The Economist

The EconomistAugust 4th 2018 Europe 25

2 lately the threat has grown more sophisti-
cated. In 2015 Russia launched a cyber-as-
sault on Ukraine’selectricaltransmission
system. Last week America’s department
of homeland security said that Russia’s
military intelligence agency had hacked
into the control rooms of American power
plants. Cautious hosts might be forgiven
for wondering whether their new Russian
nuclear plants come with back doors that
would enable similar attacks.
Still Agneta Rising director general of
the World Nuclear Association says that
geopolitics tends not to complicate Rosa-
tom’s export plans. Any influence the
Kremlin can exert through its plants is lim-
ited by the supervision of the International
Atomic Energy Agency. Rosatom’s influ-
ence weakens over time because custom-
ers typically insist that it trains local engi-
neers to run their plants. Customers can
source their nuclear fuel elsewhere. And
Russian potential mischief-making would
spook buyers in other countries.
Yet concerns persist. In 2017 a South Af-
rican court blocked a $76bn deal with Ro-
satom that hadbeen secretly brokered be-
tween Presidents Jacob Zuma and
Vladimir Putin. Closer to home this year
Rosatom started building a reactor in Hun-
gary months after Mr Putin was warmly re-
ceived in Budapest by Viktor Orban Hun-
gary’s prime minister. The deal is financed
by a €10bn ($11.6bn) loan from Russia and
Rosatom will operate the plant and supply
its fuel. That prompts fears that Russia
could use the plant as diplomatic leverage.

Two-state race

Russia’s nuclear programme has endured

for two main reasons. Its designs are cheap

and Rosatom enjoys the backing of the

state which helps it absorb hard-to-insure

risks like nuclear meltdowns. Its competi-

tors trail hopelessly: France’s Areva (now

Orano) has started building only two

plants in the past ten years in Finland and

China; both are delayed and over budget.

KEPCO South Korea’s energy company is

facing a domestic backlash against nuclear

power while Westinghouse in America is

only now emerging from bankruptcy.

Russia’s only real competitor is China

another country where government and

business are tightly entwined. Until recent-

ly China has focused on meeting soaring

demand for electricity at home. But im-

porting raw materials and exporting tech-

nology is a better long-term bet and so it

has started to look abroad. A Chinese state-

backed firm is partly funding Hinkley Point

in Britain and others are involved in plants

in Argentina and Turkey. Yet although Chi-

na will surely catch up for now Russia has

no serious rivals in the export of nuclear

technology. In a world that needs to gener-

ate much more electricity from nuclear

power if it is to take decarbonisation seri-

ously that is a sobering thought. 7

I

T WAS all smiles and backslaps between

Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdo-

gan the presidents of America and Turkey

at aNATOsummit in Brussels last month.

And why not? The two men share a taste

for demagoguery handing government

jobs to relatives and insulting (or in Mr Er-

dogan’s case imprisoning) journalists. But

their relationship has suddenly soured.

The row centres on Andrew Brunson a

Presbyterian preacher from North Caroli-

na who was imprisoned in Turkey in 2016

on flimsy terrorism and espionage charges.

For two decades Mr Brunson ministered to

a tiny flock of Turkish Protestants in Izmir.

Christian missionaries are often regarded

with suspicion in Muslim-majority Turkey.

But Mr Brunson’s woes are of a more earth-

ly sort. Relying on secret testimony Turkish

prosecutorsallege that he supported an

abortive military coup in 2016 that Mr Er-

dogan says was orchestrated by Fethullah

Gulen a cleric based in Pennsylvania. Mr

Brunson also stands accused of links to

Kurdish terrorists. His trial began in April.

The charges which he firmly denies carry

up to 35 years in prison. Mr Brunson’s fam-

ily say he has lost weight and suffered de-

pression and was kept in overcrowded

conditions. His cause has been taken up by

evangelical Christians in America led by

Mike Pence the vice-president.

Last week the disputeappeared close to

resolution. Mr Trump believed that Turkey

would free Mr Brunson in exchange for his

efforts to persuade Israel to release a Turk-

ish woman held on smuggling charges.

The Americans reportedly also offered to

go easy on Halkbank a Turkish state lender

that faces penalties for helping Iran evade

sanctions. But the deal collapsed after a

Turkish court merely remanded Mr Brun-

son to house arrest. Mr Trump fumed that

America would impose “large sanctions”

on Turkey for the prolonged detention. De-

nying that he had agreed to a swap Mr Er-

dogan dismissed these threats as “psycho-

logical warfare”. But they are rather more

than that. On August 1st the Treasury im-

posed financial sanctions on two Turkish

ministers. Congress is considering a bill

that would block loans to Turkey from in-

ternational financial institutions. The Turk-

ish lira has tumbled.

A series of other arguments has es-

tranged the two countries. Turkey is out-

raged over American support for Kurdish

rebels in Syria. Fearing that itsNATOally is

slipping into Vladimir Putin’s orbit Ameri-

ca is refusing to deliver a shipment of F-35

fighter jetsunless Turkey drops its plans to

buy a Russian missile-defence system. Tur-

key has detained a dozen or so Americans

and three Turkish employees at American

consulates as part of a broader crackdown

in connection with the foiled coup.

This tangle of disputes means Mr

Trump’s threats may backfire. “Ankara sees

Brunson as leverage in a grand bargain that

includes resolution of all their differences”

said Sinan Ulgen a former diplomat who

runsEDAM a think-tank in Istanbul. For

Mr Erdogan to free Mr Brunson now he

adds would be “perceived as buckling to

American extortion”.

Other Americans incarcerated in Tur-

key are even worse off than Mr Brunson

since they lack advocates in the White

House. In 2016 Serkan Golge a 38-year-old

Turkish-American physicist working for

NASA was arrested on suspicion of terro-

rism while on holiday in Turkey. In Febru-

ary he received a seven-and-a-half-year

prison sentence. The evidence against him

included such enormities as having an ac-

count at a Gulen-affiliated bank. 7

Repression in Turkey

Erdogan’shostages

ISTANBUL

The detention of an evangelical

preacher sours relations with America

Brunson the Sultan’s bargaining chip