Linda Robinson
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In the year and a hal since December 2017, when Abadi declared
Iraq’s liberation from , three million internally displaced people
have returned to their homes in Iraq. But 1.6 million Iraqis, most o
them Sunnis, are still displaced. The International Organization for
Migration estimates that most o the remaining displaced people have
now been so for over three years—a tipping point that the organiza-
tion and other refugee experts say threatens permanent displacement.
Many o these people are shunned by their fellow Iraqis, who suspect
them o having supported .
The risk is that the resulting tensions could reignite sectarian con-
Çict, drawing disaected Sunnis—especially permanently displaced
ones—back into the arms o . The group has already begun to re-
awaken, as former ¿ghters drift back to their homes, forming sleeper
cells in cities or creating rural safe havens in the Iraqi and Syrian des-
erts. Although attacks have declined since the destruction o the
territorial caliphate, the group claims to be carrying out several dozen
attacks and inÇicting some 300 casualties every week, most o them in
Iraq and Syria, a tally that roughly parallels those o outside observers.PRESSURE DROP
Despite the progress it has made in recent years, Iraq is in a delicate
position. The United States should be doing what it can to not only
ensure the lasting defeat o but also assist Baghdad with the dif-
¿cult work o reconstruction. Since the election o Donald Trump in
2016, however, U.S. policy toward Iraq has become increasingly con-
frontational, as the administration has made Iraq a central battle-
ground in its ¿ghts with Iran.
Trump has presented Iraq with two demands that will be dicult
for the country to meet. In November 2018, as part o its sanctions
policy, Washington ordered Iraq to cease importing electricity and
natural gas (which is used to make electricity) from Iran. In principle,
Baghdad agrees with the goal o achieving energy independence. But
in practice, Iraq currently receives about 40 percent o its electricity
supply from Iran. As Luay al-Khatteeb, Iraq’s electricity minister, ex-
plained to U.S. ocials in December, ¿nding alternate energy sources
will require rebuilding Iraq’s decrepit power grid and addressing the
damage done by decades o war, mismanagement, and corruption—a
project that he estimates will take at least two years. The United States
has issued a series o 90-day waivers, most recently in June, to give