The Economist UK - 21.09.2019

60 Middle East & Africa The EconomistSeptember 21st 2019

2 ShalehasmadeAmericatheworld’sbig-

gestoilproducer,butDonaldTrumpcan-

notrampproductionupanddownbecause

hedoesnotcontrolshalecompanies.Ifoil

pricesrisemanyshalefirmswouldproba-

blyreturncashtoshareholdersratherthan

boostoutput, saysChrisMidgleyofs&p

GlobalPlatts,anenergyanalyticsfirm.

Allthispointstouncomfortablereali-

tiesfortheworld’stwoenergysuperpow-

ers.DespitetalkofAmericaasa newswing

producer,itisSaudiArabiathatremains

theoilmarket’scentral banker,withits

ability to dialproduction upand down

quickly,helpingtokeeppricessteadier.But

marketscannolongerignorethethreatsto

itssupply.MeanwhileclaimsofAmerican

energyindependencehaveneverlookedso

hollow.EvenwithAmericasettobecomea

netexporterofoil,itstillimported10m

barrelsadaylastyear,notleastbecause

shale produces light, sweet crude and

many of its refineriesneed heavy, sour

stuff.Ifoilpricesriseelsewhere,theyrise

in America, too. Mr Trumpclaims that

American“energydominance”makesthe

countrylesslikelytobeentangledincon-

flictsabroad.It doesn’tlookthatway. 7

B

inyamin netanyahuspent the last two

hours of voting in Israel’s general elec-

tion on September 17th speaking through a

camera to an online audience, begging peo-

ple to come out and vote for Likud, his rul-

ing party, before it was too late. “All the bat-

tles I fought as a soldier in an elite unit, all

the battles I fought against a president of

the United States [Barack Obama], all my

other battles in Congress and at the United

Nations—I did it for you. And now I’m ask-

ing you for something small. Go the polling

station. It’s only a five-minute walk.”

As he wheedled and begged his voice

grew hoarser. He took phone-calls from

fans. Occasionally he stood up to gesture at

a map of the Middle East on the wall, point-

ing to the menace of Iran. At one point, he

mockingly showed puppets of his rivals. It

was a bravura and sometimes bizarre per-

formance of an embattled prime minister,

frantic for every last vote. For the first time

in over a decade he was staring at defeat. As

the results came in, they confirmed that he

had failed. Likud and the clutch of right-

wing and religious parties backing him

would lack a majority in the new Knesset.

On May 30th, seven weeks after the pre-

vious election, Mr Netanyahu took the un-

precedented step of dissolving the Knesset

to call for a second election, since he was

just one seat short of a majority in the 120-

strong parliament. Now he is short by six.

He had thrown everything at his foes.

He had accused them of treasonous behav-

iour. He smeared Israel’s Arab citizens with

allegations of voter-fraud (Facebook brief-

ly suspended a chatbot on his page after a

message accused Arabs of wanting “to de-

stroy us all”). He promised his right-wing

base that he would annex chunks of the oc-

cupied West Bank. And he tried to enlist

other world leaders, including Donald

Trump and Vladimir Putin, to endorse him.

But this time it wasn’t enough. The man

dubbed “the magician” for defying the

odds to pull off improbable election victo-

ries had run out of tricks.

About 54% of Israel’s voters picked par-

ties opposed to Mr Netanyahu. Some are

right-wingers who back many of Mr Netan-

yahu’s policies yet refused to vote for Likud

or its allies. This was a personal rebuff.

Ironically, a key constituency that

helped bring him down was the Arab one,

which he had tried to deter from voting

with a law, which failed to pass, that would

have let party officials film voters in poll-

ing-stations. The turnout of Arab voters

rose by around ten percentage points.

Their Joint List won three extra seats.

Mr Netanyahu has not yet had to con-

cede. He will remain in office as a caretaker

prime minister until a new government is

sworn in. That can take months. Benny

Gantz, a former general who leads the cen-

trist Blue and White party, which is now

narrowly the largest in the Knesset, lacks a

majority too. Mr Netanyahu’s assorted op-

ponents do not share enough common

ground to form their own coalition govern-

ment. Many Israelis refuse to consider the

Arab parties as legitimate coalition part-

ners, though a growing number of Arab

voters want to play a bigger role.

So Israeli politics looks deadlocked all

over again. But there is a precedent for solv-

ing the conundrum. In 1984 neither Likud

nor its main rival, the Labour party, could

form a ruling coalition. Instead they agreed

to a national-unity government with a “ro-

tation” between Labour’s leader, Shimon

Peres, and Likud’s Yitzhak Shamir, with

each agreeing to serve two years of the

prime minister’s term.

This just might work again. Likud and

Blue and White are nearly even in their

tally of seats. Together they command a

majority, which could be strengthened by a

couple of other parties joining such a co-

alition. Mr Gantz is experienced in military

matters, having commanded Israel’s army,

but is a political novice. He could benefit

from working with Mr Netanyahu.

But big obstacles remain. On October

2nd Mr Netanyahu faces a pre-trial hearing

before the attorney-general, which may

herald criminal charges for bribery and

fraud. Mr Gantz has promised not to serve

under an indicted prime minister. Mr Net-

anyahu, however, hopes that by clinging to

office he will be shielded from prosecu-

tion. Had he won even a narrow majority,

he could have tried to pass a law granting

immunity. That prospect is now fading.

A third obstacle to forming a national-

unity government is the former defence

minister, Avigdor Lieberman, a hardliner

whose party, Yisrael Beitenu, broke last

year with Mr Netanyahu’s coalition. He is

now refusing to back either candidate for

prime minister without a promise to pass a

bunch of laws that would enrage the reli-

gious parties, who are Mr Netanyahu’s

closest allies. Among these is a law that

would conscript religious seminary stu-

dents into the army. Another would force

ultra-Orthodox schools to teach a national

curriculum or lose state funding. And an-

other would cancel a prohibition on shops

from opening on the Sabbath, the sacred

day of rest. Once notorious for vilifying Is-

raeli-Arab citizens, Mr Lieberman can now

be credited with bringing Mr Netanyahu

down. As well as acting as kingmaker, he

wants to establish himself as the champion

of secular Israelis, who complain of the

rabbis’ excessive influence in politics.

But Mr Netanyahu is not going any-

where yet. Despite losing his majority

twice this year and still facing indictments,

he will try to stymie any attempt to form a

coalition without him. He has yet to realise

he is no longer the magician. 7

JERUSALEM

Israel’s prime minister will struggle to

stay in office

Israel’s election conundrum

Down but not out

Try and try again

Sources: CentralElectionsCommittee;pressreports *98%ofthevotecounted

ElectionsinIsrael’sKnessetbypartyandpoliticalstance, 120 seatsavailable

April 2019

September

2019*

YisraelBeiteinu 5

Right-wingandreligiousparties 63

Right-wingandreligiousparties 65

Centrist,leftandArabparties 57

Centrist,leftandArabparties 55

Likud 35

United

Right 5

Blue & White 35

Meretz 4 Kulanu 4

Labour 6

Yamina 7

UTJ 8 Shas 8

Blue & White 33 Likud 31

Arab

parties 13

Arab

parties 10

Democratic Union 5

Labour 6

UTJ 8 Shas 9

Yisrael Beiteinu 8