The Economist UK - 21.09.2019

The EconomistSeptember 21st 2019 63

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nnorthjakarta, notfarfroma quay-

sidewhereworkersunloadfrozenmack-

erel,a derelictbuildingstandsa metredeep

in murky water. The warehouse was

floodedin2007,aftertorrentialrainsanda

tidalsurgesubmergedhalfthecityunder

nearlyfourmetresofwater,displacinghalf

amillion peopleand causing$550m in

damage.Thebuildinghasremainedinun-

datedandabandonedeversince—barring

thehardysoulwhoseemstobecampingon

thefirstfloor,aidedbya rowingboat.

FloodshavealwaysplaguedJakarta,but

inrecentyearstheyhavebecomemorese-

vere.ManyothercitiesinAsiaaremenaced

bythesamephenomenon.Astheplanet

heatsup,sealevelsarerising.Heavyrain-

stormsarealsobecomingmorefrequent

and tropical cyclones more intense. And

Asia’s coastal cities are growing, even as

the risk of flooding increases. The number

of people living in flood plains in Asia is ex-

pectedtomorethandoublebetween 2000

and2060,accordingtotheAsianDevelop-

mentBank(adb). Ascitiesgrow,theyexac-

erbateflood-riskbycoveringground that

wouldoncehaveabsorbedwaterwith con-

creteandasphalt.Theamountandvalue of

thepropertyatriskalsogrows.Thirteen of

the 20 citiesprojectedtohavethebiggest

increasesinannuallossescausedbyflood-

ingbetween 2005 and 2050 areinAsia.

Jakartaexemplifiesthetypicalresponse

torisingtidesandswellingrains.Though

Akuarium,a neighbourhoodofshanties, is

onthecoast,itisimpossibletoseethe sea

from its dirt streets. A three-metre-tall sea

wall stands in the way. For centuries Jakar-

ta’s authorities have dispatched engineers

to hold back the rising waters. In the 18th

century they built flood canals; in the 19th

century, retention ponds. After the floods

of 2007 they raised the existing 30km-long

sea wall, widened and dredged the canal

system and dug more retention ponds. The

idea that the water would recede if only na-

ture could be tamed still motivates Indone-

sia’s planners. After another disastrous

flood in 2013, the president of the day in-

structed his ministers to be bolder. The re-

sult was the National Capital Integrated

Coastal Development (ncicd), a $40bn

mega-project consisting of a 25km outer

sea wall and 17 artificial islands which

would seal off Jakarta Bay.

The plan was controversial because of

its huge cost, the damage it would do to the

maritime ecosystem in the enclosed bay

and the fact that it did not deal with a sig-

nificant cause of flooding in Jakarta: subsi-

dence. Though the sea is rising by 0.8cm a

year, parts of northern, coastal Jakarta are

sinking by 25cm a year, according to Heri

Andreas, a geologist at the Bandung Insti-

tute of Technology. At least 40% of resi-

dents tap into aquifers, either because they

are not connected to mains water or, if they

are, because their supply is unreliable and

dirty. As they drain the water from under

their feet, the soil is compressed. Forty per-

Planningforrisingsealevels

Indeeptrouble

JAKARTAANDSINGAPORE

Climatechangeisforcinglow-lyingAsiancitiestorethinktheirflooddefences

Asia

64 HazeengulfsSouth-EastAsia

65 ChinesestudentsinAustralia

65 Africanswineflumarcheson

66 Banyan: Democrats v dictators on

climate change

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