Fortune - USA (2019-12)

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FORTUNE.COM // DECEMBER 2019

FACEBOOK KILLS LIBRA

When Facebook an­
nounced a global crypto­
currency called Libra
last June, the company
said it would launch in
early 2020. Now those
plans are in disarray as
partners flee and
regulators heap scorn
on the scheme. In
the new year, look for
Facebook to throw in
the towel on Libra—and
launch Leo, where Ins­
tagram users can trade
kitten photos for cash.

PROTESTERS’ NEW TOOLS

As demonstrations

around the world

grow over political and

environmental issues,

protesters increasingly

take measures to evade

the facial­recognition

technology that has

been spreading in recent

years. Some use old­

school scarves or um­

brellas, but others turn to

more innovative tools—

fashion and makeup

designed to confuse

image­ recognition

systems and masks that

make the protester look

like a different person.

PIRACY MAKES A

COMEBACK

Netflix, Disney, Apple,

Hulu, HBO, and even

CBS all have their own

streaming services. And

they each cost anywhere

from $5 to more than

$15 a month. With each

putting out “must­see”

TV, the cost along with

a requisite Internet

connection will become

too much for some cord

cutters. Expect many

more people to return

to a bad habit from the

past: piracy. 2020 will see

an uptick in “sharing” of

copyrighted TV shows as

consumers get stream­

ing subscription fatigue.

MORE HARDWARE INDIES

GE T ACQUIRED

A few weeks before

Thanksgiving, Google an­

nounced plans to gobble

up struggling hardware

maker Fitbit for $2.1 bil­

lion. That takes the

long­suffering maker

of eponymous fitness

gadgets off the market

(and at a cost more than

60% below its 2015 IPO

price). But there are

several more indie device

makers in the same boat

that Fitbit was in—and

they’re up for grabs.

Action­camera maker

GoPro and security­cam

maker Arlo Technologies

both trade 80% below

The Tech Forecast

How technology will shape everything from
civil life to politics and culture.

Fortune
Crystal Ball

their IPO prices, with the

market valuing each at

less than a single year’s

sales. Expect both to be

snapped up in 2020.

ELECTION HACKERS

GET NABBED

Unlike in 2016, America

in 2020 won’t be caught

flat­footed by hackers

and chaos agents during

the presidential election.

The threat of foreign

interference persists, of

course, and government

officials continue to warn

the public to be on the

lookout for meddle­

some disinformation

campaigns and other

attempts at subterfuge

by the likes of Moscow,

Beijing, and Tehran. But

U.S. law enforcement,

intelligence agencies,

and tech corporations

have learned from past

mistakes. States are

improving their ballot

defenses with help from

congressional funds and

Department of Home­

land Security technical

support. The FBI is ready

to name and shame bad

actors. Facebook and

Twitter periodically purge

perfidious propaganda­

bots. And U.S. Cyber

Command has already

begun testing more

active tactics—a “defend

forward” strategy—that

blunted adversaries dur­

ing last year’s midterm

elections, which mostly,

reassuringly, went off

without a hitch.

A podcasting ad squeeze It may not seem

like it, but Squarespace, Casper, and the

dozens of direct-to-consumer brands

selling everything from underwear to dog

treats don’t have unlimited ad budgets.

Expect your friend to close shop on his

Gilmore Girls podcast as the dollars dry up.

Investors agree WeWork’s IPO didn’t work.

But don’t write off the real estate tech

space altogether. Expect Amazon—which

already knows a thing or two about ac-

quiring property—to launch an AWS

for office space and take over some of

cash-strapped WeWork’s pricey leases.

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