A4 O THEGLOBEANDMAIL| WEDNESDAY,OCTOBER16,
A record number of Canadians
opted to vote early in the federal
election – choosing to cast their
ballot before the leaders make
their final pitch.
According to Elections Canada,
about one million more people
voted in advance polls this year,
compared with the 2015 election.
The turnout is 29 per cent higher
than the record set in 2015.
“The trend is non-stop,” Elec-
tions Canada spokesperson Paul
Giroux said.
The agency views the higher
turnout as a success, given its
mandate to make voting more ac-
cessible and easier. But the higher
turnout in advance polls doesn’t
automatically mean overall turn-
out will go up.
“It’s completely premature” to
say what impact the higher num-
ber of early voters will have on to-
tal turnout, said Tim Abray, a PhD
candidate at Queen’s University
who is studying voter behaviour.
Because this is only the second
election in a row in which ad-
vance polls were open on the
Thanksgiving weekend, he said
not enough data or history are
available to say what the impact
will be.
“We don’t have enough experi-
ence with this,” Mr. Abray said.
While the 2015 election had re-
cord advance poll turnout and
higher than normal overall turn-
out, the two don’t always coinci-
de. For example, in the 2017 Nova
Scotia election, advance polls had
an increase in voters of more than
10 per cent, but once the election
was done, overall turnout hit an
all-time low.The impact of higher turnout
in advance polls on overall num-
bers can go “both ways,” Mr.
Abray said. When it coincides
with higher overall turnout, he
said it’s attributed to the issues on
the campaign resonating with
voters and leading to more en-
gagement. On the flip side, he said
voter turnout in advance polls is
sometimes viewed as suppressing
overall turnout because people
may make voting a lower priority
if they see high numbers early on.
Mr. Giroux attributed the hike
in early voters, in part at least, to
convenience. The advance polls
were open from Friday to Monday.
While the traditional voting day,
on Oct. 21, falls during the week,
when many people are at work,
the advance polls gave people the
chance to vote when their sched-
ules might be less hectic.
In 2015, advance polls were also
open for four days, however, Elec-
tions Canada extended the hours
this time, so that they were open
for 12 hours each day. Mr. Giroux
said in 2015 the hours were not set
nationally and so the polling
times varied among communi-
ties.
According to Elections Canada,
about 4.7 million Canadians voted
in advance polls this year com-
pared to about 3.7 million in 2015.
The ballots from advance polls
are counted before election day,
but Mr. Giroux noted that the re-
sults are released only after the
polls close.
Elections Canada said snow-
storms in Manitoba and resulting
power outages may have prevent-
ed people from voting early in
that region. The agency said it will
beef up resources in Manitoba on
election day and “adjust” services
as required.
Canadians can still vote by
mail-in ballot, as long as it arrives
by Oct. 21, and polls will be open
for 12 hours on election day.Turnoutfor
advancepolls
up29%from
recordsetin
2015election
MARIEKEWALSHOTTAWAAccordingtoElections
Canada,about4.
millionCanadiansvoted
inadvancepollsthis
yearcomparedtoabout
3.7millionin2015.According to a Nanos Research
poll, the Bloc’s public support has
risen by five points during the
campaign outside of Montreal,
which is where most of the swing
ridings in Quebec are located.
Pollster Nik Nanos said that with
Vancouver and the ridings in the
905 area code just outside Toron-
to, Quebec is “one of the top three
battlegrounds” in the current
campaign.
The Nanos poll has the Liberals
in the lead in Quebec at 34.7 per
cent, followed by the Bloc at 24.
per cent, the NDP at 15.5 per cent
and the Conservatives at 15.2 per
cent. The Greens are at 8.3 per
cent and the People’s Party is at
0.7 per cent.The Liberals are dominant in
the Montreal area, but there is a
much tighter race in the rest of
the province where the Liberals
are at 28.5 per cent, the Bloc at 25.
per cent and the Conservatives at
24 per cent.
Mr. Nanos said there is a
unique dynamic in Quebec be-
cause the vote splits “create un-
certainty. This is where the orga-nization on the ground will be
important for all parties.”
The poll was sponsored by The
Globe and Mail and CTV, with a
total of 855 Quebeckers surveyed
from Oct. 4 to Oct. 13. It has a mar-
gin of error of 3.4 percentage
points, 19 times out of 20, with a
margin of error of 4.7 percentage
points for results outside of Mon-
treal.Respondents were asked: “If a
federal election were held today,
could you please rank your top
two current local voting prefer-
ences?” A report on the results,
questions and methodology for
this and all surveys can be found
at tgam.ca/election-polls.WithreportsfromJaniceDickson
andKristyKirkupQuebec:Votesplitstendto‘createuncertainty,’pollstersays
FROMAP
erhaps the best thing that hap-
pened to Conservative Leader An-
drew Scheer in this election cam-
paign was getting clobbered in the
first French-language debate by Bloc Qué-
bécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet.
Mr. Scheer looked like death when it
happened, and it hobbled Conservative
fortunes in Quebec. But when the dust
cleared, the surging Bloc was threatening
Liberal hopes in the province, too – and
Quebec is more crucial to Justin Trudeau.
And what’s more, the Bloc’s rise opens
up a realistic opportunity for Mr. Scheer to
govern in what is likely to be a minority
Parliament. The NDP and the Greens have
said they’d try to stop the Conservatives
from taking power. But Mr. Blanchet will
play let’s-make-a-deal. And now the Bloc
might just have enough seats to hold the
balance of power.
That means Canadians now have a bet-
ter chance of hearing four new words next
week: Prime Minister Andrew Scheer.
At least, he is probably closer now than
he has been at any point in the campaign.
For the Conservatives, it is almost like
an accident. Mr. Scheer’s party hasn’t
gained an inch in opinion polls over the
course of the campaign. Both he and Mr.
Trudeau seem to be facing a none-of-the-
above sentiment. But the rising fortunes of
the Bloc, and a recent bump for the NDP,
have pegged back Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals.
Tracking polls conducted by Nanos Re-
search for The Globe and Mail and CTV
found that as of Sunday, 32.1 per cent of
Canadians would vote Conservative, near-
ly identical to the 32.8 per cent when night-
ly tracking began Sept. 13, two days after
the campaign began. (The three-day roll-
ing poll of 1,200 telephone interviews has a
margin of error of 2.8 per cent, 19 times in
20.)
Mr. Scheer has, in fact, been higher – at
37.8 per cent in the second week of the
campaign. But what’s odd is that his Con-
servatives probably have a better chance
now of winning the most seats in the
House of Commons. That’s because Mr.
Trudeau’s Liberals have slipped, too, in im-
portant places.
The Bloc is now running close to the
Liberals in Quebec, where Mr. Trudeau had
hoped to pick up seats. The NDP, bolstered
by Leader Jagmeet Singh’s sympathetic
performance in the debates, has seen a
bump in support that could help them win
some Liberal-held seats in Toronto, and
weaken Mr. Trudeau’s hold on several oth-
er ridings.
In short, the Liberals and Conservatives
are in a tie. It is hard to say who would win
the most seats in the House of Commons if
the vote were held tomorrow. Neither par-
ty is in a position at this point – although a
lot can change in a week – of winning an
outright majority. It could well be a Parlia-
ment where both have sizable numbers –
say, 135 or 140 seats. And 140 could be
enough for Mr. Scheer, especially if the
Bloc holds the balance of power.
Mr. Blanchet has ruled out a formal coa-
lition – but coalitions are rare in Canada
anyway. Usually, a minority prime minis-
ter rules by putting forward budgets and
legislation that gets support from one par-
ty or another. Since Confederation, therehas been only one coalition, in the First
World War, but 13 minoritygovernments.
A Prime Minister Scheer would need help
in votes, notably on his first Throne
Speech, but Mr. Blanchet has said he will
vote with any party that satisfies Bloc de-
mands.
That provides a potential path to power
for Mr. Scheer.
And the next few days will see a lot
more attention on the idea of Mr. Scheer as
prime minister.
Mr. Scheer made it a key part of his cam-
paign this weekend when he asked for a
majority mandate to stop a Liberal-NDP
coalition. A majority seems unlikely right
now, but the point is to warn centrist vot-
ers in Toronto suburbs that a free-spend-
ing and heavy-taxing NDP could hold sway
with a Liberalgovernment. Stephen Har-
per won the 2011 election using just such a
warning about a Liberal-NDP coalition.
Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals will be making
this last week about a possible Prime Min-
ister Scheer, too – raising it like a bogey-
man to tell voters that if they do not sup-
port the Liberals, they will get a Conserva-
tive PM.
Now both of the biggest parties, closing
a campaign that has so far focused a lot on
Mr. Trudeau, are talking about a possible
Prime Minister Scheer.None-of-the-abovecampaign
turnstotalkofaPMScheer
LosingsupportinQuebec
mayactuallybetheHailMary
theConservativesneeded
CAMPBELL
CLARK
OPINIONConservativeLeaderAndrewScheerspeakstosupportersatacampaignstopin
Trois-RivièresonTuesday.RisingsupportfortheBlocQuébécoiscouldprovetoworkinthe
Conservatives’favour.ADRIANWYLD/THECANADIANPRESSOTTAWA
Party leaders entered the final week of the
federal election campaign aiming to define
the ballot box question to suit their mess-
age, with Liberals and New Democrats tar-
geting their pitch to progressive voters.
Speaking in Fredericton on Tuesday,
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau said the Oct.
21 election is a choice between cost-cutting
Conservatives or a progressive Liberal gov-
ernment.
“In terms of the NDP and the Greens, re-
member this: If you want progressive ac-
tion, you need aprogressivegovernment,
not a progressive opposition. Voting Liber-
al is the only way to stop Conservative
cuts,” Mr. Trudeau said.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh shot back at
that message.
“The Liberals like to talk progressive,
but theygovernconservative,” he said in
Toronto. “I want people to dream big.
Don’t settle for less.”
The term “progressive” is loosely de-
fined, but generally refers to centre-left
policies and socially liberal viewpoints. Mr.
Singh was asked Tuesday why he thinks
the Liberal Leader is now frequently invok-
ing the term on the campaign trail.
“I hope he’s encouraging people to vote
for me,” Mr. Singh joked. “Because that’s
the real progressive alternative for people.”
Mr. Singh was campaigning in Toronto-
Danforth, the riding once represented by
former NDP leader Jack Layton, but went
to the Liberals in 2015. Mr. Singh then made
a stop in Parkdale-High Park, another ur-
ban Toronto seat held by the Liberals that
has previously been represented by the
NDP.
When asked if he wished he hadn’t said
recently that he would be open to discuss-
ing the possibility of a coalitiongovern-
ment, Mr. Singh said: “No not at all. I’m
proud of the fact that I’m ready to fight
Conservatives no matter what and howev-
er I can. ... The majority of Canadians don’t
vote Conservative. The majority of Cana-
dians want a progressive government.”
Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer,
who campaigned in Quebec on Tuesday,
continued to seize on Mr. Singh’s coalition
talk. He said the election comes down to a
decision between a Conservative majority
government or a Liberal minoritygovern-
ment that is beholden to the NDP.
“There is now a clear choice between
our party and an NDP-Liberal coalition,
which will raise taxes, kill jobs, drive out
investment [and] cancel big projects. I
know Canadians won’t want that to hap-
pen and that’s why I’m very optimistic for
Oct. 21st,” he said.
The Conservative Leader refused to
speculate about a potential Conservative
minoritygovernment.
Mr. Scheer made the com-
ments in Quebec City in the
morning, where he pledged
that a Conservativegovern-
ment would work with the
provinces to eliminate inter-
nal trade barriers. His full
Tuesday schedule included
stops in Trois-Rivières, Saint-
Marc-sur-Richelieu and La
Prairie.
Mr. Trudeau started his
day in Fredericton, where he
discussed health care and ac-
cess to abortion in New
Brunswick. Mr. Trudeau then made his
way across the Maritimes, with whistle
stops in Riverview, N.B., and in Nova Sco-
tia, including Masstown and New Glasgow.
The final scheduled stop was an evening
rally at a farmers market in Halifax.
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May cam-
paigned in Kamloops on Tuesday.
Nanos Research did not conduct public
opinion polling on Thanksgiving Monday.
As a result, no new numbers for the daily
tracking survey were released Tuesday
morning.
The most recent results, which were re-
leased Monday, showed the Liberals and
Conservatives tied at 32-per-cent support
each. The New Democrats were at 19 percent, the Greens at 9 per cent, the Bloc
Québécois at 6 per cent and the People’s
Party at 1 per cent.
The poll was sponsored by The Globe
and Mail and CTV, with a total of 1,200 Can-
adians surveyed from Oct. 11 to Oct. 13. It
has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage
points, 19 times out of 20. Respondents
were asked: “If a federal election were held
today, could you please rank your top two
current local voting preferences?” A report
on the results, questions and methodology
for this and all surveys can be found at
http://tgam.ca/election-polls.
Nanos reported Tuesday on some re-
gional trends, including the 905 region of
Toronto suburbs that has historically
played a key role in determining federal
elections. As a note of cau-
tion, regional numbers have
a higher margin of error be-
cause of a much smaller sam-
ple size. Also, the results in-
clude responses that are not
as recent as the national
three-day rolling survey.
Nanos had previously
found that a 16 percentage
point Liberal lead in the 905
during the first week of the
campaign had fallen into a
virtual tie with the Conserva-
tive Party in the second week,
a period that overlapped
with the controversy over images of Mr.
Trudeau in blackface in 2001 and earlier.
However, more recent survey results cov-
ering the week that ended Oct. 13 show the
Liberals have bounced back.
The most recent numbers for the 905
show the Liberals in front with 43-per-cent
support, followed by the Conservatives at
30 per cent, the NDP at 16 per cent and the
Greens at 9 per cent.
The most recent survey of the region in-
cluded 329 respondents. The margin of er-
ror is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points,
19 times out of 20.WithareportfromKristyKirkup
inQuebecCityGrits,NDPvieforprogressivevoteincampaign’sfinalweek
BILLCURRYOTTAWA
MICHELLEZILIOFREDERICTON
JANICEDICKSONTORONTO
Themajority
ofCanadiansdon’t
voteConservative.
Themajority
ofCanadianswant
aprogressive
government.JAGMEETSINGH
NDPLEADERELECTION