quick start THE BEGINNING OF THE MAGAZINE, WHERE ARTICLES ARE SMALL
E
ver since Warner Bros.’s dramatic defec-
tion to Blu-ray on the eve of this year’s
CES, it’s been widely assumed that HD DVD
is done for. As it stands, Blu-ray now has
the backing of fi ve major Hollywood stu-
dios versus HD DVD’s two: Paramount andUniversal. Those two studios have gone on
record saying that they’re sticking with HD
DVD despite Warner’s move, but that could
have more to do with contractual obligations
with Toshiba (HD DVD’s backer) than a sin-
cere belief in the format’s future.
For now, Toshiba seems determined to
make a go of it, slashing the prices of all
of its HD DVD players by 40-50 percent
in hopes of ramping up market share.
Research fi rm Gartner, however, calls this
“useless resistance.” A recent report by the
fi rm states: “Toshiba’s price-cutting may
prolong HD DVD’s life a little, but the limited
lineup of fi lm titles will infl ict fatal damage
on the format.” Gartner goes on to predict a
clear victory for Blu-ray by the end of 2008.
Say Blu-ray does triumph. Will it prompt
consumers to fi nally buy high-def disc play-
ers and movies en masse? Not according
to Apple CEO Steve Jobs, who recently
made the claim that optical discs are an
obsolete content distribution method. And
indeed, while the two optical formats have
been duking it out, the Hollywood studios
have been forging online-distribution part-
nerships. The most high-profi le of these
involves the updated Apple TV, which now
lets you stream both standard- and high-def
content that you buy or rent from iTunes
directly to your TV. A set-top box by Vudu
( http://www.vudu.com ) offers similar functionality,
as does the Xbox 360 via Microsoft’s LiveMarketplace (in fact, movie director Michael
Bay recently made waves by accusing
Microsoft of supporting HD DVD just to fuel
format confusion and drive frustrated con-
sumers to its online store).
It all sounds very juicy, but communi-
cations analyst Michael Inouye of market
research fi rm In-Stat isn’t convinced of the
online threat: “Until we get much larger
data pipes for downloading, HD will be a
pipe dream. I would imagine that quite a
few consumers will not accept video ‘hic-
cups’ should they occur as they download
the video (in cases where they stream the
content). And if the consumer wishes to
upgrade to larger data-transfer rates, it will
likely come at a price.”
In-Stat analyst Gerry Kaufhold offers up
another factor: “Cable TV operators and
the TelcoTV services provide you with your
subscription TV service and your broad-
band Internet service, so they will continue
to make sure their pay-TV services provide
the highest convenience, the best image
quality, and the most recent new titles so
that they won’t lose too much of their user
base to the Internet-delivered services.”
That should come as little consolation to
the Blu-ray camp, however.
We’ll render our own hands-on assess-
ment of the major movie streaming/down-
loading services in next month’s issue, so
stay tuned.Smooth Sailing for Blu-ray?
Even if HD DVD drops out,
the reigning high-def disc
format will have to contend
with other competitors
08 MAXIMUMPC | APR 08 | http://www.maximumpc.com
Blu-ray backers are hoping that an end to the optical format war will spark sales of high-def discs.Steve Jobs thinks the future of high-def is
direct-to-TV streaming, à la the Apple TV.