2019-11-09_The_Economist_-_Asia_Edition

42 TheEconomistNovember 9th 2019

1

T

he capitalof Visigothic Spain and lat-

er of Castile, famous for its mudéjar

churches and El Greco paintings, the medi-

eval city of Toledo has succumbed to mass

tourism. But the surrounding province is a

representative slice of modern Spain, from

dormitory exurbs of Madrid to struggling

industrial towns along the Tagus valley and

rolling hills of vineyards and olive groves.

It is also the kind of place where Spain’s

general election on November 10th—the

fourth in as many years—will be decided.

A week before the vote, amid the hous-

ing estates of Toledo’s bland new town

there was palpable frustration at the coun-

try’s politicians. “Are we going to vote so

that they can’t agree again?” asked Lidia Ri-

beiro, a student who says she won’t vote

this time. “They are grown-ups. They

should come to an agreement on a govern-

ment.” Since votes are now split among five

national parties and several regional ones,

that is not going to be easy.

The previous election, in April, was won

by the Socialists of Pedro Sánchez, the act-

ing prime minister, but with only 123 of the

350 seats in congress. The Socialists did

even better in local and European elections

a month later. But Mr Sánchez proceeded to

fritter away such advantage as he had. It did

not help that Albert Rivera, the leader of

Ciudadanos, a centre-right party with 57

seats, refused even to discuss an alliance.

During the summer Mr Sánchez offered,

and then withdrew, a coalition to Podemos,

a radical-left party, which rejected his

terms anyway. His advisers were confident

that a fresh election would see the Social-

ists bag an extra 20 seats or so. Yet events

and voter fatigue have turned the election

into a desperately uncertain affair. Mr Sán-

chez may end up with a Pyrrhic victory.

In April he managed to make the vote

about his chosen issues of creating a fairer

society in the wake of Spain’s economic

slump of 2008-13 and stopping Vox, a new

far-right nationalist party. That prompted a

high turnout of 76%, which tends to favour

the left. This time is different. The main is-

sue has become Catalonia, after the Su-

preme Court last month imposed harsh

prison sentences on nine Catalan separat-

ist leaders for sedition over their role in the

illegal referendum and declaration of inde-

pendence in October 2017.

That prompted several days of big and

sometimes violent protests in Barcelona

Spain’s election

Fourth time lucky?

TOLEDO

The fourth election in four years offers no obvious path out of political deadlock

All shook up

Sources:SpanishCentral Electoral Administration; Politico;TheEconomist *Pollofpolls

Spain

Seats in Congress of Deputies

After April 2019 election, total=350

General election polling*

Selectedparties,2019,%

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 176

Podemos

Socialist Party

Others

Ciudadanos

People’s Party

Vox

0

10

20

30

Aprilelection Novemberelection 40

SocialistParty

People’s

Ciudadanos Pa r ty

Podemos

Vox

MásPaís

J FMAM J J A S ON

95% confidence

interval

Majority

Europe

43 A modestRussianmayor

44 Sexualiseddisinformation

44 StoppingspeedingEstonians

45 Charlemagne: Recognising the

Armenian genocide

Also in this section