Foreign affairs 2019 09-10

Michael O’Hanlon

196  

downright unnatural. Persuading one country to depend on another

for its security, and perhaps even its survival, runs counter to intu-

ition, common sense, and most o human history. Although Trump’s

rhetoric is often imprudent, it may simply make explicit what many

already suspected about the United States’ dependability.

Reassurance is also di†cult because promises to protect allies

should not be unconditional. U.S. allies should not feel that they can

be reckless, safe in the knowledge that Washington will bail them out

iˆ they get into trouble. In the 1960s, South Korea developed plans

for so-called decapitation strikes to kill the North Korean leadership;

the United States sought to ratchet

down its ally’s o”ensive inclinations.

And in 1965, Pakistan attacked India in

the belieˆ that it was protected by U.S.

security guarantees. Some fear that

Saudi Arabia could attempt something similar today with Iran. As

Trump has pointed out in his criticisms oˆ – members’ military

spending, unconditional reassurance can encourage free-riding by al-

lies, who may assume that the United States will always pick up the

bill for collective defense.

Both deterrence and reassurance require clarity oˆ messaging about

when and how the United States will back up its allies. Given Trump’s

inconsistency and penchant for rhetorical brinkmanship, some oˆ the

greatest sources oˆ worry today come from Washington. Trump waited

until June 2017—nearly sixth months into his presidency—to rea†rm

the United States’ commitment to –’s mutual-defense pledge. He

has questioned whether the United States would come to the aid oˆ an

ally that has failed to meet its pledge to spend at least two percent oˆ

¡¢ on defense. According to anonymous aides quoted in The New

York Times, Trump has even said privately that he does not see the

point oˆ – and would like to withdraw from it. (In June, he also

criticized the United States’ mutual security treaty with Japan as “un-

fair.”) Earlier, on the presidential campaign trail, he mused that per-

haps Japan and South Korea should have their own nuclear weapons

rather than depend on those oˆ the United States.

Somehow, to date, Trump’s words seem to have done little perma-

nent damage. A 2018 Pew poll found growing doubts about U.S. reli-

ability among U.S. allies (only ten percent oˆ Germans and nine percent

oª French people asked expressed con¬dence that Trump would “do

There is a ne art to both

deterrence and reassurance.

19_O'Hanlon_PP_Blues.indd 196 7/22/19 5:54 PM