Barron\'s - 21.10.2019

M34 BARRON’S October 21, 2019

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedOct16:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 3,593,000 + 3,500 -386,407

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... -62

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 2 .... -6

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit 63 -11 -121

Float -117 -5 + 113

OtherF.R.Assets 27,008 + 1,811 -2,046

TotalFedCredit# 3,909,671 + 346 -229,547

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,053 + 14 + 347

Total 3,996,566 + 311 -229,528

Currencyincirc 1,770,807 + 4,474 + 79,670

Treas.CashHldgs 198 + 8 -29

Treas.FedDeposits 324,604 + 6,413 -8,319

ForeignFedDeposits 5,186 .... -70

OtherFedDeposits 70,320 + 6,229 -8,423

OtherFRliab/cap 45,481 + 8 + 461

Totalfactors 2,516,198 + 26,397 + 143,637

ReservesF.R.banks 1,480,368 -26,087 -373,165

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,411,915 -6,864 -21,462

ReserveAggr(Mil.$sa) Latest Prev. Wk.% Year

TwoWksEnded Oct9: Wk. Week Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 1,555,865 1,462,392 6.39 1,901,375

Nonborrowed Res # 1,555,777 1,462,278 6.39 1,901,103

Required Res ## 203,553 200,449 1.55 195,714

ExcessReserves: 1,352,312 1,261,943 7.16 1,705,661

Borrowed Reserves 88 114 -22.81 272

Free Reserves ### 1,352,224 1,261,829 7.16 1,705,389

MonetaryBase 3,252,407 3,159,045 2.96 3,522,640

#Fedsupplyofpermanentreservesprovided.

##Demandforreservestobackdeposits.

### Free reserves equal excess reserves minus discount window bor-

rowingsotherthanextendedcredit.Freereservesareshorthandmethod

ofdeterminingthedegreeofeaseofFedpolicy,orwhentheyarenegative

netborrowedreserves,tightness.

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 10/18 10/11 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1490.00 1479.15 1227.85

Silver,troyounce 17.56 17.51 14.63

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1550.43 59.63 4.00

MapleLeaf 1565.34 74.54 5.00

MexicanPeso 1805.46 8.00 0.45

AustriaCrown 1464.28 3.00 0.21

AustriaPhil 1565.34 74.54 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1565.34 74.54 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice 1490.80

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 10/17 10/10 Ago Chg.

550.64382.52 Gold mining 507.22 517.47415.34 –1.98

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus Bullish Sentiment 54% 53% 57%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 33.6% 20.3% 21.4%

Bearish 31.1 44.0 39.4

Neutral 35.3 35.7 39.2

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 48% 44% 45%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 52.0% 50.1% 41.6%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 8,193 r27,245 16,760

Municipal (z) 8,297 r11,983 11,575

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

2.82 2.71 4.12

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

3.51 3.52 5.06

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

80.3 77.0 81.4

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

4084.96 4107.68 3227.64

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

3049.22 3053.37 2675.30

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

301.01 303.52 263.92

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

2.70 2.59 4.35

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.60 3.56 4.28

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

–.52 –.42 –1.94

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 2.92 2.91 4.34

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedOctober7

M1(seas.adjusted) 3,887.6r3,925.33,702.4 5.00

M1(notadjusted) 3,811.8r4,060.63,605.2 5.73

M2(seas.adjusted) 15,144.4r15,105.214,235.7 6.38

M2(notadjusted) 15,144.3r15,034.414,246.0 6.31

TwoWeeksendedOctober9

M1Multiplier(St.LouisFed) 1.187 r1.223 1.037 14.46

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedSeptember

M1(seas.adjusted) r3,903.3r3,843.53,727.9 4.71

M2(seas.adjusted) r15,029.2r14,931.314,241.6 5.53

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

N D J F M A M J J A SO

Barron's Gold Mining Index (507.22)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

Gold Rolled: Feeble U.S. economic data

and doubts on the Brexit deal lifted

gold 0.7%, to $1,490 an ounce.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 10/14 10/15 10/16 10/17 10/18

NYSE 1.35 .62 1.28 .96 1.04

NYSEAmerican .38 2.17 1.02 .51 1.64

Nasdaq .91 .88 .98 1.03 1.21

SouthKorea (Won) .0008482 .0008450 1178.91 1183.48

SriLanka (Rupee) .0055 .0055 182.0200 180.5400

Sweden (Krona) .1037 .1019 9.6435 9.8089

Switzerland (Franc) 1.0160 1.0033 .9843 .9967

Taiwan (Dollar) .03273 .03264 30.552 30.641

Thailand (Baht) .03301 .03284 30.290 30.450

Turkey (New Lira)-d .1727 .1699 5.7908 5.8853

Ukraine (Hryvnia) .0399 .0406 25.0835 24.6235

U.K. (Pound) 1.2974 1.2648 .7708 .7906

Uruguay (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02678 .02688 37.340 37.200

----

Euro 1.1170 1.1037 .8953 .9060

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 21 / 2 21 / 2 23 / 4

PrimeRate(base) 5 551 / 4

FedFundsRate

Avg effective offer 121 / 25 141 / 50 211 / 50

Avg weekly auction-c 1.82 1.86 2.18

T-BillsRate

13 weeks, Coupon Yield 1.674 1.715 2.315

13 weeks, Auction Rate 1.640 1.680 2.270

26 weeks, Coupon Yield 1.661 1.733 2.479

26 weeks, Auction Rate 1.620 1.690 2.415
Avg weekly auction-c 1.66 1.74 2.22

BrokerCallRate 3 3/4 3 3/4 4

BankersAcceptances

1 month 2.15 2.05 2.25

2 months 2.15 2.05 2.30

3 months 2.15 2.10 2.43

6 months 2.05 2.10 2.58

EuroLiborRate

1 month -0.499 -0.518 -0.409

3 months -0.435 -0.440 -0.355

6 months -0.411 -0.416 -0.325

12 months -0.316 -0.346 -0.210

LiborInterbankRate

1 month 1.85 1.91 2.28

3 months 1.95 2.00 2.48

6 months 1.95 1.98 2.72

12 months 1.99 1.96 3.02

ForeignPrimeRates

Canada 3.95 3.95 3.70

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475

Switzerland 0.50 0.50 0.50

Britain 0.75 0.75 0.75

OtherMoneyRates

Fannie Mae Home Loan:

30-Year Fixed Conv 3.33 3.28 4.54

Bank money market-z 0.22 0.22 0.21

Interest Checking-z 0.07 0.08 0.08

6-Month Certif-z 0.56 0.57 0.44

12-Month Certif-z 0.80 0.81 0.78
30 Month Accounts-z 0.85 0.86 1.00

5-Year Certificates-z 1.15 1.16 1.35

U.S. Savings EE Bonds:

Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby

theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.
Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.
Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

3.80

3.15

2.50

1.85

1.20

0.55

S&P 100 CBOE

ON D J F M A M J J A S O

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source: CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100

s

CBOE s

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

Friday,October18,2019

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-

vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina (Peso)-y .0172 .0172 58.2780 58.0380

Australia (Dollar) .6854 .6791 1.4590 1.4725

Bahrain (Dinar) 2.6527 2.6524 .3770 .3770

Brazil (Real) .2431 .2433 4.1127 4.1102

Bulgaria (Lev) .5707 .5646 1.7522 1.7713

Canada (Dollar) .7619 .7575 1.3125 1.3201

Chile (Peso) .001407 .001407 710.70 710.50

China (Renminbi) .1412 .1411 7.0817 7.0882

Colombia (Peso) .0002918 .0002916 3426.50 3429.20

Croatia (Kuna) .1501163 .1485288 6.66 6.73

Czech.Rep. (Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercial rate .04358 .04277 22.946 23.378

Denmark (Krone) .1495 .1478 6.6885 6.7673

Ecuador US Dollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt (Pound)-y .0615 .0614 16.2507 16.2810

HongKong (Dollar) .1275 .1275 7.8436 7.8438

Hungary (Forint) .003377 .003326 296.09 300.70

Iceland (Krona) .008028 .008019 124.57 124.70

India (Rupee) .01408 .01410 71.040 70.924

Indonesia (Rupiah) .0000707 .0000708 14145 14128

Israel (Shekel) .2822 .2852 3.5438 3.5068

Japan (Yen) .009224 .009227 108.41 108.38

Kazakhstan (Tenge) .002562 .002568 390.28 389.36

Kuwait (Dinar) 3.2968 3.2918 .3033 .3038

Macau (Pataca) .1238 .1238 8.0783 8.0754

Malaysia (Ringgit)-b .2389 .2389 4.1865 4.1855

Mexico (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0523 .0518 19.1104 19.3236

NewZealand (Dollar) .6387 .6336 1.5657 1.5783

Norway (Krone) .1092 .1101 9.1616 9.0796

Oman (Rial) 2.5970 2.5971 .3851 .3850

Pakistan (Rupee) .00639 .00639 156.375 156.375

Philippines (Peso) .01951 .01942 51.260 51.506

Poland (Zloty) .2609 .2565 3.8333 3.8991

Qatar (Rial) .2749 .2746 3.6378 3.6413

Russia (Ruble)-a .01567 .01558 63.800 64.204

SaudiArabia (Riyal) .2666 .2666 3.7510 3.7508

Singapore (Dollar) .7331 .7288 1.3641 1.3722

SouthAfrica (Rand) .0677 .0677 14.7618 14.7717

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.