62Fotos: li jingwang, GlobalIP/iStock.com; privatSpotlight 14/2019 AROUND OZPETER FLYNN is a
public-relations
consultant and
social commenta-
tor who lives in
Perth, Western
Australia.his is usually the busiest time of the year for most
of my friends in the building industry, but not any
more. For the second year in a row, the construction
sector in Australia is facing an uncertain Christmas
and summer. That is particularly worrying, not just
because they are my friends, but more importantly,
because they are like the canary in the coal mine.
If they stop singing, then we should all be nervous.
When skilled workers such as carpenters, brick-
layers and electricians are struggling to get enough
work, it is a sign of deeper troubles in the economy.
The latest statistics show that the worst hit are small
businesses with fewer than five employees and a
turnover of under A$ 2 million a year. They make
up about 10 per cent of the working population and
15 per cent of all business activity.
The most obvious warning signal is the sharp fall
in building approvals — for renovations, new houses,
apartment blocks, office towers — across the coun-
try. The 15 per cent downturn in each of the past two
years is the sharpest fall in almost two decades. A few
years ago, a former state premier told me that his ba-
rometer for the health of the economy was the num-
ber of cranes he could see on the city skyline from his
office tower.
But today, the big builders are also struggling as
major projects dry up. And the domino effect is hor-
rific. Thousands of construction companies — some
quite large — have gone broke, owing millions to
small subcontractors. There is little or no protection
for the little guys when the chief contractor goes
bankrupt.
Worse still, some of the bigger businesses then
start bidding for smaller jobs — just to keep their staff
in work — pushing down prices and profit margins.
This is often the challenge facing most of my “tradie”
friends.A few years ago, Australia was building almost
240,000 new homes a year. The past two years have
seen that drop to 180,000, likely to be the new normal
for the foreseeable future. Obviously, that has a big
negative impact on the suppliers of building mate-
rials such as steel, timber and concrete, and on those
selling fittings and furniture.
The Reserve Bank of Australia continues to cut
interest rates and has eased restrictions on investor
lending that led to a housing price bubble in the big
cities of Sydney and Melbourne, but these steps seem
to be coming too late. All the leading surveys of busi-
ness and consumer confidence show a deteriorating
mood. The uncertainty of where the US- China trade
war is heading does not help either. What this means
for Australia is that the country could go into reces-
sion for the first time in 25 years — and that is a very
worrying thought for 2020.AROUND OZ
Hammers down
In Australien geht es den Leuten, die im Baugewerbe
arbeiten, wie dem Kanarienvogel im Kohlenbergwerk,
sagt unser Kolumnist. Und dieser Kanarienvogel hat
soeben aufgehört zu singen.ADVANCEDbid for sth. [(bId fO:]
, sich um etw. bewerben
bricklayer [(brIk)leIE]
, Maurer(in)
broke [brEUk] ifml.
, pleite
carpenter [(kA:pEntE]
, Zimmerer, Schreiner(in)
concrete [(kQNkri:t]
, Beton
deteriorate [di(tIEriEreIt]
, verschlechtern
downturn [(daUnt§:n]
, Geschäftsrückgang
ease [i:z]
, lockern
fitting [(fItIN]
, Armatur, Einrichtungforeseeable [fO:(si:Eb&l]
, absehbar, vorhersehbar
interest rate [(IntrEst reIt]
, Zinssatz
profit margin [(prQfIt )mA:dZIn]
, Gewinnspanne
row: in a ~ [rEU]
, in Folge
subcontractor [)sVbkEn(trÄktE]
, Subunternehmen
timber [(tImbE]
, Bauholz
tradie [(treIdi] AUS
, Handwerker
turnover [(t§:n)EUvE]
, Umsatz