The EconomistNovember 23rd 2019 China 412 argued, would be able to peer into their
country and distinguish real warheads
from decoys.
At the same time, America intensified
work on long-range conventional missiles
that could hit any spot on Earth with great
accuracy within an hour. The Pentagon is
pouring billions of dollars into hypersonic
gliders that can do just this (China is build-
ing these too, but its own gliders seem to
lack the range to hit America).
China fears that such weapons might
wipe out most of its warheads and launch-
ers. Even rudimentary American missile-
defences would then be able to mop up the
“ragged retaliation” from China’s surviving
nukes. Many American strategists reckon
that this strategy—known as damage limi-
tation—is preferable to accepting mutually
assured destruction. America believes that
this possibility gives it a psychological ad-
vantage in any crisis.
In response, China seems to be coming
out of its nuclear shell. For one thing, it is
making its weapons more nimble. At a pa-
rade to mark 70 years of Communist rule
on October 1st, the star of the show was the
df-41 missile. It is thought to be China’s
first road-mobile (ie, easy to hide) and sol-
id-fuelled (ie, quick to launch) missile that
is capable of hitting any part of America.
Chinese missiles are also being stuffed
with more warheads, which makes it easier
to overwhelm and bamboozle missile de-
fences. And China is steadily working to-
wards longer-range nuclear missiles for its
submarines. That allows it to strike Ameri-
ca from the safety of its own waters.
Because new weapons require war-
heads, nuclear modernisation is also driv-
ing nuclear expansion. China’s armed
forces “doubled their nuclear arsenal in
about the last decade, and they’re on track
to double it again in the next decade”, noted
Rear Admiral Michael Brooke, director of
intelligence for America’s Strategic Com-
mand, in August. Though 600 warheads
would still be just a tenth of the American
or Russian total, it would increase pressure
on China to join arms-control talks with
those countries.
As China makes its nuclear forces more
credible—less vulnerable to pre-emption,
and more likely to get through missile de-
fences—America grows nervous, argues
Caitlin Talmadge of Georgetown Uni-
versity. If America cannot hope to destroy
most of China’s missiles, then it cannot
easily threaten China with a nuclear strike
without putting its own cities at risk.
American policymakers worry this will
embolden China and unnerve American al-
lies like Taiwan and Japan.
American leaders might then “ramp up
competition further”, suggests Ms Tal-
madge, spending yet more on missile-de-
fence and offensive weapons to restore
their advantage. That could tip China into
anotherboutofnuclearexpansion—andso
on.“NuclearcompetitionbetweentheUn-
itedStatesandChinaisalmostcertainto
intensify,”sheconcludes.
Suchcompetitionmightbeespecially
unstablebecausethetworivalshavewildly
differentviewsofnuclearstrategy,accord-
ingtoa recentpaperbyMsCunningham
andMrFravelinthejournalInternational
Security. Chinese officials are over-
confidentabouttheirabilitytopreventa
conventional war fromturning nuclear,
theyargue,whileAmericanonesareover-
confidentabouttheirsubsequentabilityto
keepa nuclearwarlimitedinscope.Mak-
ingthingsworse,thetwocountrieslacka
dedicated nuclear dialogue, largely be-
causeChinais waryof giving awaytoo
muchinformation.Fornow,China’spa-
radesaredoingthetalking. 7T
he drill-sergeantbarking orders is a
former commando who lost bits of two
fingers while deployed in South Sudan. His
100-odd young charges are dressed in cam-
ouflage uniforms and army boots. After a
bit of marching in time they are shown how
to abseil out of a besieged building.
The group under instruction are not
conscripts, however, but students hoping
to study abroad. “There is nothing very
frightening about education in the West,”
said China’s then-leader, Deng Xiaoping, tohis American guest, Henry Kissinger, in- His words signalled a dramatic open-
ing: Chinese students would at last be al-
lowed to study in countries that were ene-
mies of communism. Today hundreds of
thousands of them head abroad every year,
mostly to Western countries. Many, how-
ever, are more apprehensive than Deng
suggested they should be.
Their fear is not of ideological contami-
nation, but of the petty crime and shoot-
ings that China’s state media highlight as a
scourge of Western societies. For Wang
Xuejun, this is an opportunity. A veteran of
Chinese peacekeeping and international
relief work, he is the founder of Safety Any-
time, a company that runs security-train-
ing programmes for anxious Chinese who
are preparing to sojourn abroad. His cus-
tomers are taught how to respond to gun-
toting assailants, kidnapping attempts and
terrorist attacks, among other perils. But
the bulk of the training focuses on safety
consciousness: how to be aware of more
mundane dangers such as muggings or
pickpocketing and how to avoid or cope
with them. There are also lessons in first
aid, information security and drugs laws,
plus advice on how to handle fraud and
sexual harassment.
The clients include not just Chinese
students, more than 660,000 of whom
went abroad last year, but also workers
from the many Chinese energy, telecoms,
finance and engineering companies that
send employees abroad as part of China’s
Belt and Road Initiative. That project, a
sprawling scheme to build infrastructure
and spread influence across much of the
poor world, has put ever more Chinese into
some of the world’s riskier places.
Many of the students are heading off to
leafy college campuses in America rather
than strife-torn African countries, but they
are still extremely anxious. With relentless
regularity, they see reports of senseless and
deadly mass shootings in American cities.
Mr Wang stresses that his training is about
much more than avoiding crazed gunmen,
but that is the main draw for many of his
trainees. “I hope to go to university in
America, but we always hear so much
about gun violence there that I really have
to take it into consideration,” says 15-year-
old Cao Zhen, as his mother stands along-
side nodding in agreement.
Mr Wang, who took part in relief opera-
tions in Haiti in the aftermath of a massive
earthquake there in 2010, acknowledges
that most of his customers will never face
the dramatic situations he trains them for.
The point, he says, is to develop the pre-
paredness and presence of mind that will
serve his trainees well in any dangerous
situation, even after they get back home.
After all, he says, although China is safer
than many of the places his students ven-
ture to, anything can happen. 7
QINGDAO
Ex-commandos prepare students
heading overseas for the worstThe dangers of studying abroadThar be dragons