Foreign affairs 2019 09-10

ROBERT D. BLACKWILL is Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the

Council on Foreign Relations. He was U.S. Ambassador to India from 2001 to 2003 and

Deputy National Security Adviser to U.S. President George W. Bush from 2003 to 2004.

ASHLEY J. TELLIS is Tata Chair for Strategic Aairs and a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie

Endowment for International Peace. He served as Senior Adviser at the U.S. Embassy in

New Delhi from 2001 to 2003.

September/October 2019 173

The India Dividend

New Delhi Remains Washington’s Best

Hope in Asia

Robert D. Blackwill and Ashley J. Tellis

F

or two decades, Washington has had high hopes for India on the

global stage. Gigantic, populous, and resource rich, India is, by all

appearances, a superpower in waiting. And as the world’s largest

democracy, it promises—according to those hopes—to be a crucial U.S.

partner at a time o rising competition from authoritarian challengers.

Almost 20 years ago, acting on such expectations, Washington began

resolving the disagreements that had held U.S.-Indian relations back

through the Cold War and into the 1990s. During George W. Bush’s

presidency, U.S. oˆcials gave up their long-standing insistence that

India relinquish its nuclear weapons, allowing Washington and New

Delhi to sign a landmark nuclear accord and opening the way to heavy

U.S. investments—diplomatic, economic, and military—to facilitate

India’s rise. Successive U.S. administrations provided liberal access to

military technologies and promoted India’s role in international insti-

tutions, culminating in President Barack Obama’s endorsement oŒ In-

dian aspirations to permanent membership in the Ž‘ Security Council.

Albeit imperiled by the Trump administration’s disregard for allies and

partners, this basic U.S. approach continues to this day.

Yet the logic o the U.S.-Indian partnership remains misunderstood

by many, especially in the United States. The transformation o U.S.-

Indian ties since the early years o this century has given rise to expec-

tations that, sooner or later, the two countries would become allies in

all but name, closely aligned on virtually every major foreign policy

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