Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2019-11-25)

◼ POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek November 25, 2019

34

declared,inanattempttodrumupsupportfor

the312-year-oldunion.Yetmanyofhiscoreconstitu-

entscouldn’tcarelessaboutholdingontothenorth.

Ina mid-NovemberpollbySkyNews,41%ofBrexit

voterssaidleavingtheEUwouldbeworthlosing

Scotland,whileonly18%saidtheydisagreed;17%

saidthey’dbehappytoseeScotlandsecedefrom

theU.K.regardlessofthecircumstances.

Scotlandhasalreadyvotedonceonindepen-

dence.The 2014 referendumendedwith55%opt-

ingtostayintheU.K.Johnson—likehispredecessor

asheadoftheConservativeParty,TheresaMay—

hasrefusedtosanctionanotherone,andanother

Toryinsidersaidit simplywouldn’thappenwhile

thepartyrantheU.K.

Butif Brexithasshownanything,it’sthatpre-

dictionscanprovefoolish.NicolaSturgeon,the

SNP’sleader,isadamantthatScotsshouldget

anothervotenowthatthecircumstancesinthe

U.K.havechanged,demandingoneasearlyas

nextyear.Someofhermorerestlesstroopsare

suggestingScotlandpushaheadwithoutofficial

sanctionfromParliament,a moveshe’sbalked

atsofar.Sturgeoncouldyethaveherway:She’s

madeaninformalcoalitionpactwithLabour,the

U.K.’sbiggestoppositionparty.ShouldJohnson’s

Conservativesfallshortofa majorityagain,the

SNP’spriceforsupportinga newgovernmentled

byLabourleaderJeremyCorbynwouldbea fresh

voteonindependence.

Thelatestpollsshowtheoutcomeofanyrefer-

endumwouldbetooclosetocall.TheSNP,which

hasrunScotland’ssemi-autonomousadministra-

tionthepastdozenyears,is confidentit canwin

backmanyofthe 21 districtsit losttorivalparties

in2017.ScottishConservativeleaderRuthDavidson

quitafterJohnsontookthehelm,weakeningthe

partythere.

In the affluent North Sea seaside town

of Stonehaven, 15 miles south of Aberdeen,

Conservative parliamentarian Andrew Bowie is

using pictures of Sturgeon on his campaign leaf-

lets rather than Johnson as he defends his seat.

“She’s leader of the SNP, she keeps threatening to

bring more bitterness, more division to this coun-

try,” Bowie says. “I would love over anything not

to be talking about independence.”

The integrity of the U.K. is also occupying the

Democratic Unionist Party, the largest pro-British

group in Northern Ireland. (When the Catholic-

dominated republic gained independence in

1922, the mainly Protestant north remained in the

U.K.) Before Johnson came back from Brussels

with a revised Brexit deal in October, the DUP’s

10 lawmakers in London had aligned with the

Conservatives to give them a majority. But they

recoiled at Johnson’s agreement, which would

treat Northern Ireland differently from the rest of

the U.K. after Brexit, thus potentially weakening its

ties with the rest of the country. That, ultimately,

could push it toward a “border poll,” a referendum

on whether to reunite the island of Ireland.

The DUP’s biggest adversaries, the national-

ists of Sinn Fein, are campaigning with the slogan

“Time for Unity.” Sinn Fein is looking at the math

needed to unseat lawmakers opposed to a reuni-

fication vote. In fact, across the U.K., some can-

didates are stepping aside to give would-be rivals

with the same position on Brexit a better chance

of victory. In leafy and affluent south Belfast,

where the DUP is vulnerable, Sinn Fein declined

to oppose nationalist candidate Claire Hanna of

the Social Democratic and Labour Party. She’s

observed a palpable shift toward a border poll.

“There is a change. People are beginning to dis-

cuss the possibility in a way that wasn’t happening

before the Brexit referendum,” she says at a cafe.

Around the block, red-white-and-blue British flags

still fly over apartment buildings.

Although Hanna says the time isn’t right yet for

a vote on Irish reunification because of the febrile

political situation over Brexit, the coming general

election could be another catalyst for one if the

nationalists gain enough ground. Should the par-

liamentary math in Westminster eventually lead

to another independence referendum in Scotland,

then calls would grow louder for a reunification

vote in both Northern Ireland and the Republic.

Ultimately, as with Scotland, the prospect of

a border poll on Irish reunification depends on

the British government, and the criteria for when

one can be held aren’t precise. The Good Friday

Agreement states there can be a vote if the U.K.

minister in charge of Northern Ireland sees a likely

majority in favor of a united Ireland. That’s hard

to judge. “Every Northern Irish election is like a

mini-referendum on unity,” says Richard Bullick,

a former adviser to DUP leader Arlene Foster. “But

we also have to be careful about overinterpreting

the results.”

If the DUP were to lose just two lawmakers to

nationalist parties, however, that may be clear

enough. Add that to an emphatic SNP triumph in

Scotland, which the polls suggest is likely, and the

U.K.’s future would look shaky at the very least.

�Rodney Jefferson, Dara Doyle, and Alex Morales,

withKittyDonaldsonandGregRitchie

THE BOTTOM LINE Many unlikely things would have to happen to

precipitate a complete dissolution of the U.K., but the cracks that

have appeared are unlikely to be healed by an election.

2014 2019

50%

40 %

35 %

● YouGov polling on

independence from

the U.K.*

45 %

2016 Brexit

referendum

Northern Ireland

residents in favor

of Irish reunification

42%

Wales residents in favor

of Wales independence

24%

Scotland residents in

favor of independence