The EconomistSeptember 21st 2019 Europe 432
1T
heswearing-inthismonthofa
governmentyokingthepopulistFive
StarMovementtothecentre-leftDemo-
craticParty(pd) wasa bigrelieftoin-
vestorsinItaly’svolatilegovernment
debtandtootherswitha stakeinthe
country’spoliticalstability.Amongother
things,thenewalignmentpromisedto
keeptheNorthernLeague,a Eurosceptic
andnativistpartyledbyMatteoSalvini,
outofofficeuntilatleast 2023 whenthe
nextgeneralelectionisdue.
ButonSeptember17thItalianpolitics
wereoncemorecastintocommotion.
MatteoRenzi,primeministerforalmost
threeyearsuntilDecember2016,an-
nouncedhewasleavingthepdtoforma
separateparliamentarycaucus.That
appearedtobehisfirststeptowardsthe
foundationofa newcentristpartyalong
thelinesofFrance’sLaRépubliqueen
MarcheandSpain’sCiudadanos.
MrRenzicalledtheincumbentprime
minister,GiuseppeConte,toassurehim
thatthenewgroupwouldcontinueto
supportthegovernment.Andit wassoon
apparentthata majorityofMrRenzi’s
followersinparliamentintendedstaying
inthepd. Untilnow,hehasbeenableto
countontheloyaltyofmorethanhalftheparty’s111 deputiesand51 senators.Yet
onlyabout20-oddinthelowerhouse
and 13 intheupperwerereportedlypre-
paredtojoinhim.Pollstersmusedthat,
inanelection,MrRenzi’sproposednew
partywouldscrapeonly5%orsoofthe
nationalvote.Marketsstayedcalm,with
thespreadbetweenItalyandGerman
bondsincreasingonlyfractionally.
Thedanger,though,isthatMrRenzi
willsoonhavethemeanstostripthe
governmentofitsmajority.Oneassess-
ment,whichcheersthemarkets,isthat
thiswillenablehimtoimposemoderate,
business-friendlypoliciesontheco-
alition.Butanotherview,considerably
morealarming,isthatMrRenzi,who
steppeddownasleaderofthepdlast
year,remainshungryforpowerandwill
disposeofthegovernmentassoonashe
believesit isinhisintereststodoso.
MrRenzi,stillonly44,oncerevelled
inthenicknamerottamatore, “demoli-
tionman”.Thatwasmeanttoreflecthis
energy,determinationandreforming
zeal.Butthegreatestdestructionthe
formerprimeministerwreakedwason
hisownparty,whichsplitoncebefore
whilehewasinoffice.Hemaybeabout
tocompletethejob.Demolitionman
ItalyROME
Matteo Renzi quits his Democratic Party just after it returns to governmentlan and Basque nationalists smacked of a
first blow in the blame game rather than a
serious move.
Mr Sánchez’s team reckons it will make
gains in November. Opinion polls suggest
that it may be right, that the conservative
opposition People’s Party (pp) will do well
too, and that voters will turn against the
three newer parties, Ciudadanos, Podemos
and the right-wing Vox. Their emergence
reflects public anger, first at the banking
crisis and economic slump in 2008-13, and
then at the illegal bid for independence by
separatists in the Catalan regional govern-
ment in 2017. As the political system has
fragmented since 2015, the country has
been condemned to a series of weak minor-
ity governments.
Spaniards generally like voting, per-
haps because they were denied it for 40
years under General Franco’s dictatorship.
But their patience is being tried. The first
risk for Mr Sánchez is that turnout drops
sharply from April’s 76%; lower turnout
tends to hit the left disproportionately. The
second risk is that the November vote
merely prolongs the stalemate.
A strong, stable and reformist govern-
ment is urgently needed. A robust eco-nomic recovery has slowed markedly this
year. That is one reason the Socialists had
second thoughts about Podemos: their pu-
tative coalition would have involved some
attractive but unaffordable promises and
Mr Sánchez would have been the bad cop
who had to say no, says José Ignacio Torre-
blanca, a political scientist in Madrid. Next
month the Supreme Court will deliver its
verdict in a long-running trial of 12 Catalan
separatist leaders for their part in the un-
constitutional independence bid. If it
metes out long jail sentences, civil disobe-
dience in Catalonia may follow.
Many commentators long for Spain’s
political leaders to adopt the coalition hab-
its of other European democracies. They
have not done so partly because the party
system is still in flux. “The main players
have all been hyper-tactical,” says a former
official. “They are bad managers of tactics
and are not measuring their words well.”
Mr Sánchez got to the Moncloa palace
through a mixture of obstinacy and daring,
and by tacking left. But he has not handled
the past few months well. The November
election will be a battle for the centre. Its af-
termath will require compromise if Spain’s
democracy is not to suffer more damage. 7F
lying in perfect formation, they
wheel over the runway before touching
down. For now these pigeons are the only
ones making active use of Albania’s Kucova
air base. Not for long, though. Early next
year heavy machinery is expected to be
moving in to upgrade this otherwise silent
air base into a natoone. Seventy-one rust-
ing and broken Soviet and Chinese planes
will be evicted. “The glory days are coming
back,” says Viktor Vangjeli, aged 78, a re-
tired migpilot.
Communist Albania had a formidable
air force, but by 2005 safety concerns and a
lack of cash meant that the last of its migs
were grounded. In Kucova they sit forlorn
on flat tyres. Lettering on fuel tanks recalls
the 1970s, when engineers from China as-
sembled the migs they had shipped here
and when men like Mr Vangjeli trained
there. Now the Albanian air force flies just
helicopters. Kucova plays host only to oc-
casional agricultural planes and a few mil-
itary visitors. It remains open in case of
emergencies.
A natoteam is deciding how it will in-
vest around $50m in a first phase of up-
grading the base. Albania has been a mem-
ber of natosince 2009, having left the
Warsaw Pact in 1968 after years of disagree-
ment with Russia. The plan is not for the al-
liance to have jets based there perma-
nently, but for it to be an operational base
for refuelling and for ammunition to be
stored in its communist-era tunnels, origi-KUCOVA
Once part of the Warsaw Pact, Albania
will soon host a natoair baseAlbaniaChanging sides
Look on my works, ye mighty