September 9, 2019 BARRON’S 15
PREVIEW
QUIET TIMES FOR APPLE
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its consumer
price index for August. The CPI is expected to rise
1.8% year over year, while the core CPI is seen gaining 2.3%.
Thursday
Monday 9/
Ctrip.com International reports
second-quarter earnings.
The Federal Reserve reports con-
sumer credit data for July. At the end of
June, total outstanding consumer credit
topped $4.1 trillion for the first time.
Tuesday 9/
GameStop, HD Supply Holdings,
and Zscaler report quarterly results.
The National Federation of Indepen-
dent Business releases its Small Busi-
ness Optimism Index for August.
Economists forecast a 103.5 reading,
down from July’s 104.7.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics
releases its Job Openings and Labor
Turnover Summary for July. Consen-
sus estimates are that there were 7.
million open jobs on the last business
day of July, up from 7.3 million in June.
Apple hosts a product launch event
in Cupertino, Calif. The company is
expected to unveil three iPhone 11
models.
Wednesday 9/
The BLS releases the producer price
index for August. Expectations are for
a 0.1% rise after a 0.2% gain in July.
The core PPI, which excludes volatile
food and energy, is seen increasing
0.2% after declining 0.1% in July.
Thursday 9/
Broadcom, Kroger, and Oracle hold
conference calls to discuss earnings.
The European Central Bank an-
nounces its monetary-policy decision.
The market expects the ECB to cut its
deposit rate from the current negative
0.4%. Futures markets predict a 50%
chance of a 10-basis-point reduction, to
negative 0.5%, and a 50% chance of a
20-bps cut, to negative 0.6%.
The Treasury Department releases
its monthly budget statement for
August. Consensus estimates are for a
$161 billion deficit, an increase from
July’s shortfall of $120 billion. The
Congressional Budget Office recently
projected a $960 billion deficit for
fiscal 2019, which ends in September.
That would be the largest since 2012.
H&R Block and Kraft Heinz hold
their annual meetings of shareholders
in Kansas City, Mo., and Pittsburgh,
respectively.
Mastercard and U.S. Bancorp host
investor days.
Friday 9/
The Census Bureau reports retail
sales for August. Economists forecast
a 0.1% gain, after a 0.7% jump in July—
the largest rise since March.
The University of Michigan reports
its Consumer Sentiment Index for
September. Expectations are for a
rebound to a 91 reading from Au-
gust’s 89.8 figure. The August data
was the weakest since late 2016.
TheWaitfor
5G Begins
Apple is expected to showcase a new generation of
iPhones at its Cupertino, Calif. headquarters on Tues-
day—and interest has rarely been lower.
Ahead of Apple’s “special event,” search data from
Google Trends reflects little excitement about the new
phone. Google searches for the term “iPhone” peaked in
September 2012, when the iPhone 5 was unveiled.
Though interest usually spikes around product an-
nouncements in September, the peaks have steadily de-
clined since 2016.
Consumers aren’t the only one’s feeling lukewarm
about the iPhone 11—fund managers are too, according
to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. In August, Apple’s
position in active stock funds dropped to its lowest level
since January 2016, the firm notes.
But this year’s batch of Phones is likely something of
a placeholder, with a 5G model expected to launch next
year. The 5G phone could supercharge the next upgrade
cycle, much as larger iPhones did in September 2014.
Apple’s current flagship iPhone XS starts at $999, but
a September survey by PiperJaffray showed that 23% of
iPhone owners would pay $1,200 to upgrade to a 5G
model. The demand is impressive, PiperJaffray notes,
given that consumers are just beginning to learn 5G’s
benefits, including faster speeds and more reliable ser-
vice in densely populated areas.
If the 5G iPhone commands a premium price, Wall
Street may be underestimating Apple’s future revenue.
This week’s reveal may be a snoozer, but don’t sleep
through 2020’s.—Connor Smith
Find My iPhone
Google search interest for ‘iPhone’
has steadily declined after peaking
around the iPhone 5 launch in 2012.
Wall Street’s View
iPhone sales are expected to fall, until
a 5G-inspired boost in fiscal 2021.
2010
Sept
’
Sept
’
Sept
’
Sept
’
2015
200
100
125
220
240 million
50
25
0
160
75
180
Source: Google Trends
Relative to peak value of 100
Source: FactSet
Day Consensus Estimate Year Ago
M
Casey’s General Stores (1Q) $2.03 $1.
T
Gamestop (2Q) 0.21 0.
W
Oxford Industries (2Q) 1.86 1.
More Earnings on Page M
Coming Earnings
Day Consensus Est Last Period
M July Consumer Credit $16.0 bil $14.6 bil
T July JOLTS 7,400,000 7,348,
W August PPI 0.1% 0.2%
July Wholesale Trade 0.2% 0.2%
TH August CPI 0.1% 0.3%
August Treasury Budget $-161.0 bil $-119.7 bil
F August Retail Sales 0.2% 0.7%
July Business Inventories 0.3% 0.0%
Sept Consumer Sentiment -p 91.0 89.
Unless otherwise indicated. a-Advanced; f-Final; p-Preliminary;
r-Revised
Source: FactSet
Consensus Estimate
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what they mean - go to Barron’s free Economic Calendar at
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