The Economist - USA (2019-11-23)

76 Books & arts The EconomistNovember 23rd 2019

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lies took on their Chinese counterparts on

the quiet, preferring not to disrupt diplo-

macy. In any case, this was a slippery adver-

sary to grapple with. In “Chinese Spies:

From Chairman Mao to Xi Jinping”, Roger

Faligot, a French author, relates the verdict

of an fbispy-hunter: the trouble with the

job is that most targets don’t look or act like

spies. They are not cloak-and-dagger types

with handlers, cut-outs and dead drops;

rather, they tend to be “academics, stu-

dents, businessmen or journalists”.

Poison-tipped umbrellas are no longer

the tools of the espionage trade. Instead it

relies on employees at American or Euro-

pean technology and defence firms taking

home extra files—or photographing a com-

puter screen on their smartphone, as in a

recent case involving technology for a self-

driving car in which the fbi arrested an en-

gineer at Apple. China also acquires know-

how by funding scientists at American in-

stitutions; some set up “shadow labs” in

China that mirror their work in America.

Invoking a Chinese term, Mr Faligot de-

scribes this multipronged approach to in-

telligence collection as the “sea-lamprey

strategy”. This “slippery, greenish fish

blends with the seascape”, then latches on

to its prey, “siphoning off its blood through

its multiple orifices”, Mr Faligot writes

evocatively. Too evocatively, perhaps.

Readers of his engrossing book might be

prone to find Chinese spies everywhere,

lurking like “deep-water fish” in Chinese

communities from Vancouver to Sydney.

Under President Donald Trump, Ameri-

ca’s authorities have sometimes seemed

inclined to do just that. Given China’s stri-

dent authoritarianism, the fear is under-

standable. But the amorphous nature of the

threat demands a cool assessment. In their

book, Mr Mattis and Mr Brazil provide a

useful field guide to Chinese intelligence

services, from the distrust and purges that

weakened them under Mao to their more

professional incarnations today. They also

supply an eye-opening compendium of

confirmed cases of Chinese skulduggery.

Even so, charting the Chinese threat re-

mains a work in progress.

In many instances it is hard to discern

how much damage has really been done by

Chinese agents to other national interests,

whether in America or elsewhere. Some-

times it is not clear that a Chinese agent is

really a “spy”, as opposed to a businessman

or student caught up in machinations larg-

er than they appreciate. As the spy games

become more complex and sophisticated,

blunt crackdowns and blanket suspicions

may be as damaging to Western societies—

and the rights of innocent people—as na-

ivety is to national security. The shadowy

nature of espionage calls for democracies

to be extra-vigilant, not only about spies

but, just as important, about those respon-

sible for hunting them. 7

W

hen theauthors of thisexcellent

bookwereawardedtheNobelprize

foreconomicslastmonth,Frenchmedia

crowedthata Frenchwomanhadwonit;In-

dianmediathatanIndian-borneconomist

andhis wifehad doneso.Mostreports

eventuallymentionedthattheirnational

championwasnotthesolelaureate.Butthe

parochialismof theheadlines bears out

oneofthebook’scentralobservations.

Theworldismessierthanconventional

economicmodelsassume.Peoplerespond

notonlytomaterialincentivesbutalsoto

thepulloftribeandcustom.Theyarenot

onlyrationalbutalsoemotional,supersti-

tiousandattachedtothefamiliar.Allecon-

omistsknowthattheirmodelsoversimpli-

fy—thatiswhatmodelsarefor.Butfew

have grappled as energetically withthe

complexityofreallifeasEstherDufloand

AbhijitBanerjee,orgottheirbootsasdirty

intheprocess.

Thecouplearebestknown,alongwith

their fellow Nobel laureate Michael

Kremer,forpioneeringtheuseofrando-

mised controlled trials to answer eco-

nomicquestions.Anearlierbook,“Poor

Economics”,isfullofpowerfulexamples.

Toseewhethersmallloansimprovethe

lives of thepoor,theteampersuadeda

microlenderinHyderabadtoexpandinto

somerandomlyselecteddistrictsbutnot

others. (They found that microcredit

works, but not as well as its boosters

claim.)Inanothertrial,theyfoundthatIn-

dianteachersweremorelikelytoshowup

to workiftheyweremadetotakedate-

stampedphotosofthemselves,andtheir

paywasdockedif theymissedclasses.

“GoodEconomicsforHardTimes”is

morewide-ranging.It reviewstheevidence

forwhatworksandwhatdoesn’tintack-

lingsomeoftheworld’sbiggestproblems,

fromclimatechangetotrade.Theauthors

admitthattheirknowledgeisimperfect

and their proposals will need refining.

They don’t claim to understand what

causes rapid economic growth, for in-

stance.Theywouldfarratheryouabsorbed

their evidence-based, trial-and-error

methodthananyspecificpolicy.

Theresultisa treasuretroveofinsight.

They describe howcaste politicsfosters

corruption, how potential migrants can

overcometheirfearoftheunknown,and

how,whengovernmentposts areexces-

sivelywell-paid,astheyareinseveralpoor

countries,freshgraduatesremainjobless

foryearsratherthansettleforaprivate-

sectorposition.

Theauthorsarefascinatedbywhatmo-

tivatespeople,andhowthisvariesbysocial

context.Inanexperimentinvolvingcoin-

flippingforcashrewards,Swissbankers

aremorelikelytocheatif remindedbefore-

handthattheyarebankers,lesssoifthey

areaskedtotalkaboutwhattheydointheir

leisuretime.In“banker”mode,itseems,

peoplearemoreruthlesslyacquisitivethan

whenin“volunteerfootballcoach”mode.

Ina similarexperiment,studentsinIndia

cheated more whenremindedthatthey

hopedonedaytoworkforthegovernment;

forstudentsinDenmark,theoppositewas

true.A government’sreputationforcor-

ruptionorcleanliness“affectsthehonesty

ofthosewhowanttoworkforit”,suggest

theauthors.

Thinking about inequality, they are

scepticalaboutthefashionableideathat

richcountriesshouldoffereverycitizena

“universalbasicincome”.Therealcrisisin

suchplacesisnotmaterialdeprivationbut

that“manypeoplewhousedto thinkof

themselvesasmiddleclasshavelostthe

senseofself-worththattheyusedtoderive

fromtheirjobs.”Inpoorcountries,bycon-

Problem-solving

Boots on the ground

GoodEconomicsforHardTimes.By

AbhijitBanerjeeandEstherDuflo.

PublicAffairs; 432 pages;$30.AllenLane;£25

The pursuit of reason

The meaning of two Nobel-prizewinning economists’ work lies in their method