Barron\'s - 09.09.2019

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September 9, 2019 BARRON’S 15


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The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its consumer


price index for August. The CPI is expected to rise


1.8% year over year, while the core CPI is seen gaining 2.3%.


Thursday


Monday 9/


Ctrip.com International reports


second-quarter earnings.


The Federal Reserve reports con-


sumer credit data for July. At the end of


June, total outstanding consumer credit


topped $4.1 trillion for the first time.


Tuesday 9/


GameStop, HD Supply Holdings,


and Zscaler report quarterly results.


The National Federation of Indepen-


dent Business releases its Small Busi-


ness Optimism Index for August.


Economists forecast a 103.5 reading,


down from July’s 104.7.


The Bureau of Labor Statistics


releases its Job Openings and Labor


Turnover Summary for July. Consen-


sus estimates are that there were 7.


million open jobs on the last business


day of July, up from 7.3 million in June.


Apple hosts a product launch event


in Cupertino, Calif. The company is


expected to unveil three iPhone 11


models.


Wednesday 9/


The BLS releases the producer price


index for August. Expectations are for


a 0.1% rise after a 0.2% gain in July.


The core PPI, which excludes volatile


food and energy, is seen increasing


0.2% after declining 0.1% in July.


Thursday 9/


Broadcom, Kroger, and Oracle hold


conference calls to discuss earnings.


The European Central Bank an-


nounces its monetary-policy decision.


The market expects the ECB to cut its


deposit rate from the current negative


0.4%. Futures markets predict a 50%


chance of a 10-basis-point reduction, to


negative 0.5%, and a 50% chance of a


20-bps cut, to negative 0.6%.


The Treasury Department releases


its monthly budget statement for


August. Consensus estimates are for a


$161 billion deficit, an increase from


July’s shortfall of $120 billion. The


Congressional Budget Office recently


projected a $960 billion deficit for


fiscal 2019, which ends in September.


That would be the largest since 2012.


H&R Block and Kraft Heinz hold


their annual meetings of shareholders


in Kansas City, Mo., and Pittsburgh,


respectively.


Mastercard and U.S. Bancorp host


investor days.


Friday 9/


The Census Bureau reports retail


sales for August. Economists forecast


a 0.1% gain, after a 0.7% jump in July—


the largest rise since March.


The University of Michigan reports


its Consumer Sentiment Index for


September. Expectations are for a


rebound to a 91 reading from Au-


gust’s 89.8 figure. The August data


was the weakest since late 2016.


TheWaitfor


5G Begins


Apple is expected to showcase a new generation of


iPhones at its Cupertino, Calif. headquarters on Tues-


day—and interest has rarely been lower.


Ahead of Apple’s “special event,” search data from


Google Trends reflects little excitement about the new


phone. Google searches for the term “iPhone” peaked in


September 2012, when the iPhone 5 was unveiled.


Though interest usually spikes around product an-


nouncements in September, the peaks have steadily de-


clined since 2016.


Consumers aren’t the only one’s feeling lukewarm


about the iPhone 11—fund managers are too, according


to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. In August, Apple’s


position in active stock funds dropped to its lowest level


since January 2016, the firm notes.


But this year’s batch of Phones is likely something of


a placeholder, with a 5G model expected to launch next


year. The 5G phone could supercharge the next upgrade


cycle, much as larger iPhones did in September 2014.


Apple’s current flagship iPhone XS starts at $999, but


a September survey by PiperJaffray showed that 23% of


iPhone owners would pay $1,200 to upgrade to a 5G


model. The demand is impressive, PiperJaffray notes,


given that consumers are just beginning to learn 5G’s


benefits, including faster speeds and more reliable ser-


vice in densely populated areas.


If the 5G iPhone commands a premium price, Wall


Street may be underestimating Apple’s future revenue.


This week’s reveal may be a snoozer, but don’t sleep


through 2020’s.—Connor Smith


Find My iPhone


Google search interest for ‘iPhone’


has steadily declined after peaking


around the iPhone 5 launch in 2012.


Wall Street’s View


iPhone sales are expected to fall, until


a 5G-inspired boost in fiscal 2021.


2010


Sept



Sept



Sept



Sept



2015


200


100


125


220


240 million


50


25


0


160


75


180


Source: Google Trends


Relative to peak value of 100


Source: FactSet


Day Consensus Estimate Year Ago

M

Casey’s General Stores (1Q) $2.03 $1.

T

Gamestop (2Q) 0.21 0.

W

Oxford Industries (2Q) 1.86 1.

More Earnings on Page M

Coming Earnings


Day Consensus Est Last Period

M July Consumer Credit $16.0 bil $14.6 bil

T July JOLTS 7,400,000 7,348,

W August PPI 0.1% 0.2%

July Wholesale Trade 0.2% 0.2%

TH August CPI 0.1% 0.3%

August Treasury Budget $-161.0 bil $-119.7 bil

F August Retail Sales 0.2% 0.7%

July Business Inventories 0.3% 0.0%

Sept Consumer Sentiment -p 91.0 89.

Unless otherwise indicated. a-Advanced; f-Final; p-Preliminary;
r-Revised

Source: FactSet

Consensus Estimate


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