IFR Magazine – June 08, 2019

(Nancy Kaufman) #1
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THEû32" ûWASûmAWEDû4HEYûAREû
seeking billions of euros in
COMPENSATION


FLAWED VALUATION
,IKEû"ANCOûDEû%SPANA ûTHEû32"û
MISSEDûVITALûOPPORTUNITIESûINûTHEû
RUN
UPûTOû0OPULARSûCOLLAPSEûTHATû
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û
MOREûTHANûõBNûOFûDEPOSITSû
WOULDûLEAVEûTHEûBANKûTHATûMONTHû


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BEENûCAUSEûFORûCONCERN ûGIVENû
THATûALMOSTûALLûTHEû32"SûROUTINEû
planning for a resolution of
0OPULARûHADûREVOLVEDûAROUNDû
POTENTIALûSOLVENCYûISSUESû
ûNOTû
LIQUIDITYûPROBLEMSû$ESPITEûTHAT û
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TOOLEDûTOûDEALû
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INûOFûFUNDINGûFORûTHEû
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AûCRISIS ûLESSûTHANûAûQUARTERûOFûITSû
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RULESûALSOûSEVERELYûLIMITEDûHOWû
THOSEûFUNDSûCOULDûBEûUSED
h4HISûWASûTHEûlRSTûCASEûINûOURû
HISTORYûANDûALLûTHEûELEMENTSû
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OURûSTRATEGYûONûTHEûBAIL
INûTOOLû
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THEûCRISIS ûITûWOULDûHAVEûBEENû
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4HEûPERSONûSAIDûTHATûTHEû32"û
QUICKLYûREALISEDûTHATûONLYûONEûOFû
the potential options in its
RESOLUTIONûTOOLBOXûWASûREALLYû
AVAILABLEûAûSALEûOFû0OPULARûTOûAû


HEALTHIERûBANKûTHATûCOULDûINJECTû
LIQUIDITYû%VENûTHEN ûITûWAITEDû
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TOGETHERûAûDETAILEDûVALUATIONûOFû
0OPULAR ûWHICHûWOULDûINFORMû
ANYûFUTUREûSALEûOFûTHEûBANK

HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
/Nû-AYûûTHEû32"ûORDEREDû
Deloitte to “strictly prioritise ...
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LIABILITIESûWHEREûTHEREûISû
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UNCERTAINTYvû4HREEûDAYSûLATERûITû
CALLEDûTOûSAYûITûTHATûTHEû
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MOREûDAYSûTOûCOMPLETEûITSûWORK
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TOûCERTAINûCRITICALûINFORMATIONvû
2EmECTINGûTHISûUNCERTAINTY û

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COULDûBEûWORTHûASûMUCHûASûõBNû
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hBESTûESTIMATEvûSCENARIO
$ESPITEûTHEûCAVEATS ûTHEû
NEGATIVEûõBNûNUMBERûFORMEDû
the basis for the sale of the bank
ANDûTALLIESûEXACTLYûWITHûTHEûLOSSESû
LATERûIMPOSEDûONûBONDHOLDERS
/Nû*UNEû ûWHILEû0OPULARûANDû
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lNALûCHECKSûONûTHEûDOOMEDû%,!û
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MADEûCONTACTûWITHû3ANTANDERû
ANDû""6! ûPIGGYBACKINGûONûAû
FAILEDûSALESûPROCESSûTHATû
INVOLVEDûlVEûINTERESTEDûPARTIES û
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!FTERûSIGNINGûNON
DISCLOSUREû
AGREEMENTSûTHEûNEXTûDAY ûTHEû
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GOINGûOVERû0OPULARSûBOOKSû
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/NLYûONEûBIDûARRIVEDûFROMû
3ANTANDER ûFORûõ ûBUTûONLYûONû

THEûCONDITIONûTHATûSHAREHOLDERSû
!4ûHOLDERSûANDû4IERûûHOLDERSû
WEREûBAILEDûIN

UPPER HAND
7ITHûINSUFlCIENTûLIQUIDITYûOFûITSû
OWNûTOûSUPPORTû0OPULAR ûANDû
HAVINGûALREADYûCONCLUDEDûTHATûAû
WINDINGûUPûOFûTHEûBANKûUNDERû
NORMALûINSOLVENCYûPROCEEDINGû
WOULDûPOSEûRISKSûTOûlNANCIALû
STABILITY ûTHEû32"ûWASûLEFTûWITHû
LITTLEûOPTIONûBUTûTOûACCEPTûTHEûOFFERû
h4HEûAUCTIONûWASûORGANISEDûSOû
QUICKLYûTHATûITûWASûDIFlCULTûFORû
ANYONEûTOûMAKEûAûSERIOUSûOFFER û
ANDûTHEûVALUATIONSûTHEYûUSEDûTOû
JUSTIFYûTHEûSALESûPRICEûWEREûALSOû
DIFlCULTûTOûUNDERSTAND vûSAIDû
!XIOMSû,EGRASûh4HEûRANGEûWASû
ENORMOUSûANDûTHEûMETHODOLOGYû
LOOKEDûMOREûLIKEûDOINGûAûlRESALEû
ONûTHEûENTIREûBALANCEûSHEETû
7ITHûTHATûSORTûOFûAPPROACH ûANYû
BANK ûEVENûTHEûMOSTûSOLIDûONE û
WILLûLOOKûVERYûWEAKv
#RITICALLY ûINVESTORSûALLEGEûTHATû
THEûSITUATIONûCLEARLYûCOMPROMISEDû
THEû32"ûANDûITSûOBLIGATIONûTOû
ENSUREûTHATûSHAREHOLDERSûANDû
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FAIRLYû3ANTANDERûHADûBEENûGIVENû
ACCESSûTOû0OPULARSûlNANCIALSûASû
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WEEKS ûANDûINTERNALûPRESENTATIONSû
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TOûõBNûFORû0OPULARûJUSTûAûFEWû
WEEKSûBEFORE ûBUTûITûHELDûOFFûONû
MAKINGûANûOFFER
/NEûPERSONûINVOLVEDûINûTHATû
FAILEDûSALESûPROCESSûSAIDûTHATû
BECAUSEû0OPULARûWASûSUDDENLYû
NOûLONGERûWORKINGûWITHûITSûOWNû
ADVISERSûTOûARRANGEûAûDEAL û
3ANTANDERûHELDûALLûTHEûCARDS
h3UDDENLYûYOUûCHANGEûYOURû
counterparty from professional
-!ûBANKERSûûûûTOûCIVILû
SERVANTSûûûûûWHOûHAVEûNEVERû
EVERûDONEûANYTHINGûLIKEûTHIS vû
SAIDûTHEûPERSON
h4HESEûCIVILûSERVANTS ûWHOû
BARELYûHAVEûTHEûCAPABILITIESûTOû

UNDERSTANDûHOWûAûBANKûISû
VALUED ûAREûCALLEDûINûDURINGûTHEû
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MISSIONûIMPOSSIBLEûnûTOûDISPOSEû
OFûASSETSûACCORDINGûTOûRULESûTHATû
WEREûTHOUGHTûUPûYEARSûBEFOREû
ANDûCOMPLETELYûDETACHEDûFROMû
THEûREALITYûOFûTHEûWAYûTHINGSû
WORKûANDûTHEûSPEEDûATûWHICHû
THINGSûHAPPENû3ANTANDERûMUSTû
HAVEûTHOUGHT û@WEûHAVEûAûGREATû
NEGOTIATINGûHANDûHEREv

INVESTOR PROTECTIONS
%UROPEANûLAWMAKERSûATûLEASTû
FORESAWûTHEûPOSSIBILITYûOFûAû
RUSHEDûRESOLUTION ûANDûWITHINû
THEûRULESûGOVERNINGûTHEû32"ûISûAû
REQUIREMENTûTOûCONDUCTûANû
hINDEPENDENTvûVALUATIONûOFûAû
BANKûAFTERûTHEûEVENTûTOû
DETERMINEûWHETHERûORûNOTû
SHAREHOLDERSûANDûBONDHOLDERSû
WEREûSHORT
CHANGED ûANDû
WHETHERûTHEYûMIGHTûHAVEûSEENûAû
BETTERûOUTCOMEûINûANûINSOLVENCYû
)FûSO ûCOMPENSATIONûISûDUE
7HILEûTHEû32"ûSAYSûSUCHûANû
ASSESSMENTûWASûMADE ûINVESTORSû
BELIEVEûITûWASûNOTûhINDEPENDENTvû
$ELOITTE ûTHEûSAMEûlRMûTHATûDIDû
THEûlRSTûASSESSMENT ûWASûASKEDû
TOûDOûIT ûWHICHûINVESTORSûSAYûISûAû
CLEARûCONmICTûOFûINTERESTû4HEû
SECONDû$ELOITTEûREPORTûCONCLUDEDû
THATûSHAREHOLDERûANDûBONDHOLDERû
LOSSESûWOULDûHAVEûBEENûMUCHû
GREATERûUNDERûAûNORMALû
INSOLVENCYûPROCESS
h4HISûISûTHEûSAFETYûVALVEûOFûTHEû
ENTIREûREGIME vûSAIDû%AST ûTHEû
LAWYERûATû1UINNû%MANUELû
h5NLESSûTHEREûISûSERIOUSûANDû
THOROUGHûREVIEWûOFûTHEû"ANCOû
0OPULARûCASEûBYûTHEû%5û'ENERALû
#OURT ûNOûLESSONSûWILLûBEû
LEARNED vûHEûSAIDûh4HISûISûOURû
ONLYûHOPEûBECAUSEûTHEû32"ûHASû
VIGOROUSLYûDENIEDûSHAREHOLDERSû
ANDûBONDHOLDERSûACCESSûTOû
DOCUMENTSûANDûDATAûFORûTHEûLASTû
TWOûYEARSûxûANDûWILLûNOTûADMITû
THATûANYTHINGûITûDIDûWASûWRONGv
4HEûRISKûOFûBOTCHEDû
RESOLUTIONSûWILLûREMAINûASûLONGû
as the current regime remains
INûPLACE ûOTHERSûBELIEVE
h4HEûPROCESSûGIVESûSOûMUCHû
LEEWAYûANDûmEXIBILITYûTOûAUTHORITIESû
THATûTHEYûPRETTYûMUCHûCANûDOû
ANYTHINGûTHEYûWANT vûSAIDû,EGRASû
h!NDûTHEûRESULTûISûTHATûYOUûCANûENDû
UPûWITHûSOMETHINGûTHATûISûFAIRLYû
REASONABLEûANDûWELLûMANAGEDûnûORû
Source: Refinitiv THEûEXACTûOPPOSITEû„

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April 3April 17May 1May 15May 29

BANCO POPULAR’S FINAL WEEKS
CLOSING SHARE PRICE, €

“Unless there is serious
and thorough review
of the Banco Popular
case by the EU General
Court, no lessons will
be learned”
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