FRONTLINE. AUGUST2,2019 50strongman-in-waiting,Gen.Khalifa Haftar,againstthe
internationallyrecognised government in Tripoli.
According to reports,it wasthebehind-the-scenes
roleof theUnitedStates,SaudiArabia andtheUnited
ArabEmirates(UAE)thatpushedthe Sudanese military
intoseriousnegotiationswiththe opposition. Thereis a
perceptionin Sudanthatthe June3 attackswerecarried
out withthe tacitapprovalof SaudiArabiaandthe UAE.
Sudan’stopmilitary leaders visitedRiyadh,AbuDhabi
andCairobefore theyorderedthecrackdown.After
Bashir’s ouster, SaudiArabia, the UAEandEgyptvoiced
theirsupport for the militaryjuntathatreplacedBashir.
TheSaudis andtheEmiratishadevenpromisedto
bailouttheSudaneseeconomyby offeringbillionsof
dollarsin aidafterBashir’souster.TahirOsmanal-
Hussein,whowasoncea closeassociateof theformer
President,hadcomeback to Sudanfromexilein Saudi
Arabia.He is knownto be closeto the Saudiroyals. After
he felloutwithBashirandescaped to Riyadh,he was
appointedas a specialadviseron Africanaffairsin the
Saudiroyal court.ManySudanesesuspectthathe played
somekindof a rolein recent events. Accordingto reports
in theAmerican media,RiyadhandAbuDhabihadan
apparent change of heartaftertheJune3 crackdown.
GeneralMohamedHamdanDagalo(widely knownas
Hemeti), whosupervisedthe crackdown,wasin Riyadha
fewdaysearlier,meetingwithMohamedbinSalman.
Thetwoare known to be exceptionallyclose.Dagalo has
beeninstrumental in despatchingthousandsof Sudanese
mercenaries to helptheSaudis in theirbrutalwarin
Yemen.
According to reports,theSaudis andtheEmiratis
becamealarmed withthe growingunpopularityof their
closestallyamongtheSudanesepeople.Thetwomon-
archiesreportedlyplayeda rolein kick-starting a new
roundof talks,whichresultedin the latestdeal.
TheGulfmonarchieshaveinvestedin hugeland
purchasesin Sudan for agriculturalpurposes andalso
dependon the countryto a greatextentfor meatimports.
Instability in Sudan,oneof the mostimportantcoun-
triesin the region,would addto the chaosalready preval-
ent there. Thelastthingthe U.S.andits allieswantis the
establishmentof a government in Sudanthatis detri-
mental to theirinterests.TheGulfmonarchiesandtheir
regional alliessuchas Egyptfearthatthe MuslimBroth-
ers couldfill the politicalvacuumif the unrestcontinues
in Sudan.Egypt shareswithSudana longborder andthe
watersof the Nile.RULINGARRANGEMENT
Underthe agreement,five seatsin the councilwouldgo
to themilitary andfive to representativesfromcivilian
partiesandgroupsthatspearheaded theprotestmove-
ment.Oneadditionalseatin the proposedrulingcouncil
willbe givento a civilianwhois acceptableto boththe
militaryandtheprotestmovement.TherulingTrans-
itionalMilitary Council(TMC)has agreedto a key oppos-
ition demand of starting a “transparent and
independent” investigationintothe June3 killings.Un-der the termsof the newagreement, anyone foundguilty
willnotbe allowedto holda position of powerin the
sovereigncouncil. A militaryofficerwillleadthe sover-
eigncouncil for thefirst 21 months,afterwhich a civilian
willtakeoverfor the remainderof the council’sterm.The
headof the TMC,Gen.AbdelFattahal-Burhan,willbe
thefirst interimleader.TheForcesforFreedomand
Change(FFC),the umbrellagroupof oppositionparties
thathasbeenin theforefrontof thestruggleto restore
civilian rule,hasbeengiventhe taskof selecting Cabinet
Ministersafterthe sovereigncounciltakesoverfromthe
military junta.
Themilitary hasso far opposedtheformationof a
purelycivilianlegislature. Forthenextthreeyearsthe
country in all probability will be run without a
parliament.
TheparamilitaryRapidSupportForces(RSF) under
General Dagalohasbeenaccused of sexually assaulting
womenprotesters. It is widelybelievedthattheJune 3
atrocityon unarmed civilianswouldnothavecometo
passwithoutthe approvalof the headof RSF.Theoppos-
itionhascalledfor the immediatedispersal of the para-
militaryforcesfromKhartoumandothermajorcities,
removal of the curbs on the Internet andthe releaseof all
politicalprisoners.
Gen.Dagalo,whois formallythe deputyheadof the
TMC,is viewed as therealpowerbrokerin thecurrent
militarydispensationin Sudan.Hehasbeen quickto
welcometheagreement withthecivilian opposition
groups, saying thatthe deal“willnotexcludeanyone”.
All the importantoppositionleadersalsowelcomed
the deal.TheSudaneseProfessionalAssociation,which
playeda keyrolein theprotests thatbroughtdown
Bashir,issueda statementwelcomingtheagreement.
“Today ourrevolutionhaswonandourvictory shines,”
the statement said.Omar Eldigair, the leaderof the FFC,
saidthat the agreement “opens the wayfor the formation
of the institutionsof transitional authority,andwe hope
thatthisis the beginningof a newera”.
Thecivilianoppositionrealisesthatit cannotafford
to lowerits guard. KhaledOmar,a protestleader, has
cautionedthatthe agreementis onlya “first step”.Many
civilianleaders feel the protestsshouldcontinueto keep
the pressure onthe militaryand preventit from
reneging on its commitments as it hasdoneso many
times in the past.Theyfearthatthe concessions given by
the militaryjuntaare a ployto buytime.Theopposition
hadin anycasemademanyconcessions for a deal to be
facilitated.
Gen.Dagalo hastoomuchat stake to playsecond
fiddle to a civilianadministration for long.Besides mak-
ing top dollarby sendingfightersto Yemen, he has stakes
in lucrativegoldminesin Darfur,his military powerbase.
Khartoumitselfis occupiedby the RSF, whichis manned
by the former“Janjaweed”fightersof Darfur. TheJanja-
weed, a militia comprising mainly Sudanese Arabs,
playeda key rolealongside the Sudanesearmyduringthe
warin Darfur.Thelong-sufferingpeopleof Sudancould. be in for a longhaulbeforepopularruleis restored. $
.
.