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10 per cent chance of the optimistic scenario happening; a 50
per cent chance for the pragmatic scenario; and a 40 per cent
chance for the catastrophic scenario.
That doesn’t mean we can’t reshape things to change these
odds; that’s exactly why I wrote the book. I am hopeful about the
optimistic scenario, but the key to achieving it will be widespread
collaboration — not just amongst the G-MAFIA but throughout
society, and that is no small feat. The future of AI is not just a
technological question or a business question; it is also a geopo-
litical and geo-economics question.
One tangible way forward would be to turn AI on itself and
evaluate all of the training data that is currently in use. I believe
this can be done, and here’s why: As a side project, IBM’s India
Research Lab analyzed entries shortlisted for theMan Booker
Prize for literature between 1969 and 2017. The analysis revealed
the pervasiveness of gender bias and stereotypes in the books
themselves regarding basic features like occupation and behav-
iour associated with the characters. For example, male charac-
ters were more likely to have high-level jobs, while female char-
acters were likely to be described as ‘teacher’ or ‘whore’. If it’s
possible to use natural language processing, graph algorithms
and other basic machine learning techniques to ferret-out biases
in literary awards, those can also be used to find biases in popular
training data sets. Once problems are discovered, they should be
published and then fixed. The Big Nine—or the G-MAFIA at the
very least — could share the costs of creating new training sets.
In addition, universities could redouble their efforts by col-
laborating with public and private organizations, taking some
chances on their curriculum and making sure that there is a
broader representation of people involved — not just among stu-
dents, but among people who are being promoted through the
tenure system.
What I’m talking about here entails structural, systems-level
change over many years. But the longer we wait to get started
on it, the worse off we’re all going to be — and the closer we will
come to the catastrophic scenario. Also, leaders must recognize
that China is not backing down. It has strategic alignment and
a top-down management plan in place, as well as access to the
data of 1.3 billion citizens. And it’s about to get data from other
countries. In short, China is moving full steam ahead, while we
risk getting lost trying to figure this all out.
You note in the book that we, as individuals, also need to
change. In what way?
As more and more people begin to understand exactly what AI
is, what it isn’t and why it matters, by default, they become mem-
bers of AI’s tribes, and that means they have no more excuses.
From that day forward, you should learn about how your data
is being mined and refined by the Big Nine. You can do this by
digging into the setting of all the tools and services you use: your
email and social media, the location services on your phone, the
permission settings on all of your connected devices. The next
time you see a cool app that compares something about you
(your face, body or gestures) with a big set of data, stop for a mo-
ment to investigate whether you are helping to train a machine
learning system. When you allow yourself to be recognized, ask
where your information is being stored and for what purpose.
Read the terms of service agreements; if something seems off,
show restraint and don’t use the system.
Also, in the workplace, we must ask a difficult but impor-
tant question: How are our own biases affecting those around
us? Have we unwittingly supported or promoted only those who
look like us and reflect our worldviews? Are we unintentionally
excluding certain groups? It is time for all of us to open our eyes
and take part in shaping the future.Amy Webb is an American futurist, founder of the Future
Today Institute and Professor of Strategic Foresight at New
York University’s Stern School of Business. She is the author
of The Big Nine: How the Tech Titans and Their Thinking
Machines Could Warp Humanity (PublicAffairs, 2019).What I’m talking about entails structural, systems-level
change over many years.