Rotman Management – April 2019

rotmanmagazine.ca / 21

THE POWER AND PULL OF THE MAJORITY is all around us, even if we

are unaware of its potential influence. We may believe that we

generally ‘think for ourselves’ and are persuaded only by strong

arguments; but the fact is, when faced with the opinions of oth-

ers, we often agree without a good argument — or any argument

at all. We can even lose sight of what we believe in.

Books like The Wisdom of Crowds have reinforced the as-

sumption that ‘the truth lies in numbers’. The book properly

points out the value of judgments by ‘the many’ and their supe-

riority over the judgments of experts. What may be lost on the

reader, however, is that the majority opinion is superior only in

certain circumstances. Accuracy is more likely found in numbers

if the judgment is a matter of common knowledge. For instance,

judging the number of jelly beans in a jar. Knowing who discov-

ered the transuranium elements is a different story. An expert in

Chemistry is more likely to know the name of Glenn T. Seaborg

than a dozen laypeople.

Independence of judgment is another critical element. The

average judgment of a large number of people can be accurate,

provided their judgments are independent. If they have influ-

enced one another, ten people might only have the accuracy of

one. Herding behaviour and stock bubbles demonstrate that

‘many people doing the same thing’ is not necessarily an indica-

tion of accuracy or good judgment.

The problem is not that the majority is wrong. Statistically

speaking, it may be right, depending on the task and circum-

stances. Nor is it that the judgment of ‘the many’ is without value.

The problem is that we assume that they are right simply because

they are ‘the many’ rather than ‘the few’.

What if everyone in your group expressed a judgment

that you knew was not true? You might think that you would not

care what they said or did and that you would answer correctly,

especially if you could see the truth with your own eyes. How-

ever, research stretching back more than half a century demon-

strates that the truth is no sure protection against the majority.

In general, research shows that the more difficult or am-

biguous the task, the higher the degree of following. It is also

higher among individuals who have low self-esteem or who

are attracted to the group. Even the size of the majority has a

bearing on the degree to which we follow them. Most research

IN DEFENSE

OF TROUBLEMAKERS:

Consensus, while comforting and harmonious, often leads

to bad decisions. Authentic dissent can be a powerful antidote.

by Charlan Jeanne Nemeth

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