Encyclopedia of Psychology and Law

effect by conventional standards. Under optimal condi-

tions (high reliability; not dropping, replacing, or mod-

ifying items; fixed and equal follow-up durations), the

VRAG yields ROC areas of approximately .85. The

VRAG has been shown to generalize across outcomes

(number of violent re-offenses, institutional violence,

very serious violence, self-reported violence, general

recidivism, overall severity of violent recidivism, rapid-

ity of violent failure), follow-up times (12 weeks to 10

years); countries (seven in North America and Europe),

and offender populations (mentally disordered offend-

ers, sexual aggressors, violent felons, developmentally

delayed sex offenders, emergency psychiatric patients,

wife assaulters, and juvenile offenders). Some data sug-

gest the VRAG predicts violence among women, but

there are few studies on this.

The VRAG scores range from −26 to +38; the mean

in the development sample was 0.91 (SD=12.9), and

the standard error of measurement was 4.1. Each score

has been associated with one of nine categories, each

with a known likelihood of violent recidivism in 7 years

and increasing linearly from 0% in the lowest category

to 100% in the highest. There are also norms for

10 years of opportunity. Each VRAG score is associ-

ated with a particular percentile so that the violence risk

of an individual assessee is evaluated according to his

or her standing relative to a large sample of violent

offenders. Replications of the VRAG have generally

reported that the obtained rates of violent recidivism

matched the predicted likelihoods for each category. If

the average score of the sample is similar, the follow-up

duration is approximately the same as for the norms,

and the outcome is operationalized similarly.

The recommended basis for scoring the VRAG for

research and individual assessment is a comprehensive

psychosocial history addressing childhood conduct,

family background, antisocial and criminal behavior,

psychological problems, and details of offenses.

Adequate psychosocial histories include more than past

and present psychiatric symptoms and rely on collateral

information (i.e., material gathered from friends,

family, schools, correctional facilities, the police, and

the courts). Scoring the VRAG is not a clinical task in

its typical sense because it does not require contact

between the assessor and the person being assessed.

Nevertheless, compiling the required psychosocial his-

tory clearly is a clinical task, and expertise is required

to score VRAG items from psychosocial histories.

The VRAG scores are static inasmuch as they do not

change with time or treatment (although they might

change when rescored after offenders commit further

violent offenses). Current research is aimed at identify-

ing which changes in personal characteristics or circum-

stances make a valid additional contribution to the

assessment of violence risk based on static variables. At

this point, however, no such “dynamic” variables have

been identified in assessing which offenders are at risk

of committing violence. There is some evidence that

they might aid in predicting when violence is imminent.

In concurrent testing, actuarial tools such as the VRAG

have consistently outperformed structured and unstruc-

tured clinical judgment. Although requiring resources

and expertise, the VRAG is the most accurate and

empirically supported actuarial method for assessing the

risk of violent recidivism in forensic populations.

Marnie E. Rice and Grant T. Harris

See alsoSex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG)

Further Readings

Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Quinsey, V. L. (1993).

Violent recidivism of mentally disordered

offenders: The development of a statistical

prediction instrument. Criminal Justice and Behavior,

20,315–335.

Quinsey, V. L., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Cormier, C. A.

(2006). Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk

(2nd ed). Washington, DC: American Psychological

Association.

Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T. (1995). Violent recidivism:

Assessing predictive validity. Journal of Consulting and

Clinical Psychology, 63,737–748.

Web Sites

MHC Penetanguishene (for updated information about the

VRAG/SORAG, including replications): http://www

.mhcp-research.com

VIOLENCERISKASSESSMENT

Violence risk assessment is a decision-making task

that transpires in numerous legal and clinical settings

in which the possibility of a person’s future violent

behavior is of concern. Common contexts in which

violence risk assessment occurs include involuntary

848 ———Violence Risk Assessment

V-Cutler (Encyc)-45463.qxd 11/18/2007 12:44 PM Page 848