The Economist

The EconomistAugust 4th 2018 7

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ARTH is smouldering. From

Seattle to Siberia this sum-

mer flames have consumed

swathes of the northern hemi-

sphere. One of 18 wildfires

sweeping through California

among the worst in the state’s

history is generating such heat

that it created its own weather. Fires that raged through a coast-

al area near Athens lastweek killed 91 (see Science section).

Elsewhere people are suffocating in the heat. Roughly 125 have

died in Japan as the result of a heatwave that pushed tempera-

tures in Tokyo above 40°C for the first time.

Such calamities once considered freakish are now com-

monplace. Scientists have long cautioned that as the planet

warms—it is roughly 1°C hottertoday than before the industrial

age’s first furnaces were lit—weather patterns will go berserk.

An early analysis has found that this sweltering European

summer would have been less than half as likely were it not

for human-induced global warming.

Yet as the impact of climate change becomes more evident

so too does the scale of the challenge ahead. Three years after

countriesvowed in Paris to keep warming “well below” 2°C

relative to pre-industrial levels greenhouse-gas emissions are

up again. So are investments in oil and gas. In 2017 for the first

time in four years demand for coal rose. Subsidiesfor renew-

ables such as wind and solar power are dwindling in many

places and investment has stalled; climate-friendly nuclear

power is expensive and unpopular. It is tempting to think these

are temporary setbacks and that mankind with its instinct for

self-preservation will muddle through to a victory over global

warming. In fact it is losing the war.

Living in a fuel’s paradise
Insufficient progress is not to say no progress at all. As solar
panels wind turbines and other low-carbon technologies be-
come cheaper and more efficient their use has surged. Last
year the number of electric cars sold around the world passed
1m. In some sunny and blustery places renewable power now
costs less than coal.
Public concern is picking up. A poll last year of 38 countries
found that 61% of people see climate change as a big threat;
only the terrorists of Islamic State inspired more fear. In the
West campaigning investors talk of divesting from companies
that make their living from coal and oil. Despite President Do-
nald Trump’s decision to yank America out of the Paris deal
many American cities and states have reaffirmed their com-
mitment to it. Even some of the sceptic-in-chief’s fellow Re-
publicans appear less averse to tackling the problem (see Un-
ited States section). In smog-shrouded China and India
citizens choking on fumes are prompting governments to re-
think plans to rely heavily on coal to electrify their countries.
Optimists say that decarbonisation is within reach. Yet
even allowing for the familiar complexities of agreeing on and
enforcing global targets it is proving extraordinarily difficult.
One reason is soaring energy demand especially in devel-

oping Asia. In 2006-16 as Asia’s emerging economies forged

ahead their energy consumption rose by 40%. The use of coal

easily the dirtiest fossil fuel grew at an annual rate of 3.1%. Use

of cleaner natural gas grew by 5.2% and of oil by 2.9%. Fossil fu-

els are easier to hook up to today’s grids than renewables that

depend on the sun shining and the wind blowing. Even as

green fund managers threaten to pull back from oil companies

state-owned behemoths in the Middle East and Russia see

Asian demand as a compelling reason to invest.

The second reason is economic and political inertia. The

more fossil fuels a country consumes the harder it is to wean

itself off them. Powerful lobbies and the voters who back

them entrench coal in the energy mix. Reshaping existing

ways of doing things can take years. In 2017 Britain enjoyed its

first coal-free day since igniting the Industrial Revolution in the

1800s. Coal generates not merely 80% of India’s electricity but

also underpins the economies of some of its poorest states (see

Briefing). Panjandrums in Delhi are not keen to countenance

the end of coal lest that cripple the banking system which lent

it too much money and the railways which depend on it.

Last is the technical challenge of stripping carbon out of in-

dustries beyond power generation. Steel cement farming

transport and other forms of economic activity account for

over half of global carbon emissions. They are technically

harder to clean up than power generation and are protected by

vested industrial interests. Successescan turn out to be illu-

sory. Because China’s 1m-plus electric cars draw their oomph

from an electricity grid that draws two-thirds of its power from

coal they produce more carbon dioxide than some fuel-effi-

cient petrol-driven models. Meanwhile scrubbing CO 2 from

the atmosphere which climate models imply is needed on a

vast scale to meet the Paris target attracts even less attention.

The world is not short of ideas to realise the Paris goal.

Around 70 countries orregions responsible for one-fifth of all

emissions now price carbon. Technologists beaver away on

sturdier grids zero-carbon steel even carbon-negative cement

whose production absorbs more CO 2 than it releases. All these

efforts and more—including research into “solar geoengineer-

ing” to reflect sunlight back into space—should be redoubled.

Blood sweat and geoengineers

Yet none of these fixes will come to much unless climate list-

lessness is tackled head on. Western countries grew wealthy

on a carbon-heavy diet of industrial development. They must

honour their commitment in the Paris agreement to help

poorer places both adapt to a warmer Earth and also abate fu-

ture emissions without sacrificing the growth needed to leave

poverty behind.

Averting climate change will come at a short-term financial

cost—although the shift from carbon may eventually enrich

the economy as the move to carbon-burning cars lorries and

electricity did in the 20th century. Politicians have an essential

role to play in making the case for reform and in ensuring that

the most vulnerable do not bear the brunt of the change. Per-

haps global warming will help them fire up the collective will.

Sadly the world looks poised to get a lot hotter first. 7

In the line of fire

The world is losing the war against climate change

Leaders