22 Asia The EconomistNovember 9th 2019
2 provisions on investment and embryonic
rules on intellectual property.
The agreement will also bring some lo-
gistical benefits. The rules for deciding the
country of origin of manufactured goods
(which typically include components
made in many different places) differ from
one aseanagreement to the next. The new
partnership will help unify those rules.
Imagine a firm that makes furniture in
South-East Asia, says Deborah Elms of the
Asian Trade Centre, an advisory firm in Sin-
gapore. As things stand, it might have to as-
semble tables one way to qualify for prefer-
ential access to the Chinese market and
another way to qualify for low tariffs in Ja-
pan. Under rcepit only has to conform to
one set of rules for access to all 15 markets.
To maintain its geographical reach, the
agreement has sacrificed some depth and
breadth. On services, the members’ com-
mitments apparently vary a lot, with some
countries adopting a “negative list” (ie,
anything not listed is open to trade) and
others a “positive” one (anything not listed
is closed). The text is also likely to include
many noncommittal phrases: “members
shall endeavour to”, rather than “members
shall”. In these sorts of agreements, do and
do not are not the only options. There is
plenty of try.
The partnership also leaves out the
kinds of provisions on the environment,
labour and state-owned enterprises that
America insisted be included in a rival
agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership,
before it lost interest in writing trade
rules—or following them. Because rcep
includes China (and tpppointedly did not),
the pact is often described as a “Beijing-
led” initiative to write the rules of globali-
sation to its liking. But aseanbristles at
that notion. It has organised the negotia-
tions—almost 30 rounds of them. And its
agreements are the sheaves of paper that
rcepis supposed to staple together. “Even
though it’s always been painted as a China-
led initiative...it has always been an asean-
led initiative,” says Ms Elms. “Which is why
it’s taken so long.” 7The Himalayas are not high enough
India, trade deficit with China, $bnSource:IMF11 12102009 13 14 16 1817150-20-40-60R
izwan ahmad says he has everything
he needs for the long haul. The 20-year-
old has swapped his austere madrasa in
Sukkur, a city in Sindh province, for a
makeshift camp beside a motorway out-
side Islamabad, the capital, nearly 1,000km
(620 miles) to the north. He has bedding,
warm clothes, food and shelter. Anything
else, God will provide. Tents, tarpaulins,
food stalls and solar panels to charge mo-
bile phones are laid out among rows of
men bent in prayer.
Mr Ahmad is one of around 50,000 prot-
esters who, led by a veteran Islamist called
Maulana Fazlur Rehman, descended on Is-
lamabad late last month. The orange-tur-
baned leader of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam
(jui-f) party stirred up religious students
to demand the resignation of the prime
minister, Imran Khan. “If the maulana says
‘Go home tomorrow’, we will go home to-
morrow,” explains Mr Ahmad. “If he says
‘Stay a year’, we will stay a year.”
The maulana’s “freedom march” is not
an uprising like the mass tumults shaking
Iraq and Lebanon, but a disciplined display
of partisan street power. As the event
reached the end of its first week, it had be-
come the first concerted opposition chal-
lenge to Mr Khan since he won a general
election in July last year. It has also become
a test for the broader opposition, as bigger
parties ponder how far to push Mr Khan
and how strongly to back the jui-f.
Every evening the maulana has railed
against the former cricketer from the top of
a shipping container, complaining that his
election victory was rigged and that he was
“selected” as prime minister by the army.
The maulana also says Mr Khan is ruining
the economy. On the night the protesters
arrived in Islamabad, he told the crowd
that he was giving Mr Khan 48 hours to
quit. The protesters then threatened to oc-
cupy a bigger crossroads in striking dis-
tance of parliament. Mr Khan is still in of-
fice and the crowd has not closed in. But it
has refused to disperse and the sit-in has
been dominating the life of the capital.
Thousands of police and soldiers have
been drafted in to keep watch on the crowd
and guard against further incursions.
Every day the maulana holds talks with
both the government and the opposition.
His supporters, who hail mainly from rural
backwaters in the provinces of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and Sindh,
spend the day sightseeing before returningto hearhisnightlyspeeches. Uniformed
volunteers in khaki tunics keep order.
Mr Khan has mocked the protest, saying
that the maulana is bitter because he lost
his seat in the election. The cleric once sup-
ported the Afghan Taliban and called for
the imposition of Islamic law, but has re-
cently tried to look more moderate. How-
ever, he still complains that Mr Khan is too
friendly with Ahmadis, a Muslim sect he
considers heretical, and has not allowed
women to take part in the march.
Despite belittling the protesters, Mr
Khan has felt obliged to negotiate with
them. He has offered an inquiry into the
fairness of last year’s election, and even
sent officials to find ways to shelter the
crowds from driving rain. He knows the
pressure that “container politics” can ex-
ert. His own Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf con-
ducted a four-month sit-in in 2014, calling
for the prime minister of the day, Nawaz
Sharif, to resign. That protest and other re-
cent displays of street power by religious
parties were widely thought to have had
military backing. This week’s appears not
to. At any rate, the top brass have issued a
statement saying they will “continue to
support national institutions as and when
asked, as per the constitution.”
The army’s support for Mr Khan seems
to have deterred the bigger opposition par-
ties from giving wholehearted backing to
the jui-f. Mr Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim
League and the Pakistan Peoples Party have
lent moral support, but little else. Many
voters, although dismayed by rising prices
and a slumping economy, think Mr Khan
deserves more time to put things right. But
even if the maulana’s protest is unlikely to
bring down the government, it has invigo-
rated the opposition. It is Mr Khan who is
on the back foot these days. 7ISLAMABAD
A sit-in by religious protesters has put
the government on the defensivePakistan’s reviving oppositionContainer
democracy
The wrath against Khan