Behind the HeadlinesThe Report
THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTER 14 NOVEMBER 13, 2019
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ESformulas is difficult without rat-
ings transparency, yet streamers
withhold most data, and Nielsen
and Comscore analytics are not
broadly accepted. Sources close
to the matter, who spoke on
condition of anonymity, seem
split: “Subs are irrelevant!” one
tells THR, arguing that formulas
should be based only on viewer-
ship or minutes watched, which
would require the streamers
to reveal this data. But another
well-positioned source cautions
against ignoring subscrib-
ers, noting that many shows
don’t overperform.
And the guilds aren’t the only
talent advocates with concerns:
Credible viewership data would
seem useful to agents and
attorneys too, helping them
make the case for more lucrative
compensation. But surprisingly,
reps are divided. On the one
hand: “Agents want to know what
their client’s work is generating
for the companies that they are
partnered with,” says one senior
agency source. “That means
sharing and revealing data that
proves engagement with plat-
forms because of the shows,
stars and events that are made
available there.”
But another senior agency
source has a contrary view: While
linear television “was a met-
rics business,” the source says,
“I don’t think we want to know
[SVOD] viewership. Audiences are
smaller, and not a lot of people
are finishing these shows. I don’t
believe lack of data has affected
our dealmaking.” Echoing that
view, “I don’t care how well [my
client’s show] did,” says a veteran
entertainment lawyer, speaking
of a highly touted series. “I know
it was a breakout hit for them. I
was almost happier not knowing
[viewership because] it allows us
to give more weight to Emmy and
Globe nominations and awards”
— factors the attorney says once
were deemed less relevant by
studios. And besides, the attorney
adds, even in the ratings-rich
world of linear television, “we
never had perfect information.”
But viewership metrics don’t
always tell the whole story — or
even the right one. While the
relevance is obvious for AVOD
services, SVOD services rely on
subscriber dollars, not viewer-
dependent ad buys. That means
the value of a series to a subscrip-
tion platform might be better
measured by how much the show
contributed to subscriber acqui-
sition or retention (think HBO
and Game of Thrones). And even
sub fees aren’t always the goal:
Amazon chief Jeff Bezos wrote in
2018 that “Prime Video continues
to drive Prime member adoption
and retention,” and that in turn
drives purchasing behavior: “It’s
how our whole model works,” he
told THR in 2015. “When people
join Prime, they buy more of
everything we sell.” Similarly, one
senior agency source speculatesEU and North America. Once we
understand what information is
most useful, we’ll look at sharing it
in more countries.”
For their part, it seems likely
the guilds will try to obtain some
kind of success data and monetize
it as residuals in a complicated
game of 3D chess, which in one
scenario could even see the DGA
cut off talks and challenge the
AMPTP to first make a deal with
the more contentious Writers
Guild. (The scribes’ May 1 con-
tract expiration precedes the
DGA’s and SAG-AFTRA’s expi-
ration by almost two months.)
That could lead to a strike by the
WGA — already locked in battle
with the major agencies — and
then an actors’ walkout while the
strike-averse directors wait in the
wings, idled even if not actually
on strike. Adding a dimension:
SAG-AFTRA cut a separate three-
year deal with Netflix on July 20,
meaning that a performers’ strike
would halt new production for the
likes of Disney+ but not Netflix,
an outcome that Disney chief Iger
will surely want to avoid.
Yet unlike in yesteryear, when
the major studios had parallel
business models and Universal
mogul Lew Wasserman could
speak for a unified management
bloc, no one today seems likely
to fill those shoes, not even Iger,
whose own corporate interests
are so divergent from those of
Netflix (now a direct competitor),
Amazon (with its different busi-
ness model), Sony Pictures (an
agnostic supplier to all) and many
of the other major studios and
networks (each a walled garden
and many under new manage-
ment or ownership). A fractured
AMPTP increases union leverage
but also ups the likelihood of a
strike by making communication
and coordination more difficult.
As companies place multi-
billion-dollar bets, Hollywood
union members are angry, says
a source close to labor — also a
reflection of the national politi-
cal climate and a winner-take-all
economy. And as the streaming
— and guild — wars intensify,
says one senior agency source,
“The subject of success metrics
is the only thing we are all going
to be talking about in the com-
ing years.”Conversely, argues former
Metropolitan Talent Agency head
Christopher Barrett, “any addi-
tional information you can have
is useful to understand the value
to the buyer.” But he adds that
“the metrics need to be redefined”
— and that’s hard when there’s
no consensus on what and how
to measure. Start with subscrib-
ers. Is it misplaced to focus on
domestic, as opposed to world-
wide, sub counts? And just what
is a subscriber, in a market where
some services are provided as free
add-ons? That’s a question that
affects not just Amazon’s service
(should every Prime member
count, even those who watch the
video content seldom or not at
all?), but also Disney+, Apple TV+
and Peacock, which are pitched
as free for extended periods or
indefinitely to Verizon, AppleSource: Netflix, Nielsen SVOD Content RatingsTale of Two Metrics
Netflix describes a ‘view’ as a member account that has watched
70 percent of a movie or single TV episode. Meanwhile, Nielsen’s ‘reach’
figure measures those who watched at least six minutes of
the programming. Netflix figures are global; Nielsen’s are U.S.-only5M 10M 15M 20M 25M 30M 35M 40M 45MEl Camino
Oct. 11-
Oct. 11-July 4-
July 4-
Bird Box
Dec. 21-
Dec. 21-Netflix Nielsen25.7M40.7M45M8.2M26.2M25.9Mdevice or Comcast customers.
And if counting subs is hard,
viewership metrics are even more
elusive. “The criteria for what is
a view are all over the place,” says
another entertainment attorney.
Netflix says it counts any ses-
sion where the user
watches 70 percent
of a movie or of one
episode of a show,
while other services
may have their own
definitions. And rather than an
all-or-nothing approach, some
platforms may pay more attention
to minutes watched per month,
the attorney adds. Indeed, Netflix
CEO Reed Hastings said Nov. 6
that “the real measurement
will be time.”that Apple’s revenue model for
its newly launched service may
depend more on in-app purchases
of other services such as HBO
rather than the low $5 per month
fee. For some streamers, analysis
of this collateral behavior may be
the real success metric, though
few people outside the platforms
really know. “It’s a black box,”
says a senior agency source who
scoffs that most of what little
the streamers have released to
date is just “self-serving market-
ing.” That could change, though.
“Transparency is important to us,”
a Netflix spokesperson tells THR.
“So we’re working to share metrics
about how individual shows or
films performed with directors
and producers — starting in theAdults 18-34 accounted
for 1.1M viewers on
Oct. 11 and 2.3M over
its first weekend,
Nielsen estimates.
Stranger Things (season 3)Hastings