Michael O’Hanlon
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reason why Washington needs to respond to these kinds o crises in a
way that seems judicious, patient, and nonescalatory, so as to strengthen
its coalition and not scare away key partners.KEEPING THE PEACE
In his 2017 book, All Measures Short of War, the political scientist
Thomas Wright persuasively argues that global orders do not break
down all at once. They are challenged, weakened, and eroded in key
regions where the interests o rival powers come into direct competi-
tion. The western Paci¿c and eastern European are precisely the re-
gions where such developments are most likely today.
But China and Russia will not be so mindless as to attack the heart-
land o a major U.S. ally; American deterrence has not deteriorated
that much, even in the age o Trump. The tough scenarios will be in
the so-called gray zones o conÇict, where classic war-¿ghting con-
cepts do only so much good. U.S. war plans, as best as can be deduced
from the outside, are still too focused on those classic concepts, and
probably too escalatory for a world in which large-scale war between
nuclear-armed powers must be an extreme last resort. Only a deter-
rence strategy that recognizes as much—and develops plans involving
all the tools o statecraft instead o just military force—can respond to
the modern challenges o great-power competition and keep the U.S.-
led system o alliances resolute and reassured.∂