The EconomistNovember 23rd 2019 Britain 532 the embodiment of faraway and out-of-
touch power. There is also unease about
immigration. Grimsby had almost none
until an influx of eastern Europeans after
2004 to work in the one remaining bit of
the fish industry, processing imported fish.
Locals have no time for Jeremy Corbyn,
Labour’s leader. Three complaints are loud-
est: he is not a patriot; he is more interested
in minorities than “people like us”; and he
represents the hijacking of the Labour
Party by London. Mr Mitchell expressed the
sentiments of many locals when he recent-
ly urged people not to vote for Mr Corbyn
and his “mob of cosmopolitan meritocrats
who love the [eu] more than those at the
bottom of society’s top-heavy heap”.
This has caused acute problems for
Grimsby’s Labour mp, Melanie Onn. She
has agonised over Brexit, backing Remain
and repeatedly opposing Theresa May’s
deal, before voting for Mr Johnson’s ver-
sion. She was conveniently out of town for
Mr Corbyn’s two visits to Grimsby. Christo-
pher Barker, the local Brexit Party candi-
date, says he has searched the internet for
pictures of her with her party leader, only
to come up blank.
Can the Conservatives turn all this
angst into victory? There are plenty of
straws in the wind other than our poll. The
Tories took control of the local council in
May. They have found a good candidate in
Ms Nici, who was brought up in Grimsby
and worked in local television. She puts a
positive spin on the town’s plight, admit-
ting that it is “a bit rough around the edges”
but pointing out that it has a legacy of man-
sions and parks from its glory days, and
that it is embracing new technologies. The
world’s biggest offshore wind farm, Dogger
Bank, is being constructed off the coast.
The Tories nevertheless face two hurdles.
The first is that the Brexit Party has a
clear message and a dynamic candidate. Mr
Barker is an outsider—he has a posh accent
andYorkshireroots—butheisbattle-hard-
enedfromrecentEuropeanelectionsandis
eloquent(ifwrong)inarguingthata no-
dealBrexitwouldnotonlyhonourdemoc-
racybut revivethefishingindustry.Thede-
cisionofhispartytostanddowninTory-
heldseatshasblunteditsinsurgentmes-
sage—the17%itscoresinourpollislower
thanthe25%notchedupbyitsforerunner,
theukIndependence Party,in2015. But
thereisnodoubttheConservativeswould
rathertheBrexitPartywasn’tthere.
Theirsecondhurdleisthat,afterthree-
quartersofa century,Labourhasa power-
fullocalmachine.TheToriesoperatefrom
abroom cupboard of an office, smaller
eventhantheBrexitParty’sheadquarters.
Labourcancallonthesupportoftradeun-
ionslike Unite, which has an officein
town.Itcanalsoremindvotersthatthe
partyofOldEtonianMrJohnsoniseven
moreculturallyalienthanthepartyofIs-
lingtonianMrCorbyn.
ButthesignsarethattheLabourParty
will need an extraordinarily successful
campaigntoretainthisdeepest-redofcon-
stituencies.PerhapsMsOnncoulddoas
herpredecessor,MrMitchell,oncedid,and
changehersurnametoHaddock. 7Great
Labour GrimsbyConservativeLiberalDemocrat
Green
Over65%voted
Leavein 2016
referendumTrue beleaversSources: Electoral Commission; Chris HanrettyEngland, general election results
By constituency, 2017I
n his writingson the role of the monar-
chy, Walter Bagehot, this newspaper’s
most famous editor, warned against letting
in “daylight upon magic”. The glare from an
ledsoftbox light panel certainly did Prince
Andrew no favours. Defending his associa-
tion with Jeffrey Epstein, a now-dead con-
victed paedophile, in an interview with the
bbc, and denying an accusation by one of
Epstein’s victims that he had had sex with
her when she was 17, the prince—aka the
Duke of York—looked pasty and shifty, his
answers implausible and arrogant.
He said staying with Mr Epstein was
“convenient”. No doubt it was. Mansions in
the centres of the world’s great cities usual-
ly are. But his claim that his primary pur-
pose in spending four days at Mr Epstein’s
house, during which he attended a dinner
party there, was to break off the friendship
face-to-face stretched credulity, especially
when he put it down to his “tendency to be
too honourable”.
But it was the de haut en bastone that
was most astonishing. His alibi for one
night on which he was said to have had sex
with the girl was that he had been takinghisdaughtertotheWokingbranch of Pizza
Express; he said he remembered it because
going to Pizza Express in Woking was a
“very unusual thing for me to do”. He de-
nied having hosted a party on the grounds
that it was “just a straightforward...shoot-
ing weekend”. And he failed to notice the
stream of very young women in and out of
Epstein’s houses because they were full of
staff—to whom one would, obviously, pay
no attention.
The interview has done the prince per-
manent damage. On November 20th, after
several businesses distanced themselves
from his charities, he announced that he
would be stepping back from royal duties
“for the foreseeable future”. The bigger
question is whether the monarchy has
been damaged. Andrew is said to be the
queen’s favourite, and it seems likely that
she approved the interview. Even so, sup-
port for the monarchy will probably be un-
affected. In the past quarter-century it has
moved in a narrow band, from 65% to 80%.
That may be in part because of the popular-
ity of the incumbent, whose ratings politi-
cians would kill for. According to YouGov, a
pollster, she is the most popular royal, with
72% approval, and the most admired wom-
an in the country.
The queen’s most important quality is
her ability to keep her mouth shut, a skill
which neither Andrew nor his elder broth-
er Charles has mastered. By sounding off
about a wide range of subjects about which
he has more opinions than knowledge, the
heir to the throne has annoyed many.
The queen’s willingness to keep her
counsel has allowed her to remain a sym-
bol rather than a person, and thus a focus,
as the royal website puts it, for “national
identity, unity and pride”. Prince Andrew
has certainly united the nation in the past
few days, but not in the way that his mother
would have wished. 7When he was down, he was downThe monarchyThe panned old
Duke of York
He had ten thousand excuses