Foreign affairs 2019 09-10

The Dictators’ Last Stand

September/October 2019 143

LEO CORREA

/ REDUX

history o‘ democracy, which may both strengthen popular demands for

personal liberties and provide their people with a template for a demo-

cratic transition when an autocratic regime does eventually collapse.

All in all, the structural features on which political scientists usually

focus to gauge the likely fate o‘ authoritarian regimes appear ¿nely

balanced in the case o‘ populist dictatorships. This makes it all the

more important to pay attention to a factor that has often been ignored

in the literature: the sources and the sustainability o‘ their legitimacy.

BROKEN PROMISES

In the twentieth century, democratic collapse usually took the form o‘

a coup. When feuds between political factions produced exasperating

gridlock, a charismatic military o”cer managed to convince his peers

to make a bid for power. Tanks would roll up in front o‘ parliament,

and the aspiring dictator would take the reins o‘ power.

The blatantly antidemocratic nature o‘ these coups created serious

problems o– legitimacy for the regimes to which they gave rise. Any

citizen who valued individual freedom or collective self-determination

could easily recognize the danger that these authoritarian govern-

ments posed. Insofar as these dictatorships enjoyed real popular sup-

port, it was based on their ability to deliver dierent political goods.

Little big man: supporters of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, May 2019