The EconomistNovember 23rd 2019 Middle East & Africa 452 but has lost control of the Gaza Strip to its
Islamist rival, Hamas. Following the an-
nouncement about settlements, the State
Department warned Americans of poten-
tial unrest in Jerusalem, the West Bank and
Gaza. But in the short term it is unlikely to
lead to a big surge in violence.
So it is easy to dismiss the administra-
tion’s change of policy as an empty gesture,
aimed at a domestic audience, and intend-
ed mainly to appeal to the pro-Israel evan-
gelical American voters Mr Trump will
need for re-election in 2020. But it could
have important effects in the longer term.
Mr Netanyahu has announced a num-
ber of times this year that he intends in the
near future to annex parts of the West Bank
formally. His political rival, Benny Gantz,
also welcomed Mr Pompeo’s announce-
ment, though he has presented no plans for
dealing with the settlement issue. After an
inconclusive election in September, Israel
is in political deadlock; neither leader has
been able to form a ruling coalition. But
America’s shift will probably encourage
any future Israeli government to move
ahead with annexation. 7
T
he firstpresidentofIvoryCoast,
Félix Houphouët-Boigny, liked to
build monuments to himself. After
independence he erected a new political
capital on top of his remote home village,
Yamoussoukro. No expense was spared.
He equipped the city with a Concorde
runway, West Africa’s first ice-skating
rink, the largest basilica in the world and
a grand palace, surrounded by an artifi-
cial lake filled with crocodiles.
Since the president’s death in 1993
officials have preferred to work in the
commercial capital, Abidjan, leaving the
political capital to fall into disrepair. But
potholed roads and broken streetlights
are not the only problems locals face. The
president’s pets have escaped into the
city’s waterways, and reproduced. “There
has been no policy for the crocodiles. If
yougonearthewater,theywilleatyou,”
fretsSouagaGérard,a teacher.
Thecrocodilesweregiftsfrom
MoussaTraoré,thebrutaldictatorof
next-doorMali.“Itwasa sortof‘Thisis
howI dealwithmyenemies’gesture,”
saysa Westerndiplomat.Formorethan
threedecadestheywerelookedafterbya
wirykeeper,DickoToki.Hegavethem
nameslike“Capitaine”and“Chefde
Cabinet”andkeptthemincheckwitha
bluntmachete.In2012,however,MrToki
wasallegedlydraggedoutintothelakeby
ChefdeCabinet,nevertobeseenagain.
Inthewild,crocodilescangetbywith
onlytheoccasionalmeal.Theoxenthat
thepresidencybuystofeedthemevery
monthoughttobeenoughtosatisfyeven
thehungriestofthem.Alas,irresponsi-
bletouristshavedevelopedthehabitof
payinglocalsgoodmoney(around$5achomp)toseethemgobbledownlive
chickens.Thisrichdiethasallowedthe
animalstogrowandmultiply.There
wereabout 20 originally,butnoone
knowshowmanytherearenow—orhow
manypeopletheyhavekilled.“Itispar-
ticularlydangerousintherainyseason
whentherearefloods,”saysMrGérard.
InmostcitiesinAfricahardlyanyone
wouldsheda tearattheremovalofcold-
bloodedkillers,ortheirconversioninto
stylishhandbags.ButYamoussoukro’s
crocshavea sacredaura,thankstothe
bigmantowhomtheyoncebelonged.
Somesayanyonewhodoesthemharm
willbecursed.Sowhentheycomeoutof
thewaterlookingfora snack,thepalace
guardsdonotshootthem.Instead,fire-
menarecalledtoputthemgingerlyback.Crocodilefears
Ivory CoastYAMOUSSOUKRO
A former president’s pet reptiles are terrorising the capitalManycrocs,nokeeperE
conomists havelong argued that peo-
ple should give each other money rather
than gifts, since it is hard to know what
others truly want. Though they have failed
to ruin Christmas, a study in Kenya shows
how they are changing the war on poverty
by encouraging cash handouts to the poor.
Of 142 countries in a database compiled
by the World Bank, 70% now use uncondi-
tional cash transfers as part of their welfare
programmes. About 40% have conditional
payments, in which recipients must fulfil
certain obligations, such as getting their
children vaccinated or enrolling them in
school. Brazil’s Bolsa Família, launched in
2003, is now the world’s biggest such
scheme. It helped slash the country’s ex-
treme-poverty rate from 9.7% to 4.3% in a
decade. China’s unconditional cash-trans-
fer programme, dibao, boosts the incomes
of 69m people, according to the World
Bank, though many poor households miss
out because of corruption and red tape.
Most research has found that both types
of cash transfers reduce poverty, and that
conditional ones can boost school atten-
dance and improve public health. Still,
some economists worry about unintended
consequences. Spending on one thingmeans not spending on another. Grants
targeted at some people might disadvan-
tage their business competitors. And large
handouts could cause inflation in isolated
areas where markets are thin.
A new working paper, however, allevi-
ates many of those concerns—and goes
further.* Cash grants, it seems, benefit not
just the recipients, but their neighbours,
too. Between 2014 and 2017 GiveDirectly, a
charity, handed $1,000 to more than 10,000
randomly chosen households in rural Ken-
ya. This amounted to around 75% of a typ-
ical local family’s annual expenditure. The
authors found that consumption rose by
13% for both the households that received
the grants and neighbours who received
nothing. Wages for the latter rose substan-tially, suggesting that grant recipients paid
their employees more. Meanwhile local
prices rose by less than 1%. The authors es-
timate that local gdprose by $2.60 for ev-
ery dollar granted. The comparable figure
in America has been estimated as $1.50-2.
The authors did not track a different
kind of spillover effect, however: feelings
of envy at witnessing the good fortune of
others. An earlier paper found that neigh-
bours of recipients reported significant de-
clines in life satisfaction, though their fi-
nances had not changed. 7Cash handouts benefit not just
recipients, but their neighbours tooDevelopment economicsHelicopter money
*“General equilibrium effects of cash transfers:
experimental evidence from Kenya”, by Dennis
Egger, Johannes Haushofer, Edward Miguel, Paul
Niehaus and Michael Walker. November 2019