The Washington Post - 02.11.2019

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 2 , 2019. THE WASHINGTON POST EZ SU A

BY SOUAD MEKHENNET AND JOBY WARRICK

When the Islamic State finally
broke its silence about the killing
of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, it did so
with a 1,200-word communique
that included Koranic verses, flor-
id tributes and one very specific
warning: Americans would pay
for the death of the terrorist
group’s leader.
“Do not get too joyful or arro-
gant,” the statement issued Thurs-
day by the Islamic State’s al-
Furqan media outlet said. Refer-
ring to the group’s newly appoint-
ed chief, it added: “Someone has
now come to make you forget the
horrors [that you already] have
seen, and the cups of bitterness
that you have tasted.”
The statement was a more for-
malized version of a threat that
has been echoed dozens of times
in the past week on social media
platforms used by Islamic State
supporters around the world.
With words, and sometimes doc-
tored images and illustrations,
the militants have vowed to exact
revenge for Baghdadi’s death on
Oct. 26 at the hands of U.S. Special
Operations forces in northwest
Syria.
While such threats are a com-
mon feature of Islamic State
propaganda, the recent state-
ments reflect what some analysts
say is an especially intense reac-
tion to how Baghdadi’s death was
presented to the world. President
Trump’s characterization of Bagh-
dadi as a “dog,” and his descrip-
tion of the terrorist’s “whimper-
ing” in his final moments have
been cited repeatedly in online
chat rooms used by the group’s
supporters.
In the days since the operation,
Pentagon leaders have said they
were unable to confirm Trump’s
depiction of Baghdadi, who deto-
nated a suicide vest after he was
discovered in a tunnel, killing
himself, several adults and at least
two children, officials say.
Although Baghdadi’s death was
a heavy blow, it also appears to
have provided the Islamic State’s
followers, at least temporarily,
with both a cause and a “rallying
cry” that has “energized the jihadi
world” after months of relative

quiet following the collapse of the group’s self-proclaimed caliphate, said Steven Stalinsky, executive director of the Middle East Media Research Institute, a Washington nonprofit organization that moni- tors social media platforms used by extremist groups. “It is prompting calls for revenge and attacks, which unfortunately will lead to at least at- tempts at attacks,” Stalinsky said. “Jihadis around the world are now galvanized, on the alert, and have something concrete to focus on.” Whether significant attacks are more likely to happen is unclear, as the terrorist group has a mixed record on carrying out its threats. In past years, the Islamic State’s warnings of pending attacks dur- ing Ramadan were followed by a campaign of bloody strikes in Middle Eastern and European cit- ies. But more recently, the group was unable to carry out a highly specific threat to disrupt last year’s World Cup games in Mos- cow. “ISIS doesn’t have any new ca- pabilities it didn’t have a week ago,” said Rita Katz, founder of the Maryland-based SITE Intelli-

gence Group, which tracks Islam- ist groups’ online activity. She said, however, that Baghdadi’s death and the naming of his suc- cessor “has certainly energized the ISIS community.” ISIS is a common acronym for the Islamic State. Even after losing its territorial holdings — the self-proclaimed caliphate that in 2015 occupied a swath of territory the size of Brit- ain — the Islamic State retains between 14,000 to 18,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria alone, according to a Pentagon report earlier this year. That doesn’t include affiliat- ed organizations scattered across a dozen countries from North Af- rica to South Asia to the Far East. “We have to, unfortunately, ex- pect that ISIS will soon try to strike back as a retaliation for the killing of Baghdadi,” said a Middle Eastern intelligence official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss counterterror- ism assessments. Of the group’s new leader — a little-known figure identified in Thursday’s communique as the “scholar” Abu Ibrahim al-Hashi- mi al-Qorashi — the official said,

“Now he will have to prove his leadership via vendetta or an at- tack that will also give him the credibility as a military leader.” One self-described member of the Islamic State, who spoke to The Washington Post over an encrypted messaging channel, spe- cifically cited Trump’s remarks about Baghdadi as having en- raged others in the group and spurred calls for revenge. While the man’s connections to the group could not be independently verified, his remarks echoed post- ings that have appeared on pro- Islamic State social media sites since last weekend. “We are following very closely what Trump said about the operation,” said the man, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the risk of reprisals by rival groups or others. “We did hear how he described the caliph as weak and crying. We are going to make sure to show one day how Americans will cry and beg for their life.” But such dire assessments were not uniform across the spectrum of Islamist groups, many of which have clashed ideologically and sometimes violently with Baghda-

di and his followers. “We have confirmation that al- Baghdadi is dead and so what?” said a self-described al-Qaeda supporter, who also spoke to The Post through an encrypted messaging service. “Do you see that the world has stopped spinning? No?” The al-Qaeda supporter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the risk of reprisals by rival groups or others, suggested that Baghdadi’s death might even lead to a detente among fractious Islamist groups, because animosities between rival organizations were often driven by dis- putes between leaders. Baghdadi famously feuded for years with al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawa- hiri, who believed that the kind of extreme violence practiced by the Islamic State was undermining the extremist cause. “There might be a chance for new doors to be opened,” the al- Qaeda supporter said. “Maybe the next person will take a different stance when it comes to coopera- tion.” [email protected] [email protected]

BY DANIELLE PAQUETTE

dakar, senegal — President Trump said he will soon ax Camer- oon from a trade program that allows African countries to sell goods to the United States on a duty-free basis, citing “persistent human rights violations” in a let- ter to Congress on Thursday. The decision comes as U.S. officials accuse the Central African nation of extrajudicial killings and unlawful detentions amid conflicts that have displaced more than a half-million people over the past two years. “Despite intensive engagement between the United States and the Government of Cameroon, Cam- eroon has failed to address concerns regarding persistent human rights violations being committed by Cameroonian security forces,” Trump said in the message. The punitive measure begins Jan. 1. Cameroonian officials did not respond to requests for comment. Allegations of human rights abuses center on the country’s Anglophone crisis, which began in 2016 with protests in English- speaking areas over the use of French in schools and courts. (About 80 percent of Cameroon speaks French.) That trouble has evolved into a full-blown conflict between armed Anglophone separatist groups and government forces. Both sides have been ac- cused of violent crimes. The Cameroonian government has jailed activists without charge and failed to punish soldiers who crack down on dissent with tor- ture and indiscriminate killing, according to a 2018 report by the U.S. State Department. A video analysis from Amnesty International last summer appeared to show Cameroonian troops executing unarmed people, including children, in the country’s north. Slashing access to the world’s biggest market is meant to send President Paul Biya “a strong dis- approving message,” said Jeffrey Smith, executive director of Van- guard Africa, an ethical-leadership nonprofit organization. Cameroon, which has a popula- tion of approximately 24 million, exported $220 million in goods to the United States last year, including mineral fuel, wood, rubber and cocoa, according to American trade data. Nearly three dozen African countries participate in the Afri- can Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a Clinton-era policy meant to boost the continent’s economic engagement with the United States. Several nations over the past decade have faced suspensions or bans, most often over human rights abuses. Trump froze Rwan- da’s trade benefits last year because the East African country refused to allow U.S. exports of used clothing. In addition to the Anglophone crisis, Cameroon also has strug- gled to ward off Boko Haram fighters on the country’s north- western border with Nigeria. Biya’s government has responded to both threats in a bru- tal manner, said Joshua Meservey, a senior policy analyst for Africa and the Middle East at the Heri- tage Foundation. Blacklisting Cameroon in the trade arena, he said, “avoids unleashing the nu- clear option of sanctions against the most senior officials of a country fighting Boko Haram.” Cameroon is losing its AGOA membership nine months after the United States announced it was yanking military aid from the country. The nation has been consid- ered an important U.S. security partner — about 300 U.S. troops were based there in February to train the Cameroonian military and assist in the fight against extremist groups. That relation- ship faltered in light of reports of security forces firing at civilians in border areas, where the military is battling English-speaking separatists fighting to create their own nation called Ambazonia. In an interview with The Wash- ington Post late last year, Col. Didier Badjeck, a spokesman for Cameroon’s Defense Ministry, called such allegations “propaganda.” Human Rights Watch said in an August report that the government has tortured detainees and held them for weeks without let- ting them contact family mem- bers or lawyers. Biya said last month that he would drop charges against more than 300 prisoners arrested dur- ing the separatist rebellion — a release Anglophone leaders cate- gorized as a publicity stunt. Peace talks have remained tense. [email protected]

ISIS statements portray intent to exact revenge for Baghdadi Cameroon’s

trade benefits

revoked over

abuse claims

BY SUSANNAH GEORGE AND SHARIF HASSAN

kabul — The U.S. special repre-
sentative for Afghanistan is in Ka-
bul discussing a possible prisoner
exchange to free two Western hos-
tages held by the Taliban since
2016, according to two Afghan
officials. The move follows U.S.
envoy Zalmay Khalilzad’s visit
earlier this week to Pakistan,
where he was seeking ways to
revive peace talks with the Taliban
nearly two months after they were
upended by President Trump.
Khalilzad is attempting to se-
cure the release of American Kev-
in King and Australian Timothy
Weeks, according to the two Af-
ghan officials, who spoke on the
condition of anonymity because
they were not authorized to speak
to the media. The Australian and
American men were professors at
the American University of Af-
ghanistan before they were seized
at gunpoint in Kabul in August

The officials said the two
professors could be freed in ex-
change for several Taliban com-
manders, including Anas
Haqqani, a son of the founder of
the Haqqani network, an insur-
gent group closely allied with the
Taliban.
The Afghan government did
not respond to requests for com-
ment. Taliban officials have de-
clined to comment publicly on the
possible prisoner exchange. When
asked about the possibility earlier
this week, Zabiullah Mujahid, a
Taliban spokesman, told The
Washington Post, “It is not clear
yet.”
Also unclear is whether Trump
supports the resumption of talks
with the Taliban. Trump has re-
peatedly pledged to bring Ameri-
can troops home from “endless
wars” abroad. In October, he au-
thorized a hurried drawdown of
U.S. forces from Syria.
Although Trump declared
peace talks with the Taliban
“dead” in early September, infor-
mal “discussions” focused on
identifying confidence-building
measures have continued behind
the scenes, according to a senior
Taliban official. The Taliban offi-
cial spoke by phone from an un-
disclosed location on the condi-
tion of anonymity because he was
not authorized to provide infor-
mation to the media. In early Oc-
tober, Khalilzad met with Taliban
leaders.
Other Afghan officials have
suggested a reduction in violence

is necessary before peace talks can continue. The conflict in Afghani- stan has escalated in recent months, and civilian casualties have reached record levels. So far this year, more than 8,000 civilians have been killed or injured, according to the United Nations. Hamdullah Mohib, the Afghan president’s national security ad- viser, said in a news conference Monday that the Afghan government is demanding a cease-fire before any peace talks with the Taliban. The announcement marks a sharp departure from the government’s previous position of openness to direct talks without preconditions. Mohib said a cease-fire would be a test of the Taliban’s ability to control its fighters. Suhail Shaheen, the spokesman for the Taliban’s political office in Doha, Qatar, responded, “The ac- cusation of disparity and division among our rank and file is an empty claim made by the spoilers of the current peace process.” The Taliban has long refused to meet directly with the Afghan government, even without preconditions, as the insurgents view Af- ghan President Ashraf Ghani’s government as a puppet of the United States. In Pakistan, Khalilzad met with Prime Minister Imran Khan and held talks with the country’s pow- erful military chief earlier this week. Khalilzad’s Kabul visit comes amid continuing political uncer- tainty in Afghanistan, where the results from the country’s recent presidential election remain in limbo. Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission has delayed the announcement of the results until mid-November. Khalilzad and Taliban negotiators appeared to be days away from announcing a peace deal in September before the effort was halted by a tweet from Trump. The deal included an agreement on the withdrawal of most American troops from Afghanistan in exchange for a pledge from the Tali- ban that it would not harbor terrorist groups. It is not clear whether any further talks moving for- ward would pick up where the negotiators left off or begin the process from scratch. [email protected] [email protected]

Sayed Salahuddin in Kabul and Haq Nawaz Khan in Peshawar, Pakistan, contributed to this report.

BY ANNA FIFIELD

beijing — China’s ruling Com- munist Party signaled it is prepar- ing to take a tougher approach toward pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, declaring Friday that it would strengthen ways to “safeguard national security” and step up efforts to make Hong Kongers more patriotic toward the mainland. The warnings, coming at the end of a four-day party meeting in which the apparatchiks reiterat- ed their loyalty to Chairman Xi Jinping and hailed his iron-fisted leadership, mark an escalation in Beijing’s language about the protests. “The [party’s] Central Commit- tee seems to have reached the conclusion that they need to do more about Hong Kong and in a much more active manner,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a professor of political science at Hong Kong Baptist University. “China wants to exert much more control over Hong Kong and manage the situa- tion with a firmer grip.” The Communist Party organs that control China conduct their business behind closed doors, providing few details about the sausage-making process of Chi- nese politics. This week’s meeting, officially called the Fourth Plenum of the 19th Party Con- gress, was no exception. A communique released Thursday contained predictable statements about the party’s wise leadership, with Xi at its core, and the virtues of China’s socialist system. But in a news conference Friday, officials took a noticeably harder line when asked about the protests in Hong Kong, which began in June. Beijing will act to “firmly safeguard national sovereignty and security,” said Shen Chunyao, director of the Hong Kong, Macao and Basic Law Commission. “We will absolutely not tolerate any behavior that challenges the bottom line of ‘one country, two systems,’ ” he told reporters, referring to the arrangement under which Hong Kong has enjoyed certain rights not available on the mainland. When Britain returned Hong Kong to China in 1997, Beijing agreed that the territory would enjoy a high level of autonomy for 50 years. But under Xi, that autonomy, including freedom of speech and a distinct legal system have been steadily eroded.

Unlike mainland China, Hong Kong has multiple political par- ties and a vibrant civil society. But its leader, or chief executive, must be chosen from candidates ap- proved by Beijing and must ad- here to the “one country, two systems” structure. Residents of the Asian financial hub have been demonstrating against the party’s increasing en- croachment into their system and are calling for the right to elect their leader without restrictions. Hong Kong’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, is widely seen as a puppet of Beijing, while its au- thorities this week acted to bar democracy activist Joshua Wong, who is reviled by Beijing, from running in local elections. In the only nod to the protesters’ concerns, Shen said that Bei- jing would try to “improve” the process through which Hong Kong’s chief executive was select- ed. However, the statement was vague and gave no details. At Friday’s briefing, Shen also said that Beijing would not per- mit “any behavior encouraging separatism or endangering national security” and would keep a close watch for foreign actors “carrying out acts of separatism, subversion, infiltration and sabo- tage.” But that would further inflame tensions, said Suzanne Pepper, an American political analyst in Hong Kong. “There isn’t a whole lot that Beijing can do in that respect except issue more decisions on the Basic Law, but that will only send more people onto the streets, more violence, and harsh- er police measures,” she said. Still, she added, Beijing does not seem

inclined to send the People’s Lib- eration Army onto the streets of Hong Kong. Despite sending unsubtle mes- sages to Hong Kong by deploying troops to its border with the mainland, analysts say, China cannot risk heavy-handed military action — like that which brought an end to pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989 — in a global financial capi- tal that helps China do business with the wider world. Instead, Beijing appears to want to expand its propaganda efforts, ubiquitous on the mainland, into Hong Kong. Shen said the party would “strengthen the patriotic education of our Hong Kong and Macao compatriots, especially among civil servants and young people, teaching them about the [Chinese] constitution Chinese history and culture, in order to boost their national con- sciousness and patriotic spirit,” he said. Macao is a former Portuguese colony that was handed back to China in 1999, and it operates under the same “one country, two systems” formula. Beijing has held up Macao, a gambling hub that has not been riven by protests, as an exemplary region. Experts scoffed at the idea that young people in cosmopolitan Hong Kong would fall for such ploys. “Unless they put people in con- centration camps like in Xinjiang, it’s not going to work,” Cabestan said, referring to reeducation camps in western China where more than 1 million Muslims have been detained. “Even if they put people in camps, it won’t work.” [email protected]

JOSE ROMERO/U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES An image from a video released by the U.S. Defense Department shows smoke rising from the compound of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Syria after it was destroyed in the U.S. raid on Oct. 26. The militants have threatened to retaliate since his death.

U.S. envoy seeks prisoner

exchange with Taliban

China’s warning to Hong Kong:

Less tolerance, more patriotism

KYLE LAM/BLOOMBERG NEWS Riot police, seen on Thursday, have been unable to quell the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, which started in June.

The Washington Post - 02.11.2019

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