The Economist

24 The EconomistAugust 4th 2018

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1

I

N MARCH 2011 a tsunami engulfed the

Fukushima power plant in Japan ulti-

mately causing a meltdown. The worst nu-

clear disaster since Chernobyl it was a dev-

astating blow to an industry that has been

in the doldrums since the 1980s. Nuclear

plants closed around the world. The

amount of electricity generated by nuclear

power plunged 11% in two years and has

not recovered since. Within this declining

industry one countrynow dominates the

market for design and export of nuclear

plants: Russia.

Flat domestic demand for electricity

has curtailed construction of new plants at

home so Rosatom Russia’sstate-owned

nuclear-power company has been flog-

ging its wares abroad. It is focused on what

Stephan Solzhenitsyn a nuclear-energy

analyst with McKinsey calls the “great

grand middle”: countries that are close al-

lies of neither the United States nor Russia.

In April Russia started building Turkey’s

first nuclear plant worth $20bn. Its first re-

actor is due for completion in 2023. Rosa-

tom says it has 33 new plants on its order

book worth some $130bn. A dozen are un-

der construction including in Bangladesh

India and Hungary.

Energy exports have long been a pillar

of Russian foreign policy typically in the

form of its abundant oil and gas supplies.

Exporting nuclear plants is trickier but in

over a large portion of a country’s electric-

ity-generation capacity. In theory Russia

might threaten to raise the price of ura-

nium or simply to close a reactor operated

by Rosatom. The relationship between ex-

porter and customer is particularly close in

a nuclear plant’s early years when local

employees are still being trained and the

exporting country is directly involved in

the plant’s operation. The threat is espe-

cially potent in countries where a new nuc-

lear plant represents a significant share of

the electricity supply. Rooppur the Rus-

sian-built nuclear-power station in Bangla-

desh for instance will provide 2400

megawatts accounting for 15% of total gen-

eration capacity.

Vulnerable countries have long grown

accustomed to Russia’s habit ofwielding

energy as a geopolitical weapon. Ultima-

tums over gas supplies were once a regular

feature of eastern European winters but

some ways a better bet says Mr Solzhenit-

syn. Reactor sales bring in more money

than fossil fuels as they are generally ac-

companied by a suite of services including

provision of nuclear fuel training for engi-

neers and regulatory consulting. Each

plant is a multi-billion-dollar project unaf-

fected by swings in commodity prices and

locks customers into decades-long rela-

tionships with Russia.

Once completed the plantsoffer an ob-

vious diplomatic lever in the form of sway

Russia and nuclear power

Atoms for peace

SOCHI

The world’s worrying reliance on Russian nuclear technology

Europe

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27 Charlemagne: Cheer up Deutschland

Hinkley Point

Britain

Rooppur

Bangladesh

Barakah

UAE

Sanmen

China

Ostrovets

Belarus

HanhikiviFinland

Paks

Hungary

Akkuyy

Turkey

Kovvada

India

Kudankulam

India

Atucha

Argentina

Thyspunt

South Africa

RUSSIA

New nuclear-

reactor exports

Under construction

or planned

July 2018

Source: World

Nuclear Association

Russia

China

South Korea

France

United States