2 November/3 November 2019 ★ FTWeekend 7SadakoOgatawastheonlyJapaneseand
first woman to run the UN Refugee
Agency, which she did with a determi-
nation and vision that greatly expanded
theconceptofinternationalrelief.
She is best known for the decade,
from early 1991 to late2000, that she
served as UN High Commissioner t aa
time of great global conflict, from Africa
and south-east Asia to the Balkans,
when those fleeing strife were most in
needofhelp.
Most notably, prompted by what hap-
pened toIraqi Kurdsin the first Gulf
war, Ogata, who has died in Tokyo at the
ageof92,extendedUNHCR’soperations
to include assistance for the internally
displaced as well as to those crossing
national borders. She had noqualms
about taking on governments — even
her own nominal bosses at the UN —
whenever they frustrated her humani-
tarianefforts.
Shetransformedthecommunications
role of the agency and, more generally,
turned it into a diplomatic and moral
force, in a departure from its traditional
legalprotectionservices.
Soon after taking office, she commis-
sioned the landmarkState of the
World’s Refugees eport, which broughtrhome to a global audience the magni-
tude of the problems the world was fac-
ing.
She also inspired a greater awareness
in Japan, particularly among the
younger generation, of humanitarian
needs and the country’s international
obligations — although this did not
alwaysresultinmuchaction.
For a Japanese woman of her genera-
tion, she was much ndebted toi
supportive parents and to her husband,
Shijuro Ogata, a former deputy gover-
nor for international affairs at the Bank
of Japan, who ied in 2014d. Together
they had a son and daughter who sur-
viveher.
Sadako Nakamura was born in Tokyo
on September 16 1927 into a diplomatic
family. Her father’s postings took her to
the US, China and Hong Kong where he
ensured that she learnt English. She
graduated from the University of the
Sacred Heart in Tokyo and later
acquired advanced degrees from Geor-
getownandBerkeley.
She chose academia as a career,
becoming a professor of international
politics and later a dean at Sophia Uni-
versity, because women were not
exactly welcomed in the Japanese for-eign service — and certainly not a
motherwithtwoyoungchildren.
But Ogata’s expertise in international
relations(andhercommandofEnglish)
found her appointed to various UN bod-
ies,includingitsCommissiononHuman
Rights, where she worked on refugee
issues in Cambodia and Myanmar, and
aschairoftheexecutiveboardofUnicef,
the worldwide agency for children in
need.
Still, although she came from a liberal
background, she was studiously apoliti-
cal in Tokyo, which meant that she
lacked the domestic sponsors who
might have pushed her name forward
when the UNHCR post became vacant.
The standard Japanese practice with
international appointments was not to
propose its best and brightest but invar-
iablyasenior,butnotnecessarilydistin-
guished, bureaucrat near the end of
theircareer.
As it turned out, she did not need
them. A skilful lobbying campaign on
her behalf was conducted by Robert
Cooper, the Japanophile at the British
Foreign Office, and a young diplomat at
the Japanese embassy in London, sup-
ported by the US government. She
always credited a column I wrote in theFinancial Times with winning her the
job: I said she was eminently qualified
for the post and it appeared the week
before she was confirmed — but the die
hadalreadybeencastbyothers.
Ogata was not exactly idleafter her 10
yearsatUNHCR.In2002,JunichiroKoi-
zumi, then Japanese prime minister,
offered her the job of foreign minister,
butshedeclined.
Nevertheless, back in Tokyo she held
cabinet-level positions covering foreign
aid and Afghanistan. She wrote a mem-
oir ofher life and times and never for-—
got the refugees she had tried to help. Of
her own country’s unwillingness to
admitallbutahandful,shesaidinaJap-
anese newspaper interview three years
ago, “If Japan doesn’t open a door for
people with particular reasons and
needs,it’sagainsthumanrights.”
Yet she was never an all-work-all-the-
time crusader. Ogata played decent ten-
nis, took up golf while based in Geneva
and liked nothing more than a stiff
Scotch whisky when the day was done.
As she often said, “I happen to be Japa-
nese, that’s all.” It was a privilege to
knowher.Jurek MartinObituary
Transformative
advocate for
the world’s
refugees
Sadako Ogata
UN High Commissioner for Refugees
1927-She turned the agency
into a diplomatic and
moral force, beyond its
traditional legal
protection services
Sadako Ogata: ‘I happen to be
Japanese, that’s all’ —APBritain’s great winter election gamble
B
oris Johnson’s winter gamble
to end Britain’sBrexit stasis
has sent a chill through many
MPs in his Conservative
party.
“It’s like brewing,” says one grim Tory
MP preparing for Britain’s first Decem-
ber election in almost 100 years. “You
chuck in lots of ingredients but you
don’t know how it’s going to turn out. It
couldblowupinyourface.”
Mr Johnson’s own team admit they
have no idea how Britain’s most
momentouselectioninagenerationwill
turn out, but there is widespread agree-
ment that the outcome will profoundly
shapethefutureofthecountry,itsecon-
omy, itsplace in the world, even the sur-
vivaloftheUnitedKingdom.
The prime minister, in office for a lit-
tle over three months, is staking every-
thing on a December 12 election which
will take place against the backdrop of a
bitterly divided country, extreme voter
volatility and a traditional two-party
systembeingtornapartbyBrexit.
“Of course it’s a gamble,” admits one
ally of Mr Johnson — especially after
Nigel Farage’s threat on Friday o runt
Brexitpartycandidatesacrossthecoun-
try to compete against the Conserva-
tives and the prime minister’s renegoti-
ateddealwiththeEU.
For Mr Johnson, there is only one
route to a clear victory: knocking a big
hole in the “red wall” of Labour seats in
working-class areas of the Midlands,
WalesandtheNorthofEngland.
That fight will be particularly intense
in the West Midlands, the industrial
conurbation centred on Birmingham: of
the 59 constituencies in the region, all
the seats are held by either Labour or
the Conservatives. If Mr Johnson could
knock down this part of the red wall,
otherseatswouldbesuretofollow.
As campaigning kicks off, there are
some positive signs for Mr Johnson in
Wolverhampton South West, a battle-
ground seat which Labour won in 2017
withamajorityofjustover2,000.
Steve Perry, a bouncer who voted
Leave in 2016, reflects how political loy-the south.Jo Swinson, the party’s new
leader, claims she could be “Britain’s
next prime minister”, but even if she
takes 40-50 seats it could deprive the
Toriesofamajority.
“Ithinkwe’lllose20andgain60,”says
veteranToryMPGaryStreeter.
Much of the Labour heartland that
the Conservatives are targeting is tradi-
tionally hostile territory for the party.
“For many people the Tories remain the
people who closed down the north and
decimated our industry,” says Anthony
Wells, director of political research at
pollstersYouGov.
But this is also Leave-voting country
and Mr Johnson believes he can make
big advances into Mr Corbyn’s core sup-
port, exploiting Labour’s convoluted
position on Brexit — the party wants a
second referendum but will not say yetwhether it would back Leave or Remain
— and an antipathy towards the Labour
leaderamongtraditionalleftvoters.
Mr Johnson needs to persuade former
Labour voters that he will deliver Brexit
and then start helping the “left behind”
towns of England, just as Donald Trump
wooed “forgotten” America. Mr John-
son hopes to frame the contest as“peo-
ple versus parliament”, with him on the
sideofthepeople.
Mr Tanner argues that Mr Johnson
cancombineahardBrexitmessagewith
commitments tohelp struggling towns
and tackle the social care crisis, but “it
requirespoliticalflexibility”.
MrJohnson’sabilitytoconvinceswing
voters that he is tacking to the political
centre has been undermined by his
decision to purge many moderate Tory
MPs because of their criticism of the
political tactics he has adopted.Nicho-
las Soames, Winston Churchill’s grand-
son and one of 21 Tories cast into exileby Mr Johnson, claimedthe party was
adopting a “hard right” Conservatism
andwasbecominga“Brexitsect”.
Atthesametime,hecouldfaceachal-
lenge from Mr Farage’s Brexit party if it
goes ahead, as threatened on Friday, to
field candidates everywhere. Next door
to Wolverhampton South West is
another marginal seat, Walsall North,
but in this case won narrowly by the
Tories. If support for the Brexit party
were to divide the Leave vote, it could
openthewaytoLabourtakingtheseat.
“The big imponderable in this elec-
tion is going to be the Brexit party.. and whether they will do a pact.
[with the Conservatives or] whether
they will split the vote,” says Don Gwin-
nett, a member of the leftwing cam-
paign group Momentum and Labour
activistintheregion.
Leaders’ shortcomings
Large numbers of voters in the area are
undecided — and full of reservations
about both Conservative and Labour
leaders.BlossomVassel,alongtimeresi-
dent of the city,says: “There re issuesa
around Boris Johnson’s language and
demeanour.Ontheotherhand,there’sa
belief that Corbyn would not be a good
primeminister.”
“Thepeopleversusparliament—peo-
pledon’tbuythathere—butBorisistry-
ing his best,” says Neil, who sells baked
potatoes from a van in Wolverhamp-
ton’s city centre, and who was more
upbeatabouttheprimeminister.
Kindan Birhah, who works for Wol-
verhampton city council,reflected the
agonies over Brexit: “If we leave it will
take a long time to regain normality. If
we stay the same is true because the
wholecountryisindisarray.”
The Labour party’s attempts to por-
tray Mr Johnson asMr Trump’s poodle,
willing to sell Britain short in a post-
Brexit US trade deal, appears to be reso-
nating in the West Midlands. Mr
Trump’s intervention in the election
this week — he saidon Mr Farage’s radio
showthat a Corbyn victory would be “so
bad for your country”, while also criti-cising Mr Johnson’s Brexit withdrawal
deal—isonlylikelytohelpLabour.
Diana, a retired caterer living in Wol-
verhampton council housing who has
voted Tory in the past, says she plans to
vote Labour, partly because the local
Labour MP has helped her personally,
and partly because she voted to remain
in the EU. “Now we’ll have to buy our
medical supplies in America and we’ll
beadarnsightworseoff,”shesays.
Thiselectionis,indifferentways,ask-
ing voters whether they feel more com-
fortable with Europe or the US. She says
Mr Johnson is very close to Trump,“
whoisdangerous”.
Ian Humphries, an artist, also
expresses concern about a US trade
deal: “We’ll be at the mercy of bleached
foodandsyntheticstrawberries.”
Stuart Anderson, a former soldier
who runs a personal security company,
is the Conservative candidate for Wol-
verhampton South West. He moved to
thecityafterbeingselectedlastyearand
has been campaigning ever since,
engaging with local issues as much as
trumpetingtheBrexitcause,hesays.
He was flanked by councillors, among
them Hindu, Muslim and Sikh allies,
who say Labour could no longer depend
on the Asian community in the area as a
vote bank. They blame the Labour-con-
trolled council for misgovernance, and
failing over 50 years to regenerate the
city. Labour activists in turn blame 10
yearsofTorycutstocouncilbudgets.
“When you look around the country,
we are in the most volatile situation we
have been in. Wolverhampton amplifies
that,”saysMrAnderson.
Mr Johnson hopes December 12 will
bringclosureto the first stage of Brexit,
raisingspiritsaheadofChristmas.Butin
such a complex electoral situation,
manyMPsfearthepollcouldjustleadto
another hung parliament, more dead-
lockandmoreBrexitparalysis.
“It would be a crisis to have a hung
parliament,” says Ken Clarke, retiring
from the Commons after 49 years as a
Conservative MP. “But I think that’s the
mostlikelyoutcome.”FT BIG READ. UK POLITICS
Boris Johnson’s election strategy requires the Conservatives to pick up Labour seats in depressed working
class areas of the West Midlands and the North. But voter volatility is higher than it has been in decades.
By George Parker and William Wallis
alties in the city with one of one of the
highest unemployment rates in the
country and pockets of deprivation but
where politics has been upended by the
argumentsoverBrexit.
“IusuallyvoteLabour,”saysMrPerry.
“But [Labour leader] Jeremy Corbyn
hasn’t got a clue. He is stuck in the
1970s. I wouldn’t vote Conservative but
Boris has done what he said he would.
He’sgoingforanelectiontounblockit.”
One of the Conservatives’ bets is that
Mr Corbyn, for all his campaigning
energy, will turn out to be an electoral
liability for many Labour MPs on the
stump. “I wouldn’t say they like Boris,
but people here prefer himto Corbyn,”
saysMrPerry.
Given that 40 per cent of people said
they would switch their vote from how
they voted in 2017, according to a Popu-
lussurvey,itiseasytoseewhythisisthe
mostcomplexelectioninyears.
Will Tanner, a former adviser to ex-
prime minister Theresa May and direc-
tor ofOnward, a Tory pressure group,
admits the huge risks in calling an elec-
tion in such a fluid environment.
“Nobody knows what’s going on in the
electorate,” he says. “Voter volatility is
higherthanithasbeenindecades.”Plotting gains and losses
Mr Johnson enters the election with a
double-digit poll lead over Labour, but
the mountain he has to climb remains
daunting. At theprevious election in
2017,Mrs May won 318 seats — short of
the 326 needed for a majority — despite
winning 42 per cent of the vote and
making some advances into Labour’s
northernheartlands.
At this election pollsters predict the
Tories will lose many — perhaps most —
of the 13 seats they hold in Scotland
against a resurgent Scottish National
party, an anti-Brexit party which hopes
to use the poll as a springboard to push
foranotherindependencereferendum.
Meanwhile, the pro-Remain Liberal
Democratsarethreateningtoseizeseats
from Mr Johnson, especially in prosper-
ous Remain-voting areas in London and‘Thereare
issues around
Boris
Johnson’s
language and
demeanour.
[But] there’s a
belief that
Corbyn would
not be a good
prime
minister’
Blossom Vassel04 %
Voterswhosaid
theywouldswitch
partyfromthe
election95
SeatsintheWest
Midlandsregion,
manyofwhichare
Torytargets‘I wouldn’t
vote
Conservative
but Boris has
done what he
said he would.
He’s going for
an election to
unblock it’
Steve Perry‘We’ll be at the
mercy of
bleached food
and synthetic
strawberries
[after a trade
pact with the
US]’
Ian HumphriesFrom left: with
Brexit still
undecided, the
Lib Dems’ Jo
Swinson,
Labour’s Jeremy
Corbyn, the
Conservatives’
Boris Johnson
and the Brexit
party’s Nigel
Farage are
launching their
campaigns in
the most
unpredictable
election in
decades —FT
montage; Reuters; Anna
Gordon.
Portraits by Tom Pilston