The EconomistNovember 30th 2019 Leaders 15
1
D
istrictelectionsinHongKongarenormallyaboutratcon-
trolandbusroutes.ThepollsonNovember24thwerea vote
onHongKong’sfutureasa liberalChineseenclave.Thequestion,
ineffect,waswhetherordinarypeoplesupportthegovernment
anditsbackersinBeijingintheirilliberalmethods.Theanswer
wasa resoundingno.Theturnout,ofover70%,washigherthan
anyrecordedinanykindofelectioninHongKonginwhichthe
publichasa say(seeChinasection).Pro-democracypoliticians
almostswepttheboard.
ForHongKong’sleadersandChina’sCommunistParty,thisis
a rebuke—compoundedthreedayslaterwhenPresidentDonald
Trumpsignedintolawa billthatsupportsHongKong’sdemocra-
cy.Irkedbymonthsofprotests,butunwillingto
usetroopstocrushthedemonstrators,theyhad
hoped ordinary Hong Kongers would turn
against the black-clad pro-democracyprotes-
ters.Theelectionresultdestroysthatdream.
The“silentmajority”turnsouttobacktheprot-
esters’cause,despitetheviolenttacticsofsome.
Ina truedemocracya voteinwhichopposi-
tioncandidatestookcontrolof 17 outof 18 coun-
cils,havingpreviouslyheldnone,wouldendpoliticalcareers.
ButCarrieLam,HongKong’shugelyunpopularchiefexecutive,
showsnoinclinationtogiveintotheprotestersbystepping
down.Thatisa pity.EventhoughMrsLam’ssuccessorwouldbe
chosenineffectbytheCommunistParty,achangeofleader
wouldallowbothsidestodrawa deepbreath.Concessionsare
easiertomakewhentheydonotinvolvea climbdownbytheper-
sonofferingthem.MrsLamhastoomuchatstake.
WhoeverleadsHongKonghastoseektheCommunistParty’s
approvalwhenmakingimportantdecisions.SoitisinBeijing
thatthenextcrucialstepsforHongKongwillbeworkedout.An
obviousonewouldbetolaunchanindependentinquiryintopo-
liceconductsincetheunrestbeganinJune.Thishaslongbeen
oneoftheprotesters’maindemands—theyallegethatthepolice
havebeenbrutal,justasthepoliceaccusetheprotestersofdan-
gerousaggression.MrsLamhasapprovedaninvestigation,but
onlybya bodythattendstosidewiththegovernment.Shewould
nothavetoshiftmuchtowina cheerfromthestreets.
Thenext,harder,stepshouldbetorestarta publicdebate
aboutpoliticalreform.Thiswassuspendedin 2015 afterpro-de-
mocracylegislatorsrejecteda party-backedproposalthatwould
haveletthechiefexecutivebechosenforthefirsttimebypopu-
larvote,butfromcandidatespickedbya committeestackedwith
theparty’ssupporters.Weretheofferrevived,thedemocrats
shouldconsideritfavourably.Suchanarrange-
ment,thoughfarfromideal,wouldencourage
chief-executivecandidatestoappealtoordin-
aryHongKongers.Sunday’selectionsshowthat
voterswouldspurna partyyes-man.
Sadly,thereisnosignthatleadersinBeijing
arecontemplatinganyconcessions.TheCom-
munistParty’smediahavedepictedthedistrict
electionsasunfair.Theysaypro-establishment
politicianswereintimidatedbythe“blackterror”unleashedby
protesterswhomofficialsaccuseofbeingtrainedandpaidforby
AmericaandBritain.Theypointtotheroughly40%ofvoters
whowentforpro-governmentcandidates,andsaythissuggests
thatmanypeoplearerepulsedbytheprotestmovement.
SomeHongKongersareindeedsickenedbytheviolenceand
fedupwiththelossofbusinessthattheprotestshavecaused.But
disasterwillfollowifthepartyconcludesthatHongKongwel-
comesitsrelentlessencroachment,orthatitshouldneverbe
trustedwithdemocracybecausevotescanproduceembarrass-
ingresults.Thevotehaltedtheunrest.China’sleadersshould
seizethemoment,notassumethatthelullwilllast. 7
A clarion call
Opposition politicians nearly swept the board in Hong Kong’s district elections. To ignore the result would be perilous
Democracy
O
ne wayof thinking about the world’s trading system is as a
sports match featuring a sprawling, brawling international
cast of players, each with their own tactics and tricks. The game
works best when there is a referee, and for nearly 25 years a group
of seven judges at the World Trade Organisation (wto) has done
the job. But on December 11th this body will cease to function, be-
cause America is blocking new appointments to it. The referee’s
departure will make cross-border commerce unrulier and, in the
long run, invite an anarchy that would make the world poorer.
The wto’s appellate body is one of those institutions that
most people have never heard of, but which will be missed when
it is gone. Set up in 1995, it hears appeals over trade disputes and
grants the right to limited retaliation where there has been
wrongdoing. Some 164 countries and territories follow its rul-
ings, and the body has prevented some of the nastiest rows from
spiralling into outright tariff wars—for example, the epic spat
between America and the European Union over subsidies for
Boeing and Airbus. Since it was created, it has been the enforcer-
of-last-resort for over 500 cases (see Finance section).
Before 1995 the system was less stable and less fair. The Gen-
eral Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the wto’s predecessor, had
rules but no judges to enforce them. Big countries had bullying
rights. The legal clarity and independence provided by the appel-
late body is one reason why trade rose from 41% of world gdpin
the year before it was created to 58% in 2017.
The immediate cause of the judges’ downfall is the Trump ad-
The umpire expires
Global commerce is about to lose its referee. Get ready for more punch-ups
The twilight of the WTO
