14 Leaders TheEconomistMay14th 2022
A
merica’s bear season, whenhikersareadvisedtostayon
their trails and carry pepper spray, runs for twomonths
from September. It has come early for investors. Thes&p 500 in
dex of leading American stocks has fallen by 18%fromitsall
time high in January, ten percentage points of whichwasinthe
past month alone. The index is flirting with bearmarketterri
tory, a 20% decline. The nasdaq, a techheavy benchmark,has
plunged well past that level. Since November it hasshed29%.
For 18 months or so, since inflation began to climb,investors
have fretted over how much the Federal Reservewouldtighten
policy, and how painful that would be for asset prices.Thelatest
rout, which followed a meeting of the Fed on May4thatwhich
America’s central bank raised rates by 0.5 per
centage points, offers an answer: very painful.
The market expects the Fed to raise interest
rates by another 1.9 percentage points this year,
even as it shrinks its balancesheet fast. And the
more entrenched inflation becomes, the more
aggressive the Fed will have to be. Worryingly,
American households expect inflation to be
above 6% a year from now and almost 4% in
three years, according to a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank
of New York on May 9th (see Finance & economics section).
Higher real interest rates erode the present value of future
cashflows. The selloff has been vicious for technology stocks
whose valuations rest on expectations of much larger earnings
far in the future (see Business section). For the same reason,
prices of bonds with long maturities have fallen heavily. Many
speculative assets without cashflows have done even worse.
Bitcoin is trading at about $27,000, half its value in November.
One question is whether the market slump signals deeper
trouble in the economy. America’s unemployment rate is just
3.6% and more than 11m jobs remain unfilled. But the more zeal
oustheFedhastobe,themorelikelyitistocausea recession.
Meanwhile, war in Ukraine has stoked energy prices. And
China’szerocovidpolicyisdamagingitseconomyandadding
tosupplychainsnarlupsaroundtheworld.
Theotherquestioniswhetherfinancialmarketturmoilmay
eventuallyamplifyeconomicproblems,ratherthanmerelyre
flectthem.Overthepastdecadedebtandequitymarketshave
playeda biggerroleinfinance,inpartowingtotighterregula
tionthathasinhibitedriskylendingandtradingbybanks.Most
householdmortgagesnoworiginateoutsidethebankingsys
tem,andareissuedassecuritiesandheldbyinvestors.Ameri
cancompaniesget57%oftheirdebtfundingfrominvestorsin
bondmarkets,upfrom45%in2007.Banksplay
asmallerroleasthemiddlemeninfinancial
markets, theirplacetakenbycomputersand
specialisttradingfirms.
Thesestructuralchangesinthewayfinance
worksmaymeanthatmarketsaremoreprone
toboutsoferratictradingandnervousbreak
downs.Regulators,aswellasplentyofinves
tors, have worried that the newlook Treasury
market could seize up in times of stress, causing strains in the
real economy. Violent moves in asset markets may have more of
an effect not only on people’s retirement accounts and firms’
share prices, but also on their ability to borrow.
As tenyear Treasury yields have climbed from 1.6% in Janu
ary to 3% now, mortgage rates in America have shot up from
3.0% to 5.3%. Risky firms are beginning to find it hard to issue
debt. The first quarter of 2022 was the slowest for highyield
issuance since 2016. When it tried to sell $3bnworth of bonds in
late April, Carvana, a secondhandcar retailer, struggled to
attract investors even at doubledigit yields. Unfortunately, the
hikers are far from being out of the woods just yet.n
Getting to the bottomoftheplungeinAmerica’sstockmarket
NASDAQ Composite
May 3rd 2021=
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100
80
2021 2022
Grisly reality
Financial markets
W
orkplace surveillanceis nothing new. The dark Satanic
mills of 18thcentury Britain had supervisors to crack the
whip. Shops have long used cctv to monitor customers and
staff, and some factory and warehouse workers have had to face
the humiliation of timed toilet breaks. Still, if you enjoy the
comfort of a whitecollar job, you may be stunned to learn just
how much you are being watched.
Calls and emails are monitored using ever more advanced
software. Artificial intelligence (ai) is taking the snooping to
new levels, tracking everything from Zoomcall rictus and
twitchy keyboard strokes to the consistent note of irritation in
your voice, in an attempt to assess your productivity and judge
your state of mind (see Business section).
Surveillance is rising because workfromhome policies
mean that employers are keen to keep tabs on their remote
workforce. Before the pandemic, around one in ten of the large
businesses asked by Gartner, a research firm, had spying soft
ware. Within three years it expects the share to reach 70%.
Bosses also have everexpanding amounts of data at their dis
posal, enlarging the digital footprint that can be monitored.
Widely used software such as Google Workspace, Microsoft
Teams or Slack can tell managers what time you clock in or how
many calls you join on their platforms. Employee badges fitted
with motion sensors and microphones can alert bosses if some
one is loafing about. The blurring boundaries between work and
home mean that video surveillance and other intrusive tools are
Look out, office workers. You are being watched—by your boss
The professional panopticon
Surveillance at work