The Economist - USA (2019-11-23)

The EconomistNovember 23rd 2019 Asia 39

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Banyan Shinzo Abe’s record roll

T

his weekShinzo Abe became the

longest-serving prime minister in

Japan’s history, with 2,886 days in office.

He pipped Taro Katsura, who served

three times in the early 20th century, a

remote age. But to win the record for the

longest uninterrupted spell in office, Mr

Abe—who had a brief time as prime

minister in 2006-7, dogged by ill health,

before returning to power in 2012—will

have to stay on until August 24th. Many

remember the man he has to beat, not

least Mr Abe: Eisaku Sato was his great-

uncle. Mr Abe is also the son of a foreign

minister and grandson of another nota-

ble post-war prime minister, Nobusuke

Kishi. In Japan, fate favours some fam-

ilies over others.

Sato’s time in office, from 1964 to 1972,

was a golden age. East-West rivalry was a

fixed, predictable thing, and Japan sat

firmly under all-paid-for American

protection. It was able to concentrate on

breakneck growth of 10% a year, driven

by exports to the West. Even the Vietnam

war was good for pacifist Japan, generat-

ing demand. Meanwhile, a dose of in-

flation kept debts under control.

When Mr Abe came to office in 2012 he

inherited a very different Japan. The

greying population was shrinking. The

stockmarket was down two-thirds from

its peak. Growth was slow and deflation

was debilitating—not least because it

constrained government revenues.

Japanese feared the world was passing

them by. Mr Abe changed the psychology.

Japan, he declared, “is back.”

The marketing was slick: “Abenom-

ics” as a programme of structural reform

never matched what it claimed on the

label. But Mr Abe had luck: an upswing in

global growth. He added gobs of deficit

spending. Monetary tinkering led to a

sharp fall in the currency, a tourist boom

and higher stockmarket. Young Japanese

out of college are now confident of a job—

one reason Japan is not fertile ground for

populism. Problems remain. Despite a

push for more female employment, wom-

en still struggle to shine, not least in Mr

Abe’s male-dominated government. Mean-

while, the state’s huge debts and welfare

payments for the old are underpinned by

an ever-smaller workforce. Yet the crisis

this may one day generate will be for a

future prime minister.

The world takes notice of Japan once

more—think, this year, of a new emperor’s

enthronement and the success of the

Rugby World Cup; next year the Tokyo

Olympic Games will make a splash. Mr

Abe, a tireless traveller, promotes open

markets even as America turns inward.

Improved relations with some other Asian

democracies, especially Australia and

India, are a hedge against a rising China

and an unpredictable America. So too is a

stronger defence posture, pushing the

bounds of Japan’s pacifist constitution.

Mr Abe, a nationalist, has never had

truck with war-guilt masochism. Like his

grandfather (whom the Americans im-

prisoned on suspicion of war crimes)

and great-uncle before him, he views

American protection as a necessary but

temporary expedient. At Kishi’s grave in

2012 Mr Abe vowed to “recover the true

independence” of Japan. Yet his dream of

excising the pacifist parts of the consti-

tution will almost certainly founder for

lack of support.

Even so, he and revisionist allies in

his Liberal Democratic Party (ldp) have

shifted Japan rightward, with some

insidious consequences. The move has

soured relations with neighbours in-

cluding China and, most damagingly,

South Korea. At home, it has undermined

press freedom and shrunk the public

space for airing contentious issues.

Older Japanese are more worried about

Mr Abe’s chest-thumping nationalism

than the young—and in 2016 he lowered

the voting age.

No opposition troubles Mr Abe, so

expect him to breeze through Sato’s

record. In theory, he must step down by

September 2021 at the latest: there are no

term limits on being prime minister, but

the ldphas a nine-year limit on its presi-

dency, which he holds. The betting has

long been that, basking in the success of

the Olympics, he will announce his

retirement as prime minister next au-

tumn. But it is far from clear who within

the ldpmight succeed him. So another

possibility emerges: that Mr Abe calls a

snap general election next year before

the start of the Olympic Games.

That would give him the mandate to

serve out his ldppresidency. Even then,

it would not take much to rewrite the

party constitution to allow him to serve

longer. And so Mr Abe’s most telling

legacy might prove to be the lack of a

successor.

Japan’s nimble prime minister is now its longest-serving

creasingly strident North Korea. South Ko-

rean officials were particularly put out

when Mark Esper, America’s defence secre-

tary, speaking during a press conference

during a visit to the Philippines, did not

rule out a drawdown of American troops if

the two sides failed to reach an agreement.

(The previous week, on the same day that

General Milley had tried to put a brave face

on things, Mr Esper had told his counter-

part in Seoul that South Korea was a rich

country which “could and should” pay

more for its defence.)

America’s demands are likely to in-

crease anti-American sentiment among or-

dinary South Koreans, the vast majority of

whom are keen on the alliance but oppose

another big increase in South Korea’s con-

tribution. There is rare unanimity among

both the progressives in government and

the conservative opposition that America

is engaged in an unacceptable shakedown

of a longstanding ally. Civic groups of va-

rious political stripes have held rallies in

recent days, some urging America to re-

main committed, others telling American

troops to “go home”.

Resolving the impasse will be hard.

With legislative elections due in April,

Moon Jae-in, South Korea’s president, will

be reluctant to make any big concessions.

For all Mr Esper’s tactlessness, a drawdown

of American troops is unlikely. But Ameri-

ca’s demanding attitude and unpredict-

ability are already pushing South Korea to

hedge its bets. Over the weekend South Ko-

rean and Chinese defence officials agreed

to co-operate more closely. This is practi-

cally meaningless, but highly symbolic. If

America continues to mistreat its allies, it

may yet push them into the arms of the

very power it needs their help to contain. 7