The Economist

38 Middle East and Africa The EconomistAugust 4th 2018

1

F

EW believed President Bashar al-Assad

would survive the rebellion that swept

his country seven years ago. But Syria’s

blood-soaked dictator is on the brink of de-

feating those who tried to topple him. The

only rebels left are boxed into a corner of

Syria’s north-west in Idlib province. Re-

gime forces are mustering at its edge hav-

ing recently seized rebel-held areas near

the border with Jordan and Israel in the

south. The fall of Idlib would sound the re-

bellion’s death knell.

Trapped between rebels and the regime

in Idlib are 2.6m civilians. More than half

have already fled fighting in other parts of

the country. The offensive in the south

pushed hundreds of thousands of Syrians

out of their homes. TheUNwarns that an

assault on Idlib could displace 2m more.

Turkish border guards are likely to shoot

them (as they have donein the past)if they

try to cross into Turkey.

Even as this potential exodus looms

there is increasing talk of sending home the

6m Syrians who have already fled to coun-

tries such as Turkey Lebanon and Jordan

(see map). Russia which props up Mr As-

sad wants to help 1.7m refugees including

200000 from Europe go back in the near

future. It sees their return as confirmation

that the war is ending Mr Assad has won

and the country is stable. As part of the

plan it has asked America and European

countries to pay for Syria’s reconstruction

which could cost as much as $250bn a sum

Russia and the Assad regime cannot afford.

European powers have struggled to

cope with the influx of Syrian refugees

which has fuelled populism. Butthey insist

that they will not be blackmailed. They

want to use reconstruction money as a bar-

gaining chip to force Mr Assad to make

concessions and set Syria on a less tyranni-

cal path. The dictator though has no inter-

est in negotiating over a war he is winning.

America has not replied publicly to Rus-

sia’s plan but President Donald Trump

seems to want little to do with Syria.

Russia has already begun reaching out

to Jordan and Lebanon which grumble

about the difficulty of absorbing huge

numbers of Syrian refugees. The Russian

plan has gone down especially well in Leb-

anon which has started to send refugees

back. About1200 returned on July 28th ac-

cording to Syrian state television. Even Leb-

anese officials opposed to Mr Assad say

they are willing to co-operate with Russia

and the regime if it means more follow.

TheUNsays Syria is still too unsafe for

most refugees to return. Nevertheless it is

ramping up support for those coming back.

It has opened nearly 100 centres to provide

handouts such as plastic sheeting for war-

damaged homes. If the trickle of returning

refugees turns into a flow the West may

feel increasing pressure to help rebuild

their houses schools and hospitals.

Mr Assad says refugees especially busi-

nessmen are welcome to return. But he

seems in no rush to take back many of

them. Most are Sunnis who were once a

large majority in Syria—and the backbone

of the rebellion. Mr Assad who is Alawite

(an esoteric offshoot of Shia Islam) says

Syria has “won a healthier and more ho-

mogenous society”. Refugees must obtain

permission from the security services to re-

turn. Thousands have applied; only a few

have been allowed back.

Mr Assad is using reconstruction to

punish refugees and reward loyalists. He is

reluctant to take money from the West

which would have strings attached. In-

stead he takes from his people. A decree

called Law 10 allows the regime to grab

property from Syrians unless they can

prove their ownership—hard for those

who have fled. Refugees can designate

family members in Syria to represent

them but they must obtain a certificate of

good conduct from the police. Anyone

with ties to the opposition is unlikely to get

one. Many Sunni homes and shops have

already been given to regime loyalists.

There are plenty of other reasons why

refugees are staying away. Returning men

face military conscription. Some have

been arrested and tortured for alleged

links to the rebels. Neighbourhoods are lit-

tered with mines and unexploded bombs.

Millions of homes have been flattened or

damaged in the fighting.

But Mr Assad’s policies such as Law 10

also act as a magnet. Many refugees want

to claim their assets before it is too late.

Others fear that if they don’t go back soon

they may be kept out for ever. And as life in

refugee camps grows more miserable

some are choosing to return. Back home

though their fate is uncertain. “My hus-

band went back to make sure our house

wasn’t sold” says Sara al-Hussein a refu-

gee in Lebanon. “He’s now living in a tent

in a camp for displaced people. There is no

future for us not here and not in Syria.” 7

Syria’s refugees

The long road

back

BEIRUT

Refugees have become a pawn in the

struggle for Syria

The courageous few

SYRIA

IRAQ

JORDAN

ISRAEL

CYPRUS

LEBANON

EGYPT SAUDI ARABIA

Mediterranean

Sea

Euph

rate

s

Damascus

Source: UNHCR *July 2018 or latest available

IDLIB

3.54

Syrian refugees

By destination* m

0.98

0.83

0.67

0.13

0.03

0.25

Internally

displaced*

6.50

North Africa

Europe

TURKEY

200 km

F

OR a generation the Saudi antiquities

authority has kept it under wraps. The

ruins remain out of bounds behind metal

gates and wire fencing. A guard shoos the

curious away with threats of arrest. But if

independent studies are correct tucked in

the dunes and palms near the eastern oil-

fields lies a 7th-century monastery the ex-

istence of which suggests that Islam once

tolerated church-building in Arabia.

Muhammad bin Salman the moder-

nising crown prince has defied clerics by

allowing cinemas open-air pop concerts

and even female drivers in his puritanical

kingdom. But approving churches for the

1.4m Christians in Saudi Arabia risks break-

ing one taboo too many. “Elsewhere it’s no

problem but two dins or religions have

no place in the Arabian peninsula” says a

senior prince reciting a purported saying

of the Prophet Muhammad. Churches

were expunged by the first community of

Muslims 14 centuries ago he insists.

Excavation at Jubail and other sites

along the eastern coast suggests otherwise.

Chroniclers record the existence of a synod

in a diocese called Beit Qatraye near Ju-

bail in 676AD more than 40 years after the

Prophet’s death. Moreover the peninsula’s

six other countries all have churches. Qa-

tar which follows the same Wahhabi

Saudi Arabia

Hosannahs in the

sand?

JUBAIL

The kingdom may be about to relax its

ban on Christian churches