The Economist

The EconomistAugust 4th 2018 Middle East and Africa 37

2 leased about 100 prisoners (again without
any official statement) including some
locked up for their faith. Eritrea allows only
four denominations: Orthodox Lutheran
Catholic and Sunni. Yet a Protestant Pente-
costal preacher from Eritrea was recently
seen proclaiming his faith loudly on a busy
street in Asmara. Ethiopian music also
banned is playing in public once again.
Senior officials have admitted to for-
eign diplomats that a great deal must now
change. But opening up (officials are loth to
speak of “reform”) will be hard. The gov-
ernment is said to want to release its oldest
conscripts someof whom are in their 60s.
But nobody knows for sure how many
there are or whether the government will
grant them exit visas. “In principle [reform]
should be gradual” says Mehreteab Med-
hanie a ruling-party official.
Mr Isaias the only president since inde-
pendence appears to be gambling that he
can bring Eritrea out of international isola-

tion without weakening his grip on power.

On July 30th the former guerrilla chief re-

stored ties with Somalia. There is little sign

that he plans to introduce political reforms

such as implementing the constitution

drawn up in 1997 but shelved with the out-

break of war. Eritrea has never had a na-

tional election and parliament has not met

since 2002. Mr Isaias governs alone sur-

rounded by a clique of ageing veterans of

the independence struggle. In a café on a

tree-lined avenue in Asmara a 40-year-old

conscript points to a photograph of the

president on his phone. “You see this

man?” he asks. “That man is a dictator.”

Almost everyone in Eritrea lost mem-

bers of their family during its decades of

conflict. “Everywhere you feel the weight

of war” says Yemane Gebremeskel the in-

formation minister. Fordecades the gov-

ernment used conflict and the threat posed

by Ethiopia to justifyits repressive policies.

But now the war is over. 7

S

O MUCH for a fresh start. The elections

in Zimbabwe on July 30th were meant

to usher in a new era for a country ruined

by nearly four decades of misrule by Rob-

ert Mugabe. But the vote and its aftermath

have showcased an all-too-familiar mix of

chicanery and violence on the part of

Zanu-PF the ruling party and its military

backers. After toppling Mr Mugabe in a

bloodless coup in November and promis-

ing a clean election they have returned to

form. And in doing so they have thrown

into jeopardy their plans to end Zimba-

bwe’s pariah status.

The week began peacefully enough.

Under the gaze of observers from three

continents election day was the most or-

derly in recent memory. As soon as count-

ing began however theMDCAlliance the

main opposition bloc complained that the

vote was rigged. On August 1st thousands

of its supporters flocked to downtown Ha-

rare claiming that their leader Nelson

Chamisa had won the presidential race.

Some protesters set fire to tyres and

pulled down posters of President Emmer-

son Mnangagwa the leader of Zanu-PF.Mr

Chamisa has been irresponsibly claiming

a colossal victory for weeks whipping up

his supporters. But the response by securi-

ty forces was brutally disproportionate. At

first police dispersedMDCsupporters us-

ing water cannons and tear gas. Then as ar-

moured vehicles rolled into Harare and

military helicopters whirred overhead

soldiers beat and shot those in the way.

Three people were killed.

For Zimbabweans these scenes stirred

memories of 2008 when the ruling elite

rigged the presidential vote to prevent an

MDCvictory before unleashing a cam-

paign of murder and torture. A repeat on

that scale seems unlikely. But the violence

is a sign that “the New Dispensation” as

Mr Mnangagwa calls his post-Mugabe re-

gime looks a lot like the old one.

Not that this should come as a surprise.

For weeks local human-rights groups and

American and European observers have

warned that Zanu-PFwas again trying to

rig an election. An hour or so before vio-

lence broke out Elmar Brok the chief EU

observer listed the ways in which Zanu-PF

had sought to sway the vote from handing

out food seed and fertiliser in rural areas to

threats of violence. “A truly level playing

field has not yet been achieved” he noted.

Observers declined to estimate the in-

fluence of these practices on the final re-

sults. AsThe Economistwent to press the

Zimbabwe Electoral Commission had an-

nounced that Zanu-PFwon 144 out of the

210 contested seats in the National Assem-

bly (with three outstanding). Tallies from

the separate presidential ballot had not

been released.

These results raise a question. If victory

seemed in sight why did the government

resort to violence? For some it is a sign that

Mr Chamisa may be the rightful winner.

For others it reflects growing divisions be-

tween the army and ruling party. The sim-

plest answer might be that this is the natu-

ral reaction of a regime steeped in blood.

Whatever the reason the conse-

quences may be far-reaching. Although

Western observers had already seemed

hesitant to endorse the fairness of the elec-

tion those from the African Union and the

Southern African Development Commu-

nity appeared minded to give it a pass. But

dead protesters make it hard for all but the

blindest observer to say that this election

shows that Zanu-PFhas changed.

And it puts Mr Mnangagwa should he

triumph by foul means or fair in some-

thing of a bind. An orderly election was

supposed to be the first hurdle cleared on

the path to getting loans from the IMF

(which in turn would be a signal to other

creditors). But even if his government now

embarks upon IMF-friendly economic re-

forms the chaos of the election makes it

more difficult for America and the EUto

supportIMFloans.

Lining up to vote on July 30th Munya-

radzi Sibanda a 35-year-old security guard

from Harare noted that his pay had been

flat for eight years while prices in the shops

kept rising. He cycles two hours to and

from work every day to save on transport

costs. He gets back just in time to see his

children for ten minutes before they go to

bed. “We just need change” he says. Sadly

there seems little on the way. 7

Zimbabwe’s elections

A bloody ballot

HARARE

A violent response to adisputedelection shows that Zimbabwe’s rulers are still up

to their old tricks

The ruling party’s new voter-outreach programme