The Economist UK - 21.09.2019

34 Britain The EconomistSeptember 21st 2019

2 ernment’slistofshortageoccupations.“It

wasnota veryusefulshift,”saysMsRutter.

“They’veveryspecificjobs:radiographer,

balletdancer.”

Thereislittleevidencethatthework

bandetersmigrants.Surveysofasylum-

seekersfindthatonlya sixthknewbefore

theycametoBritainthattheywouldnotbe

abletowork.Kemiwasamongthosewho

assumedshewouldfinda job.Factorssuch

asabilitytospeakthelanguageand the

presenceof relativesandfriendshave a

greaterbearingona migrant’sdecisionto

cometoaparticularcountrythanshort-

termconcernsliketheapplicationprocess.

Liftingthebanwouldclearlyhelpasy-

lum-seekersthemselves.Forcedinactivity

allowsskillstoatrophyandcancontribute

tomentalillness,saysCorneliusKatonaof

theHelenBamberFoundation,acharity.

Thejobbanalsocheatsthetaxpayer,asin

practicemanyasylum-seekersfindworkin

thegreyeconomy.Two-thirdsoflegitimate

companybossesthinktheyshouldbeal-

lowedtoworkaftersixmonths,according

toa pollpublishedonSeptember16thby

Refugee Action, another charity. And

changingtheruleswouldnotnecessarily

prove avote-loser. BritishFuture found

thatthevastmajorityofvotersdonotknow

abouttheban.Morethantwo-thirdswould

supporta righttoworkaftersixmonths.

Thebanisatoddswiththerhetoricof

recentgovernmentsthatbenefitclaimants

mustcontributetosociety.“Itgoeshugely

againstthemanonthestreet’scommon

sense,”saysStephenHaleofRefugeeAc-

tion.Liftingthebanmaybetoogoodanop-

portunitytopassup.TheHomeOfficedoes

notoftenhavethechanceto pleasedo-

gooders,populistsandbossesatonce. 7

F

or a fewdays, the ExCeL convention

centre in east London was transformed

into a Disneyland for arms dealers. On Sep-

tember 10th-13th Defence & Security Equip-

ment International (dsei), one of the

world’s largest weapons bazaars, filled its

cavernous halls with enough tanks, mis-

siles and drones to invade a small country.

Towering above all of these was a full-sized

model of a sleek warplane with sprawling

wings and a nose like a bulbous arrowhead.

The aircraft in question, Tempest, is to

be the jewel in the crown of Britain’s £23bn

($29bn) defence industry. In two decades

Britain’s Eurofighter Typhoons will be re-

tiringandthefifth-generation f-35 Light-

ning will be creaking at the joints. If Britain

wants to keep flying world-class war-

planes, and to retain the expertise to build

and export them, it must start work now. To

that end, in July 2018 the government an-

nounced nearly £2bn of funding over ten

years as part of its Combat Air Strategy.

Over 1,000 people are working on Team

Tempest, as the consortium of bae Sys-

tems, Rolls-Royce, Leonardo and mbdais

known, with that number set to rise to

2,500 by 2021. The plan is to get the Tem-

pest in the air by 2035—and to “take Global

Britain into the stratosphere”, as Ben Wal-

lace, the defence secretary, put it at dsei.

Since modern warplanes are eye-water-

ingly expensive to build and buy, few coun-

tries embark on the effort alone. Britain

chalked up its first success in July, when

Sweden—a proficient manufacturer of

fighter jets, through Saab—agreed to co-

operate on future aircraft, beginning with a

one-year study due in autumn 2020. Then

on September 10th Italy announced that it

would also partner with Team Tempest.

Britain hopes that those decisions will

sway others who are mulling over the fu-

ture of their fleets, bringing technological

know-how and economies of scale. Japan,

Australia and Turkey are all mooted as po-

tential partners.

The catch is that other warplanes are

available. Several European countries are

co-operating to build their own sixth-gen-

eration “air system” (a term that reflects the

fact that the warplane itself will be only one

part of a larger network, which might in-

clude drone swarms). France, which

shunned participation in the European Ty-

phoon project and the American-led f-35,

favours its own national champion, Das-

sault. Moreover, France and Germany both

want the European Union to develop a

more integrated and mature defence in-

dustry, capable of holding its own against

American behemoths.

At the Paris Air Show in June, the

French, German and Spanish defence min-

isters announced a partnership between

Dassault and Airbus, funded with €4bn

($4.4bn) to 2025, building on an earlier

Tempest-like initiative known as Future

Combat Air System. It was a “big day for the

European defence union”, noted Ursula

von der Leyen, then German defence min-

ister and now president-elect of the Euro-

pean Commission.

Yet for all this flurry of activity, there is

scepticism that the result will be two flying

planes. “Competition among Europeans

when it weakens us against the Americans

[and] the Chinese is ridiculous,” com-

plained Emmanuel Macron, France’s presi-

dent, in June. The economic logic might

suggest that the British-led project and

continental one ought to merge. But the

political logic says otherwise. France is set

on a plane that can take off from aircraft-

carriers and carry nuclear bombs, whereas

Britain has the f-35 for that. The rivalry be-

tween baeand Dassault will also be hard to

surmount; neither would readily give up

its lead status. And Britain’s close military

ties with America make it sceptical of the

idea of a common European defence-in-

dustrial front.

As ever, Brexit adds a wrinkle. If and

when Britain leaves the eu, it will be

pushed to the fringes of the bloc’s defence

projects, and cut out of some entirely. Ear-

lier this month Britain even asked the euto

downgrade the defence pledges made in

the non-binding political declaration of

the withdrawal agreement, seeking a more

complete break. Many Europeans would

consider it odd for the bloc to bolster its in-

digenous defence capabilities, only to put

its future air-power in the hands of a dip-

lomatically freewheeling outsider. 7

Britain’s next-generation warplane is

heading for a dogfight with an eurival

Defence industry

Tempestuous

times

Melted into air