The Economist USA - 21.09.2019

(Barré) #1

54 Middle East & Africa The EconomistSeptember 21st 2019


2 ShalehasmadeAmericatheworld’sbig-
gestoilproducer,butDonaldTrumpcan-
notrampproductionupanddownbecause
hedoesnotcontrolshalecompanies.Ifoil
pricesrisemanyshalefirmswouldproba-
blyreturncashtoshareholdersratherthan
boostoutput, saysChrisMidgleyofs&p
GlobalPlatts,anenergyanalyticsfirm.
Allthispointstouncomfortablereali-
tiesfortheworld’stwoenergysuperpow-
ers.DespitetalkofAmericaasa newswing
producer,itisSaudiArabiathatremains
theoilmarket’scentral banker,withits
ability to dialproduction upand down
quickly,helpingtokeeppricessteadier.But
marketscannolongerignorethethreatsto
itssupply.MeanwhileclaimsofAmerican
energyindependencehaveneverlookedso
hollow.EvenwithAmericasettobecomea
netexporterofoil,itstillimported10m
barrelsadaylastyear,notleastbecause
shale produces light, sweet crude and
many of its refineriesneed heavy, sour
stuff.Ifoilpricesriseelsewhere,theyrise
in America, too. Mr Trumpclaims that
American“energydominance”makesthe
countrylesslikelytobeentangledincon-
flictsabroad.It doesn’tlookthatway. 7

B


inyamin netanyahuspent the last two
hours of voting in Israel’s general elec-
tion on September 17th speaking through a
camera to an online audience, begging peo-
ple to come out and vote for Likud, his rul-
ing party, before it was too late. “All the bat-
tles I fought as a soldier in an elite unit, all
the battles I fought against a president of
the United States [Barack Obama], all my
other battles in Congress and at the United
Nations—I did it for you. And now I’m ask-
ing you for something small. Go the polling
station. It’s only a five-minute walk.”
As he wheedled and begged his voice
grew hoarser. He took phone-calls from
fans. Occasionally he stood up to gesture at
a map of the Middle East on the wall, point-
ing to the menace of Iran. At one point, he
mockingly showed puppets of his rivals. It
was a bravura and sometimes bizarre per-
formance of an embattled prime minister,
frantic for every last vote. For the first time
in over a decade he was staring at defeat. As
the results came in, they confirmed that he
had failed. Likud and the clutch of right-
wing and religious parties backing him
would lack a majority in the new Knesset.
On May 30th, seven weeks after the pre-

vious election, Mr Netanyahu took the un-
precedented step of dissolving the Knesset
to call for a second election, since he was
just one seat short of a majority in the 120-
strong parliament. Now he is short by six.
He had thrown everything at his foes.
He had accused them of treasonous behav-
iour. He smeared Israel’s Arab citizens with
allegations of voter-fraud (Facebook brief-
ly suspended a chatbot on his page after a
message accused Arabs of wanting “to de-
stroy us all”). He promised his right-wing
base that he would annex chunks of the oc-
cupied West Bank. And he tried to enlist
other world leaders, including Donald
Trump and Vladimir Putin, to endorse him.
But this time it wasn’t enough. The man
dubbed “the magician” for defying the
odds to pull off improbable election victo-
ries had run out of tricks.
About 54% of Israel’s voters picked par-
ties opposed to Mr Netanyahu. Some are
right-wingers who back many of Mr Netan-
yahu’s policies yet refused to vote for Likud
or its allies. This was a personal rebuff.
Ironically, a key constituency that
helped bring him down was the Arab one,
which he had tried to deter from voting
with a law, which failed to pass, that would
have let party officials film voters in poll-
ing-stations. The turnout of Arab voters
rose by around ten percentage points.
Their Joint List won three extra seats.
Mr Netanyahu has not yet had to con-
cede. He will remain in office as a caretaker
prime minister until a new government is
sworn in. That can take months. Benny
Gantz, a former general who leads the cen-
trist Blue and White party, which is now
narrowly the largest in the Knesset, lacks a
majority too. Mr Netanyahu’s assorted op-
ponents do not share enough common
ground to form their own coalition govern-
ment. Many Israelis refuse to consider the
Arab parties as legitimate coalition part-
ners, though a growing number of Arab
voters want to play a bigger role.
So Israeli politics looks deadlocked all
over again. But there is a precedent for solv-
ing the conundrum. In 1984 neither Likud
nor its main rival, the Labour party, could
form a ruling coalition. Instead they agreed
to a national-unity government with a “ro-

tation” between Labour’s leader, Shimon
Peres, and Likud’s Yitzhak Shamir, with
each agreeing to serve two years of the
prime minister’s term.
This just might work again. Likud and
Blue and White are nearly even in their
tally of seats. Together they command a
majority, which could be strengthened by a
couple of other parties joining such a co-
alition. Mr Gantz is experienced in military
matters, having commanded Israel’s army,
but is a political novice. He could benefit
from working with Mr Netanyahu.
But big obstacles remain. On October
2nd Mr Netanyahu faces a pre-trial hearing
before the attorney-general, which may
herald criminal charges for bribery and
fraud. Mr Gantz has promised not to serve
under an indicted prime minister. Mr Net-
anyahu, however, hopes that by clinging to
office he will be shielded from prosecu-
tion. Had he won even a narrow majority,
he could have tried to pass a law granting
immunity. That prospect is now fading.
A third obstacle to forming a national-
unity government is the former defence
minister, Avigdor Lieberman, a hardliner
whose party, Yisrael Beitenu, broke last
year with Mr Netanyahu’s coalition. He is
now refusing to back either candidate for
prime minister without a promise to pass a
bunch of laws that would enrage the reli-
gious parties, who are Mr Netanyahu’s
closest allies. Among these is a law that
would conscript religious seminary stu-
dents into the army. Another would force
ultra-Orthodox schools to teach a national
curriculum or lose state funding. And an-
other would cancel a prohibition on shops
from opening on the Sabbath, the sacred
day of rest. Once notorious for vilifying Is-
raeli-Arab citizens, Mr Lieberman can now
be credited with bringing Mr Netanyahu
down. As well as acting as kingmaker, he
wants to establish himself as the champion
of secular Israelis, who complain of the
rabbis’ excessive influence in politics.
But Mr Netanyahu is not going any-
where yet. Despite losing his majority
twice this year and still facing indictments,
he will try to stymie any attempt to form a
coalition without him. He has yet to realise
he is no longer the magician. 7

JERUSALEM
Israel’s prime minister will struggle to
stay in office

Israel’s election conundrum

Down but not out


Try and try again

Sources: CentralElectionsCommittee;pressreports *98%ofthevotecounted

ElectionsinIsrael’sKnessetbypartyandpoliticalstance, 120 seatsavailable

April 2019

September
2019*

YisraelBeiteinu 5

Right-wingandreligiousparties 63

Right-wingandreligiousparties 65

Centrist,leftandArabparties 57

Centrist,leftandArabparties 55

Likud 35

United
Right 5
Blue & White 35
Meretz 4 Kulanu 4

Labour 6

Yamina 7

UTJ 8 Shas 8

Blue & White 33 Likud 31

Arab
parties 13

Arab
parties 10

Democratic Union 5

Labour 6
UTJ 8 Shas 9
Yisrael Beiteinu 8
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