The Economist - USA (2019-11-09)

50 Britain The EconomistNovember 9th 2019

2 “get Brexit done”. Beyond that, Mr Randall’s

message to voters is limited. Crime and the

green belt are mentioned in his literature,

but these play second fiddle. “tom ran-

dall will respect gedling’s vote to

leave,” booms one leaflet.

Yet Leave voters are not in the bag for Mr

Randall yet. About half intend to vote Con-

servative, according to our poll. The bulk of

the rest go for the Brexit Party. In seats with

only a narrowish majority for Brexit, the

Conservatives will need the support of al-

most every Leave voter. In nearby Labour-

held constituencies such as Ashfield, a for-

mer mining community where 70%

backed Brexit, the Tories could afford to

lose more Leave voters to other parties. But

there are many more Gedlings than Ash-

fields. There are 46 Labour-held seats that

the Conservatives could win with a 5%

swing. Of those, 11 voted Remain. Another

21—including Gedling—had a Leave vote of

between 50% and 60%. Only 14 backed

Brexit by more than 60%.

There is a reason Mr Coaker is happy to

pose with propaganda painting him as a

fan of the eu. About 70% of those who vot-

ed Labour in 2017 backed Remain in the ref-

erendum. Labour’s strategy in Gedling, and

across the country, is to bank on Britain’s

relationship with the eu sinking to its nat-

ural place in the political debate: a second-

order issue for most voters. It believes that

more workaday issues, such as schools,

crime and hospitals, will win out. If “La-

bour Leavers” go anywhere, it will be to the

Brexit Party, argues Mr Coaker. Straight La-

bour-to-Tory switchers will be few.

If Brexit is not the main issue, other pro-

blems may hit Labour. Infighting is one. On

November 6th the party’s deputy leader,

Tom Watson, announced he was stepping

down, after years of clashing with Jeremy

Corbyn, his boss. The bigger problem is Mr

Corbyn himself, the least popular opposi-

tion leader in history. In Gedling, only four

out of ten Labour voters think he would

make the best prime minister. By contrast,

nearly all Tory voters there back Mr John-

son. A serious-looking prime minister

findshiswayontoToryleaflets,whereas

MrCorbynisnowheretobeseenonLa-

bour’s,whichfeaturelargepicturesofMr

Coaker.MrCorbyn’sratingsimproveddra-

maticallyinthe 2017 election,butthatpar-

ticularsoufflémaynotrisetwice.

Still,themessagefromtheMidlandsisa

warningtothegovernment.Anditcomes

ina weekwhentheConservatives’national

campaigngotofftoa dreadfulstart.Alun

Cairns,thesecretaryofstateforWales,re-

signedfromthecabinetfollowingclaims

thatheknewofa formeraide’sroleinthe

“sabotage”ofa rapetrial.Thepreviousday

JacobRees-Mogg,theleaderoftheHouseof

Commons,hadtoapologiseforimplying

thatthosewhodiedintheGrenfellTower

firelackedthe“commonsense”torunto

safety.The BrexitParty’s announcement

thatit willruncandidatesineveryseatwill

nothelptheConservatives.

Aboveall,itwilltakemorethanBrexit

towinseatslike Gedlingwhentheyare

splitdownthemiddleonthetopic.Until

theToriesputtogethertherestofa pro-

gramme,Labourwillbebullish.“We’real-

wayssupposedtolose,”saysMrCoakerof

hisprospects.“Butweneverdo.” 7

Seats to beat

Sources:ElectoralCommission;TheEconomist

England and Wales, seatswonby

Labour in 2017 where Conservatives

weresecond-placed

2

Ranking of Conservativetargetseats

0 20 40 60 80

Swing

required

% points

10

8

6

4

2

0

Gedling

constituency

London

Midlands

North

South

Wales

I

n northern irelandBrexit has served

mainly to harden already uncompromis-

ing attitudes. But in the election campaign

there are surprising signs that it has in-

spired a new—though probably tempo-

rary—form of pragmatism.

The most remarkable example came on

November 4th when Sinn Fein, the largest

and most hardline republican party, urged

its supporters to vote for a unionist mp. “It

sits very comfortably with me,” said Sinn

Fein’s leader, Mary Lou McDonald, as she

endorsed Lady Sylvia Hermon, the inde-

pendent mpfor North Down, whose late

husband was head of Northern Ireland’s

police. The Social Democratic and Labour

Party (sdlp), a more moderate nationalist

party, also said it would stand aside.

Their tactical support for Lady Sylvia

was due to her opposition to Brexit. Sinn

Fein and the sdlpboth backed Remain,

whereas the Democratic Unionist Party

(dup), which until recently propped up Bo-

ris Johnson’s government, supported

Leave. A vote for Lady Sylvia, Ms McDonald

declared, was the best way to keep out the

dup. Two days later Lady Sylvia, who is 64,

said she would not run, citing family rea-

sons. The dupis now expected to win the

seat. But North Down is not the only con-

stituency seeing such pacts—even if the

parties prefer not to use that word.

Sinn Fein and the sdlpare standing

down in Belfast East, to help Naomi Long of

the non-sectarian (and pro-Remain) Alli-

ance party. She hopes to unseat Gavin Rob-

inson, the low-profile dup incumbent.

Though she once held the seat and is a spir-

ited campaigner, Ms Long faces an uphill

struggle to overturn an 8,474 majority. Sinn

Fein and the sdlp’s deal ought to help her,

but not by much: in 2017 they won barely

1,000 votes between them.

Pacts could have a bigger impact in two

other seats. In Belfast South, Sinn Fein is

sitting out the race to allow the sdlp a clear

run. The local mpis the dup’s Emma Little-

Pengelly, another lacklustre presence in

Westminster. Her majority is just 1,996. The

sdlp’s candidate is Claire Hanna, a more

dynamic politician and better tvperform-

er. She also has the backing of the pro-Re-

main Greens, making her the narrow fa-

vourite to take the seat.

In the sectarian cockpit of Belfast

North, the sdlpis returning the favour,

standing aside to give Sinn Fein a better

chance of unseating the dup’s leader in

Westminster, Nigel Dodds. His majority

has been eroded to 2,081 by a growing local

Catholic population. Things looked espe-

cially dicey for the dupwhen a smaller

party, the Ulster Unionists (uup), said it

would break with tradition and contest all

seats. Seething local Protestants objected

that this would split the unionist vote, let-

ting in Sinn Fein. After receiving calls “of a

threatening nature” from loyalist paramil-

itaries, the uuphastily pulled out.

The campaign is likely to grow still

more heated. In one example, the dup

claims that a convicted Irish Republican

Army bomber, whose device killed nine

Protestants 25 years ago, has been seen can-

vassing for Sinn Fein. 7

BELFAST

Parties form unprecedented pacts in a

bid to unseat their enemies

Northern Ireland

Joining forces

IRELAND

NORTHERN

IRELAND

Belfast

North

Belfast

South

North

Down

Belfast

East

10 20 30 40 50

DUP

SinnFein

2017 generalelectionresults,

byconstituency

Majority,percentagepoints

Independent

50 km

Divided kingdom

Source: House of Commons