Farmer’s Weekly – 09 August 2019

Weekly neWsWrap

22 farmer’sweekly 9 August 2019

Anincreaseintariffsonpoultry

importscouldresultinanestimated

losstoSouthAfrica’sGDPof

R1,1billioninthefirstyear,and 1440

potentialjoblossesacrosstheeconomy.

ThiswasaccordingtotheAssociation

ofMeatImportersandExporters

(AMIE),whichcommissioned

FTIConsulting to compile a report on

the broiler industry and the impact

of increased import tariffs on it.

The South African Poultry

Association had applied for tariffs

on poultry imports to be increased

from the current rate of between

12% and 37% to a flat rate of 82%.

AMIE said that these costs to

the South African economy could

not be justified based purely

on providing protection for the

domestic poultry industry.

PaulMatthew,CEOofAMIE,

said: “The solution is to adopt a

free market approach that allows

imports to supplement supply where

domestic production falls short.”

He said the only winners would

be a handful of major producers that

were already benefitting from lower

feed prices and production costs

in a “highly efficient industry”.

“The local broiler industry has

been the subject of significant levels

of protection over the years. These

may have lessened the incentive to

find solutions to problems it faces.

The study points to the maturity and

efficiency of the local industry.”

Matthew added that punitive

protectionism would lead to about

15% of local importers having to close

their doors, resulting in job losses.

However,theultimatelosers

would be consumers, who

would pay more and have fewer

purchasing options available.

AMIE said the research had shown

that if the tariff increase proposals

were accepted, chicken volumes

available locally would potentially

drop by more than 44 650t, based

on conservative assumptions.

Presenting the findings of their

research, Helanya Fourie and

Riaan Rossouw of FTI Consulting

saidthedomesticproductionof

chickenamountedtoapproximately

1,7milliontonsa year,while

importsofbroilerchickenswere

justunder2,4million tons,

with the average South African

consuming about 38kg of chicken

a year. – Pieter Dempsey

poultry

‘Higher poultry import tariffs could hurt SA’s economy’

Debateis underwayabout
whethertheCropEstimates
Committee’s(CEC)forecastfor
whitemaizeproductionforthe
2018/2019seasonis accurate.
Agriculturaleconomist
ProfJohanWillemsesaidthat
mixedmessageswereemerging,
especiallyinthewestern
productionregions.“The
CEChaspushedwhitemaize
projectionsupa bitandthere’sa
lot of debate among farmers about
whether this is really the case.”
An added concern was that
by the last week of July, only
about 40% of the white maize
crop had been harvested. He
said he had also heard rumours
of “quality issues” being
experienced in some areas.
The CEC recently released
its sixth production estimate
for summer grains for the
2018/2019 production season
and its preliminary area
estimate for winter grains.
It set the expected size of
the commercial maize crop at

nearly 11 milliontons.Thiswas

0,42%upfromtheprevious

estimate,butstill12%lower

thanthe2017/2018crop.

Theproductionforecastfor

whitemaizewassetatover

5,5milliontons,andforyellow

maize,atabout5,4milliontons.

Expectationsforsunflower

increasedmorethan7%for

a projectedharvestofmore

than 650 000t,buttheforecasts

forallothersummergrains

wereadjusteddownwards.

Thesoyabeanforecastwas

lowerednearly4%to1,17million

tons,sorghumdecreasedover

4,6%toanexpectedharvestof

justover 150 000t,andthedry

beanproductionforecastwasalso

adjustedslightlydownwards.

Thegroundnutforecastwas

Maize

Mixed reactions to white maize forecast for South Africa

adjusted downwards again by

more than 8% to below 20 000t.

Willemse said concern had

been expressed about whether

there would be sufficient seed

for planting in the new season.

When it came to winter grains,

theCECsetitspreliminaryarea

estimateforwheatatnearly

537 000ha, or almost 7%, higher

than the previous season. It

raised its area forecast in the

Free State to 125 000ha, up from

the 100 000ha planted in 2018.

According to Wandile Sihlobo,

the head of economic and

agribusiness intelligence at Agbiz,

while increased wheat plantings

were encouraging, the final

harvest, at an assumed yield of

3,45t/ ha, would be only about

1,85 million tons. This would be

lower than the previous season.

“Overall, this would mean that

South Africa’s wheat imports

could remain roughly unchanged

from the current marketing

year at 1,4 million tons in the

2020/2021 season.” – Sabrina Dean

farmers dou bt

accuracy of

projections