◼ POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek November 18, 201940
“It’s a safe
assumption
that they will
go after Adam”● A snap election setback makes Prime Minister Sánchez
more dependent on the rival Podemas partySpain’s High-
Stakes Gamble
BillClintonandmorethan 46 yearsaftera
special Senate committee held televised public
hearings that helped lead to President Richard
Nixon’s resignation. Washington politics and
media coverage have changed radically: TV and
radio outlets that openly cater to the Right or the
Left will attempt to spin viewers’ opinions, even as
others absorb the hearings via social media plat-
forms, which are gearing up to stream the pro-
ceedings in real time.
There’s another major difference this time
around, says Joshua Huder, a senior fellow at
the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown
University: time. The Watergate investigation
unfoldedoverthecourseofa year,whilethe
Clintonimpeachmentfolloweda longspecial-
counsel investigation. “House Democrats and
Chairman Adam Schiff are trying to do both
between Sept. 25 and Christmas,” Huder says.
“It’s a tall order.”
Huder says he expects the House will impeach
Trump, and the only question in both chambers
will be whether there’s any bipartisan backing.
“While the president’s support on Capitol Hill
is not very good, he continues to garner consis-
tent support from roughly 41% of the public,”
Huder says. “It’s unclear Schiff can move the nee-
dle given strong partisan dynamics bolstering
Trump’s support and the short time frame he has
to accomplish it.”
If the House does vote to impeach, Senate
Democrats will need to persuade at least
20 Republicans to vote for Trump’s removal from
office,whichwillbepracticallyimpossiblewithout
a broadbaseofpublicsupport.Sofar,Republican
senatorshavebeenmostlytight-lipped,neither
breakingwiththepresidentnorofferinghimtheir
full-throatedsupport.Lawmakersfrombothpar-
tieswillbewatchingcloselytoseeif theopenhear-
ingsswayvoters’opinions.
Publicsupportforimpeachmenthasgrown
sincetheHousebeganitsinquiry,butthosenum-
bershavelargelystabilized,showinga pluralityor
baremajorityofAmericansinfavor.AnNBC/Wall
StreetJournalpollreleasedonNov.3 foundthat49%
wanttoseeTrumpimpeachedandremovedfrom
office,while46%don’t.Othersurveyswithsimilar
resultsshowsupportforimpeachmentis mostly
drivenbyDemocrats,85%ofwhomsaythey’re
pro-impeachment,accordingtoanearlyNovember
MonmouthUniversitypoll,comparedwith42%of
independentsandjust8%ofRepublicans.
The hearings were scheduled to continue on
Nov. 15, with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine
Marie Yovanovitch, who’s already testified inIt wasApril28,electionnight,andSpain’sacting
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez was on top of
the world. His Socialist party had gone from
85 seats to 123 in the 350-seat chamber, and the
176 seats needed for an absolute majority seemed
to be within the party’s sights. He was tiring of
Podemos, the anti-austerity party that had been
propping up his leadership, and it was steadily
losing ground anyway as the pain of the financial
crisis faded from memory. Vox, Spain’s insurgent
far-right party, had won just 24 seats, underper-
forming most estimates.
The economy was doing well, and Sánchez
sensed an opportunity: He’d take his chances with
another vote rather than accept the compromises
required to forge an alliance. Within days he was
telling his team they’d need to repeat the election,
according to two people familiar with the situation.
But instead of making Sánchez less beholden
to Podemos, the outcome of Spain’s Nov. 10 snapprivateaboutwhatsheviewedasa pressure
campaignledbyTrump’spersonalattorney,Rudy
Giuliani,whichendedinherousterinMay.During
theweekofNov.18, the committee will hear from
more than a half-dozen others who’ve already
appeared behind closed doors.
In all these inquiries, Schiff, a former federal
prosecutor, and his staff have an important advan-
tage over Trump’s Republican defenders on the
committee. The rules give them the first 45 min-
utes of witness questioning, according to Kurt
Bardella, a former spokesman and senior adviser
for Republicans on the House Oversight and
Government Reform Committee from 2009 to 2013,
who’s since switched parties. “For better or worse,”
Bardella says, “much like debates, these hearings
arewonorlostinthefirsthour.”�BillyHouseTHE BOTTOM LINE While House Democrats have amassed
substantial evidence of improprieties in Trump’s dealings with
Ukraine, Republicans have plenty of ways to instill doubt in voters.