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FORTUNE.COM // DECEMBER 2019
A FEW MONTHS INTO DONALD TRUMP’S term as President, Fortune senior
editor-at-large Shawn Tully asked dozens of economists, policy experts,
and business leaders to predict how the real estate titan turned TV star
might reshape the economy. The resulting prophecy was an improbable
meld of best-case and worst-case scenarios unfolding at the same time—
a bipolar split we captured in the headline of our March 2017 cover story,
“The Promise and Peril of the Trump Economy.”
The promise, in short, was that Trump would usher in dramatically
lower corporate tax rates and streamline regulation, two items long on
the CEO wish list. The peril was that he would also do the other things
he’d promised to do during the campaign. “The biggest risk is trade,”
we wrote. “Trump is advocating protectionist policies that could reverse
the decades-old march toward open borders that has enriched both the
U.S. and its partners, potentially igniting a global trade war.” So, too,
we wrote, “His harsh anti-immigration stance is another downer for
growth—with the potential to drive away or deport millions of workers
who are the bedrock of the farming and construction industries, as well
as to surrender the U.S.’s dominant position in the global talent wars.”
“Put simply,” we said, as the stock market soared during the early days
of Trump’s presidency, “America has never witnessed such a contradic-
tory mix of free-market and antigrowth policies in the White House. Or a
President who operates in such an unorthodox and unpredictable way.”
Today, nearly three years into the President’s term, we set out once
again to evaluate the Trump administration’s impact on the U.S.
economy and business landscape. What is uncanny—and unfortunate—
is how dead-on our March 2017 assessment turned out to be. As senior
editor-at-large Geoff Colvin reports in this issue (please see our story
on page 58), the promise and peril of the Trump economy are still very
much entwined. The difference today is that the factors that negatively
affect business now significantly outweigh the positive ones.
To the same extent that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, along with
strident regulatory reform, enlivened the spirits of American business
at the outset of the Trump era, the President’s never-ending, multi-front
trade war, anti-immigration zeal, relentless fight-picking, and tweet-
first, aim-later policymaking have left many in the business community
shaking their head. After a robust (and even raucous) start, GDP growth
is back to its anemic post-recession pace, corporate profits have shrunk
rather than grown, and both business investment and CEO confidence
are down. As Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a Republican economist who ran the
Congressional Budget Office
from 2003 through 2005, puts
it, “The Trump administration
lost the C-suite in 2018.”
Geoff ’s analysis is sober and
comprehensive—and, we be-
lieve, worth a read even if you’re
inclined to disagree with its
thesis from the start.
It’s also an important
background for our year-end
Investor’s Guide, which was
conceived with the idea of
helping you prosper even in a
financial environment that may
be lackluster—or frenetically
uncertain—for months to come.
What is anything but uncer-
tain, I’m happy to say, is that
Fortune writers, designers,
graphic artists, editors, and
photography curators continue
to tell business stories of pro-
found importance from around
the world. Two in this issue, in
my view, deserve special men-
tion—and a long Sunday read
by you. First is Jen Wieczner’s
profile of Goldman Sachs CEO
David Solomon (page 158),
which elegantly lifts the veil off
one of Wall Street’s most secre-
tive, celebrated, and misunder-
stood banks. The second is
“Epidemic of Fear” (page 106),
by Erika Fry—which explores
what happens when the worst
of social media and political
grandstanding collide with an
uncertain science and a public
health emergency that’s killing
thousands. Her story will—and
should—keep you up at night.
CLIFTON LEAF
Editor-in-Chief, Fortune
@CliftonLeaf
THE TRUMP
SLUMP
