The Washington Post - 02.11.2019

A4 EZ RE THE WASHINGTON POST.SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 2 , 2019

BY DAN BALZ AND EMILY GUSKIN

As the House moves to a new,
more public phase of its impeach-
ment inquiry, the country is
sharply divided along partisan
lines over whether President
Trump should be impeached and
removed from office, according to
a Washington Post-ABC News
poll.
The poll finds that 49 percent
of Americans say the president
should be impeached and re-
moved from office, while 47 per-
cent say he should not. That find-
ing is almost identical to support
for impeachment in a poll by The
Post and the Schar School taken
earlier in October.
Among Democrats, support for
removing the president from of-
fice is overwhelming, with
82 percent in favor and 13 percent
opposed. Among Republicans, it
is almost the reverse, with 82 per-
cent opposed and 18 percent in
favor, even as the president’s ap-
proval rating reached a new low
among members of his party. In-
dependents are closely divided,
with 47 percent favoring removal
and 49 percent opposed.
On Thursday, the House ap-
proved a resolution setting out
the terms for the next phase of the
inquiry, which to this point has
included weeks of closed-door
testimony. The resolution laid out
plans for televised hearings with
witnesses and rules and pro-
cedures for the examination of
those witnesses.
The vote on that measure split
along partisan lines in a House
that is bitterly divided. All Repub-
licans and two Democrats op-
posed the measure, with all other
Democrats supporting it. Those
divisions reflected the broader
public sentiment highlighted in
the Post-ABC poll and under-
scored the partisan warfare that
will surround the inquiry as it
moves forward.
Although the public is sharply
divided on the ultimate question
of Trump’s fate in the impeach-
ment process, support for the pro-
ceedings has risen over the past
few months. In a July Post-ABC
survey, 37 percent of Americans
said Congress should open an
impeachment inquiry that could
lead to Trump’s removal, with
59 percent opposed.
The current level of support for
impeachment, though revealing
the sharp divisions within the
country, contrasts notably with
attitudes during the process that
led to the impeachment, but not

removal from office, of former president Bill Clinton. Through- out the fall of 1998, support for impeachment never rose above 41 percent in Post-ABC surveys and stood at 33 percent in Decem- ber that year, shortly before the House voted to impeach Clinton. The July poll was taken after the release of the report by former special counsel Robert S. Mueller III into Russian interference in the 2016 election and whether the president sought to obstruct the Mueller investigation. That probe found multiple contacts between Trump campaign associates and Russians but no criminal con- spiracy. The July survey, however, came before recent revelations about the president’s alleged efforts to press Ukrainian President Volod- ymyr Zelensky to open investiga- tions into the 2016 election and into former vice president Joe Biden and his son Hunter. Biden’s son served as a paid adviser on the board of a Ukrainian energy company while his father was in office. Several witnesses who have testified before the House Intelli- gence Committee have described a quid pro quo requested by Trump, with military aid to Ukraine and a White House visit by the newly elected Zelensky withheld over the summer as the president pressed Ukrainian leaders for an affirmative state- ment about the opening of inves- tigations into his potential rival. Most Americans judge what Trump did in that case as out of line. The latest survey finds 55 percent of Americans conclud- ing that, regardless of their views on impeachment, Trump did something wrong in his dealings with Ukraine, including 47 percent saying that what he did was seriously wrong. Fewer, 35 percent, say he did nothing wrong, with the remaining 10 percent offering no opinion. Overall, about 1 in 10 say he did something wrong but oppose impeachment. There are even stronger objections to the role played by Ru- dolph W. Giuliani, the president’s personal lawyer and former may- or of New York. Witnesses have characterized Giuliani as running a shadow foreign policy with re- gard to Ukraine that operated outside the bounds of the administration’s regular chain of com- mand. Asked whether that was appropriate or not, 60 percent of Ameri- cans say it was not, with 31 per-

cent saying it was. On that question, nearly a third of Republicans (32 percent) say Trump involving Giuliani in Ukraine policy was not appropriate, to go along with 83 percent of Democrats and 61 percent of independents. The president enters the next phase of the impeachment process with approval ratings that are low but unchanged overall. Less than 4 in 10, or 38 percent, of Americans say they approve of the way he is handling his job, the same level as a survey in Septem- ber. The numbers are almost identical among registered vot- ers. Meanwhile, 58 percent disapprove of Trump’s job performance and 48 percent strongly disapprove. Trump’s disapproval among independents stands at 57 percent and rises to 91 percent among

self-identified Democrats. Trump’s base of Republicans is less united in support, however, with 74 percent approving of his job performance, a record low in Post-ABC polls. That is not far from his previous low of 78 percent, most recently reached in April, and eight points lower than September’s figure among Re- publicans. Still, a 64 percent majority of Republicans “strongly approve” of the president, which is similar to 66 percent who said the same in September and higher than at some points in 2017. The stability of Trump’s overall job approval rating suggests that although Americans may have be- come more supportive of impeachment, the intensifying House investigation and revelations about his actions involving

Ukraine have led few Americans to change their opinions about his presidential performance. Trump continues to be rewarded with particularly strong support among those who have most em- phatically supported him throughout his political career, including white men without college education and white evangel- ical Christians. About two-thirds of Americans say Trump has acted in a way that is “unpresidential,” including 58 percent who say this is “damag- ing to the presidency overall.” Yet both figures are little different than during his first year in office, an indication that widespread frustrations have not worsened. Overall, 9 percent of Americans both disapprove of Trump and oppose impeachment and removing him from office. A smaller 2 percent approve of Trump and say he should be impeached and removed from office. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who has led House Democrats to this point in the impeachment process, has an identical approval rating as Trump, at 38 percent positive. Her disapproval rating is 48 percent, 10 percentage points lower than Trump’s, and a sizable 14 percent offer no opinion. Republicans have expressed strong objections to the decision by House Democrats to hold closed hearings during the initial phase of the impeachment inquiry and for weeks have demanded public hearings. But they voted against the measure Thursday, arguing that the rules proposed by Democrats do not give the president or Republicans ad- equate powers or protections in how the testimony will be con- ducted. Democrats have said those hearings amount to the equiva- lent to grand jury proceedings, which are always behind closed doors. Asked about those initial hearings, 65 percent of Ameri- cans say the initial hearings should be held in public, with 33 percent saying closed-door testimony is acceptable. Neither the president nor House Democrats draw majority support for the way they have handled things so far, although Democrats fare slightly better. Just over 4 in 10, or 43 percent, approve of the way House Demo- crats have proceeded to date, with 50 percent disapproving. An even smaller percentage (34 percent) say they approve of how the president has responded to the im-

peachment inquiry, with 58 percent disapproving. Pelosi had long said that, to be successful, impeachment should be a bipartisan effort, but partisan perceptions have shaped all aspects of the proceedings so far and are likely to for the foresee- able future, as the poll indicates. Americans see both sides as more motivated by political consider- ations than by constitutional pre- rogatives. Currently, 51 percent of Ameri- cans say the Democrats are inves- tigating Trump because they are mainly interested in hurting him politically, while 43 percent say they are mainly interested in up- holding the Constitution. Slightly more Americans (55 percent) say Republicans are more motivated by their desire to help Trump politically, while 36 percent said GOP lawmakers are mainly interested in uphold- ing the Constitution. Support for impeachment splits along gender as well as partisan lines, with a 14-point gap between men and women. Among women, 56 percent support impeachment and removal of the president. Among men, support for that stands at 42 percent. Among age groups, the lowest level of support (at 37 percent) is among those ages 40 to 49. Young- er adults are most favorable toward impeachment and removal, with 58 percent of 18- to 29- year-olds saying they support that course. The poll also highlights different attitudes based on race and education. A smaller 39 percent of whites support impeachment and removal, compared with 66 percent of nonwhites, including 76 percent of African Americans. Among white college gradu- ates, 39 percent of men support impeachment, while 59 percent of women favor it. Among whites without college degrees, less than a quarter, or 24 percent of men and 41 percent of women, say they support impeachment. The Post-ABC poll was con- ducted by telephone from Oct. 27- 30 among a random national sample of 1,003 adults, 65 percent of whom were reached on cell- phones and 35 percent on land- lines. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. [email protected] [email protected]

Scott Clement contributed to this report.

Poll: Americans sharply divided over whether to impeach, remove Trump

SHELLY TAN/THE WASHINGTON POST

Note: “No opinion” not shown.

Americans and independents roughly split on impeaching and removing Trump Q: Based on what you know, do you think Congress should or should not impeach Trump and remove him from office?

IMPEACH AND REMOVE DO NOT IMPEACH AND REMOVE U.S. overall 47%

13%

82%

49%

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

49%

82%

18%

47%

POLL Washington Post-ABC News Poll

Source: Oct. 27-30, 2019, Washington Post-ABC News poll of 1,003 adults with an error margin of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Most say Trump did something wrong in his dealings with Ukraine, but less than half say it was ‘seriously wrong’ Q: Regardless of your views on impeachment, do you think Trump did something wrong in his dealings with Ukraine, or do you think he did nothing wrong? IF SOMETHING WRONG: Was this seriously wrong or wrong but not seriously?

55%

35%

10%

Trump did something wrong

Seriously wrong 47%

Not seriously wrong 8%

Trump did nothing wrong

No opinion

BY RACHAEL BADE AND SEUNG MIN KIM

A growing number of Senate
Republicans are ready to ac-
knowledge that President Trump
used U.S. military aid as leverage
to force Ukraine to investi-
gate former vice president Joe
Biden and his family as the presi-
dent repeatedly denies a quid pro
quo.
In this shift in strategy to de-
fend Trump, these Republicans
are insisting that the president’s
action was not illegal and does
not rise to the level of an im-
peachable offense as the Demo-
cratic-led House moves forward
with the open phase of its probe.
But the shift among Senate
Republicans could complicate
the message coming from Trump
as he furiously fights the claim
that he had withheld U.S. aid
from Ukraine to pressure it to dig
up dirt on a political rival, even as
an increasing number of Republi-
cans wonder how long they can
continue to argue that no quid
pro quo was at play in the matter.
The pivot was the main topic
during a private Senate GOP
lunch on Wednesday, according
to multiple people familiar with
the session who spoke on the
condition of anonymity to de-
scribe the meeting. Sen. John
Neely Kennedy (R-La.) argued
that there may have been a quid
pro quo but said that the U.S.
government often attaches condi-
tions to foreign aid and that
nothing was amiss in Trump’s
doing so in the case of aid to
Ukraine, these individuals said.
Inside the lunch, Sen. Ted Cruz
(R-Tex.), who ran against Trump
in 2016, said a quid pro quo is not
illegal unless there is “corrupt
intent” and echoed Kennedy’s ar-
gument that such conditions are
a tool of foreign policy.
“To me, this entire issue is
going to come down to, why did
the president ask for an investiga-

tion,” Kennedy, who worked as a lawyer, said in an interview. “To me, it all turns on intent, motive.

... Did the president have a cul-
pable state of mind?... Based on
the evidence that I see, that I’ve
been allowed to see, the president
does not have a culpable state of
mind.”
The discussion underscores
the dilemma for congressional
Republicans as a cadre of current
and former Trump administra-
tion officials paint a consistent
picture of a president wiling to
use foreign policy to undercut a
potential domestic political ad-
versary. On Thursday, Trump ap-
pointee and longtime Republican
aide-turned-National Security
Council adviser Tim Morrison be-
came the latest official to testify
that nearly $400 million of con-
gressionally appropriated mili-
tary aid for Ukraine was frozen to
increase pressure on President
Volodymyr Zelensky to investi-
gate Biden, a 2020 presidential
contender.
And with the House Democrats
voting Thursday to open the
closed-door impeachment inves-
tigation, undermining the GOP’s
complaints about a secretive
process, Republicans are franti-
cally seeking a new strategy and
talking points to defend the presi-
dent.
Meanwhile, the president has
frustrated Senate Republicans by
seeming to change his messaging
strategy every day rather than
present a coherent defense of his
actions, said multiple Senate GOP
officials who spoke on the condi-
tion of anonymity to comment
frankly.
On Thursday, Trump told the
Washington Examiner that he
wanted to do a series of “fireside
chats” — as President Franklin
Delano Roosevelt famously did
during the Great Depression and
the early part of World War II — to
defend himself. He said he per-
haps would read aloud the tran-
script of the July 25 telephone call
in which he asked Zelensky to do
him a “favor.”
The willingness of some Senate
Republicans to acknowledge a
quid pro quo while dismissing the
offense comes just two weeks
after acting White House chief of

staff Mick Mulvaney had to walk back a similar assertion. Mulva- ney argued in a long-winded news conference on Oct. 17 that quid pro quos are a common feature of foreign policy and that the media should “get over it.” Congressional Republicans balked, forcing Mulvaney to re- treat. Indeed, a strategy that includes acknowledging a particular kind of reciprocity with a foreign government would almost certainly unnerve moderate Republicans such as Sen. Susan Collins (Maine), who faces reelection next year in a Democratic-leaning state and has said it was “com- pletely inappropriate” for Trump to invite China to investigate Joe Biden, which the president did after the Ukraine controversy be- gan. Collins has repeatedly de- clined to comment on Ukraine, arguing that she probably would be a juror in a Senate trial of the president. One senior Republican aide cautioned that acknowledging a quid pro quo is unlikely as a

strategy for the Senate GOP, even if some conservatives like the idea. Such a step would also undercut Trump’s central talking point on impeachment — and would clash with House Republicans’ strategy. Trump’s Capitol Hill al- lies and Republican leaders, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) and House Minority Whip Steve Sca- lise (La.), are sticking with Trump’s line that there was no proposed trade-off with Ukraine. “You can’t have been in [the impeachment depositions] with 10 different witnesses and come out with any credible belief that there was a quid pro quo for aid.

... It’s just not accurate,” said top
Trump ally Rep. Mark Meadows
(R-N.C.) “I’ve heard people say,
‘Well even if he did it, it’s fine.’ The
problem with that is: I know that
he didn’t do it.”
In the Senate, however, some
Republicans aren’t as confident
and have expressed concerns
about the endless drip of embar-
rassing headlines from daily wit-

ness testimony that the U.S. aid and a White House visit for Zel- ensky hinged on the Biden probe. The Senate lunch, according to those in attendance, also focused on how best to rally to Trump’s defense if he is impeached. Under the constitutional process, the Senate would hold a trial, with conviction requiring the votes of two-thirds of the senators present. While some Senate Republi- cans have argued for a quick trial, most other senators believe that moving quickly could backfire. Senate Republicans, especially those up for reelection next year in Democratic-leaning or swing states, could face criticism that they did not take the charges seriously. During last year’s contentious battle to confirm now-Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Ka- vanaugh, Republicans thought that the more thorough process, including a new FBI investigation in the final days of the confirma- tion fight, arguably helped to win more support, including that of

Collins and then-Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.). Some Republicans suggested a longer trial could help the president by giving the GOP the oppor- tunity to try to poke holes in the Democrats’ case. Among those who made a case for thorough proceedings was Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who responded to a remark from Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) that while, in theory, White House attorneys could move every day to try to dismiss the case, the administration would be advised not to do that. Cramer appeared to agree with that argument. “This may be his only opportu- nity to change what the public sees and hears if they’re going to continue with their very one- sided process over in the House,” Cramer said, later adding: “In my view, [it is] in the president’s best interest to have the whole thing played out. I don’t mean five weeks, but at least the case so at least the public gets to hear his case.” Cramer also subscribed to the idea that “there’s lots of quid pro quos” in U.S. foreign policy, point- ing to stipulations on assistance for Venezuela and other nations. “We’ve done quid pro quos a lot of times,” he said. “The question isn’t whether it was quid pro quo; the question is: Was it corruption?” Kennedy argued that there are two views on Trump’s actions: that he pushed for an investigation of a political rival; or that he pushed for an investigation of corruption in a country that has a history of missteps — and the request just happened to include the Bidens. Kennedy, an ally of Trump’s, said he expects the president’s lawyers to argue the latter during a Senate trial. Trump asked Zelensky in the call to look into the Bidens, refer- ring to allegations that Joe Biden pressured Ukrainian officials to fire a prosecutor who was prob- ing the company where Hunter Biden served as a director. For- mer Ukrainian and U.S. officials say the prosecutor’s investigation into the company was dormant. [email protected] [email protected]

GOP senators may accept there was Ukraine quid pro quo

MELINA MARA/THE WASHINGTON POST Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), right, appears with his leadership team on Capitol Hill on Tuesday to address journalists on Senate Republicans’ response to the impeachment probe.

Would say practice is legal, but shift could hurt Trump’s blanket denials

The Washington Post - 02.11.2019

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