Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2019-11-18)

◼ POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek November 18, 2019

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electionhasmadehimevenmoreso.Together,the

SocialistsandPodemoslost 10 seats,leavingthem

21 shortofa majority.Meanwhile,Voxmorethan

doubleditsrepresentation,winning 28 additional

seats,andtheconservativePeople’sParty,the

Socialists’traditionalopponents,pickedup22.

“Wehaveseenhowirresponsibleit wastocall

electionsbasedonthecalculusofpartyinterests,”

saysAlbertoGarzón,a Podemoslawmaker.Ignacio

Jurado,a politicalanalystwithQuantio,putsthe

situationmoresimply:“Hisbetturnedoutbadly.”

AndyettheSocialistsremain thestrongest

party.“Spaniardshaveclearlysaidtheywant

PedroSánchezandtheSocialistpartyatthehead

ofthegovernment,buthewillalsoneedthesup-

portofallforcesthatsupporttheconstitution

andwanta stablegovernment,”saidJoséManuel

Albares,hisforeignaffairsadviser,justafterthe

resultscamein.“Allofthemwillhavetounblock

thesituationtomoveforward.”Onelectionnight,

Sánchezsignaledhewasreadytoputasidehis

differenceswithPodemos.“Onewayoranother

therewillbea progressivegovernmentledbythe

Socialistparty,”hetoldsupportersinMadrid.That

night,PabloIglesias,theponytailedPodemos

leader,offeredtostarttalks,andonNov. 12 the

twosigneda coalitionagreement.Theystillneed

toattractsupportfromsmallerpartiestosolidify

a governingmajority,however.

Formostofthepost-FranciscoFrancoera,

Spainhadtheclassictwo-party systemcom-

moninWesterndemocracies.ThePeople’sParty

defendedtraditionalvalues,whiletheSocialists

pushedtheenvelopeonsocialchange.Butasa

resultofthefinancialcrisisthatravagedthecoun-

tryfrom 2008 to2013,therearenowfivemain

parties.Lastyear,Sánchezmanagedtopulloffan

unlikelyalliancethatincludedbothPodemosand

theCatalanseparatiststooustthePeople’sParty

administrationwitha no-confidence vote. Since

then, the Catalans have joined blocking majorities

against both the Left and the Right, and as recently

as September, Sánchez claimed he wouldn’t be

able to sleep at night with Podemos ministers in his

government. Of all the main party leaders, Sánchez

has the best relationship with Pablo Casado of the

People’s Party, one of his advisers says. But the

political climate is too polarized for a grand coali-

tion to have been a possibility.

In all the turmoil, the figure of Franco, who used

brutality to keep Spain intact and in line, looms

large. The Catalan separatists, who caused a cri-

sis in 2017 by declaring independence following a

successful referendum that Spain’s constitutional

court refused to recognize, see the current chaos

as fertile ground for their claims for statehood,

which had been squelched for decades under the

Franco dictatorship. Vox members, meanwhile,

wrap themselves in the Spanish flag and wax nos-

talgic for the Franco years.

For Socialists, the recent exhumation of his

remains from a mountainside mausoleum outside

Madrid is Sánchez’s signature achievement as act-

ing prime minister. “Spain arose out of forgiveness,

but it must not forget,” he said in a statement. “This

decision brings to an end a moral outrage in the

form of the glorification of the figure of a dictator

in a public space.”

To Sebastian Balfour, who teaches Spanish stud-

ies at the London School of Economics, the empty

rhetoric about Franco is pure diversion by a polit-

ical class that doesn’t know how to deal with such

issues as chronic youth unemployment and job

security. “You don’t see a lot of effort to address the

THEBOTTOMLINE A Nov. 10 snapelectionshowedthat

Spain remains divided, just as economic headwinds threaten to

destabilize the country even further.

▲ Sánchez (left) and

Iglesias sign a coalition

agreement in Madrid

on Nov. 12

real concerns that people have,” he says. “There

are a lot of new grievances, especially among the

younger generations.”

Spain’s central bank cut its annual growth fore-

cast in September to 2%, from the 2.4% it had pre-

dicted in June, with further deceleration expected

in 2020. Meanwhile, Catalonia continues to rattle

Spain’s constitutional framework. On his death-

bed, the Generalissimo wanted God to forgive his

sins and “keep the lands of Spain united.” The lat-

ter, at least, is still a work in progress. �Ben Sills,

with Charles Penty, Jeannette Neumann, Charlie

Devereux, Esteban Duarte, Thomas Gualtieri, and

Katerina Petroff

● Spain’s annual

GDP growth

3%

2

1

0

2015 2021

Bank of

Spain

forecast