2 ★ FT Weekend 19 October/20 October 2019
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[email protected]WORLD|
WEEK IN REVIEW|
Catalonia protests turn violent after
imprisonment of separatist leadersCatalonia erupted in protest and violence after stiff
prison sentences were handed down to separatist
leaders. Flights were cancelled after Barcelona air-
port became the scene of clashes between the police
and demonstrators, while the city’s main boulevards
were also under siege, and protests were also seen in
other Catalan cities.
Nine leaders were sentenced to between nine and
13 years in jail for their role in the 2017 independence
referendum.
The protests split the separatist movement. Span-
ish prime minister Pedro Sánchez called on pro-
independence leaders to denounce the violence, as
some worried the clashes would damage the separa-
tist cause.A retired law professor nicknamed Robocop for his
stilted manner was elected president of Tunisia by a
thumping majority, even though he barely cam-
paigned, had no party backing and ran with no clear
agenda.
Kais Saied, who speaks in classical Arabic,
defeated Nabil Karoui, a wealthy businessman and
television tycoon. The new president, aged 61, was
elected with 73 per cent of the vote. He said he would
shun the presidential palace and continue to live in
his own home.
Analysts said his massive win was a stunning
indictment of the Tunisian elite. Tunisia has been
viewed as the only democracy to emerge from the
Arab uprisings in 2011.IMF forecasts slowest rate of global
economic expansion since 2009Lam silenced by Hong Kong
pro-democracy politiciansHong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam was forced to
suspend her annual policy speech after she was
shouted down by pro-democracy lawmakers in the
city’s legislative chamber.
As she entered the chamber, lawmakers held up
posters depicting Ms Lam with blood on her hands.
As protests continued, the US passed an act requiring
an annual assessment of Hong Kong’s preferential
trade status terms with Washington.
Delivering her speech by video, Ms Lam warned
Hong Kong had entered a technical recession, as she
announced economic measures to resolve the crisis.
The IMF downgraded its gross domestic product
growth forecast for the territory to 0.3 per cent.Annual change in gross domestic product WorldG4*ForecastSource: IMF * US, China, eurozone, JapanThe IMF estimates the world economy will grow by
only 3 per cent in 2019, a drop of 0.3 percentage points
from its forecast six months ago. That would be the
slowest rate of expansion since 2009.‘Robocop’ Saied elected to Tunisia
presidency with sweeping majorityD O N W E I N L A N D, S U N Y U A N D
X I N N I N G L I U— BEIJINGChina’s economy grew at 6 per cent in
the third quarter of 2019 compared with
a year earlier, its slowest pace in about
30 years, delivering another blow to glo-
bal growth and underlining many of the
challenges facing President Xi Jinping.
The country’s trade war with the US,
slowing income growth and cooling
manufacturing investment took a toll
on the world’s second-largest economy
between July and September, according
to the figures released by the National
Bureau of Statistics yesterday.
The gross domestic product data
came in below analysts’ expectations of
6.1 per cent and revealed that China’sgrowth was running at a level compara-
ble with the late 1980s. However, the
overall size of the economy is far larger
and, by many accounts, cannot con-
tinue expanding at double-digit rates as
it did until this decade.
“I think 6 per cent is a stress test to the
market,” said Zhou Hao, a senior econo-
mist at Commerzbank. “On the one
hand, China seems to be willing to
accept somewhat lower growth and is
sending a signal that 6 per cent is not an
untouchable bottom line.”
On the other hand, Mr Zhou said, the
market is growing wary of slowing
growth and policymakers’ reluctance to
use stronger stimulus measures.
Following the release of the GDP fig-
ures, the CSI 300 index of Shanghai and
Shenzhen stocks was down 1.3 per cent.
The renminbi was little changed.
China’s gloomy GDP numbers follow a
warning from the IMF this week that
global growth will fall to its lowest levelsince the international financial crisis.
The world economy was set to grow
3 per cent in 2019, 0.3 percentage points
below its equivalent forecast six months
ago, the IMF said.
The concerns affecting developed
markets were also leading to less invest-
ment in China this year, analysts said.
“The major risk for global growth has
been the cutting of capital expenditure
due to instability from the trade ten-
sions, Brexit and in the Middle East,”
said Zhu Chaoping, JPMorgan Asset
Management’s Shanghai-based global
market strategist. “We have this in the
US, the EU and now also in China.”
Analysts had expected a rebound in
China’s fixed-asset investment but
growth in construction activity slowed
to 4.7 per cent year on year in the third
quarter from 5.5 per cent in the second
quarter, a significant decline.
The veracity of China’s official data is
often called into question and someexperts believe that the true growth
rate is far slower. “We still believe the
actual growth slowdown might be worse
than the headline official numbers,”
said Ting Lu, Nomura’s chief China
economist.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics
admitted that external instability and
slowing global growth had put the econ-
omy “under mounting downward
pressure”. But officials also sought to
paint a rosier picture of economic
conditions for the remaining three
months of the year.
“The growth rate has slowed down
but it is among the best in the world’s
major economies,” said Mao Shengyong,
spokesman at the statistics bureau.
“The next stage of the world economy
will probably continue to slow down.
But from our own internal perspective,
there are support factors. The trend of
steady economic growth in the fourth
quarter is guaranteed.”Xi challenge
China’s pace of growth hits 30-year low
World’s second-largest
economy rattled by trade
war and lower investmentD E M E T R I S E VA STO P U LO— WASHINGTONAs Donald Trump landed in Texas for a
“Make America Great Again” rally on
Thursday, after arguably the most
tumultuous period of his tenure, he
boasted that his handling of the self-
inflicted crisis on the Turkish-Syrian
border had produced a “great day for
civilisation”.
Moments earlier, 10,000km away in
Ankara, the Turkish capital, US vice-
president Mike Pence announced he
had convinced Turkey to agree to a
“ceasefire” to halt the week-long con-
flict in north-east Syria.
Mr Trump basked in glory even
though there was almost unanimous
agreement in Washington that his deci-
sion to remove US troops from north-
east Syria had given President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan the green light to attack
the same Kurdish forces that had been
critical in fighting Isis. More than 100
Republicans joined with Democrats in
the House on Wednesday to pass a reso-
lution censuring the decision.
Addressing tens of thousands of fans
in Dallas on Thursday, Mr Trump elabo-
rated on what he had earlier described
as a “strategically brilliant” strategy to
engineer a victory. “It was unconven-
tional what I did,” Mr Trump said. “Like
two kids in a lot, you have gotta let them
fight and then you pull them apart.”
It was quintessential Trump — argu-
ing his brilliance had found a solution to
a problem that most experts said he had
created, in a week that was full of the
impulsive decision-making, bombastic
rhetoric and defiant boundary-pushing
that has defined his presidency.
The White House said Mr Trump had
not given Mr Erdogan the green light to
invade Syria when they spoke on Octo-
ber 6. It then leaked a letter that Mr
Trump wrote to Mr Erdogan, in which
he warned him not to take action that
made the Turkish leader “the devil”. But
the letter was dated after Turkey had
begun the invasion.For Mr Trump, the details were irrele-
vant. The previous day he had called
Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic House
speaker, a “third-grade” politician in a
tense White House meeting that she left
early in protest. Minutes later, Ms Pelosi
stood in front of the West Wing and
declared that she had witnessed the
president having a “meltdown”.
The White House fired back by releas-
ing a photo of “crazy” Ms Pelosi standing
at a table across from Mr Trump who
was surrounded by white men. Trolling
Mr Trump with his weapon of choice,
she within hours installed the photo as
her banner image on Twitter.
At the same meeting, Mr Trump
called Jim Mattis, the retired general
who resigned as defence secretary in
December when Mr Trump first threat-
ened to leave Syria, as “the most over-
rated general” in American history.
Speaking at the Al Smith dinner in
New York on Thursday, Mr Mattis shotback. “I’m not just an overrated general,
I am the... world’s most overrated,” he
said to laughter. “I’m honoured to be
considered that by Donald Trump,
because he also called Meryl Streep an
overrated actress... So, I guess I’m the
Meryl Streep of generals.”
But Mr Mattis went further, saying
while he had earned his spurs on the
battlefield, “Donald Trump earned his
spurs in a letter from a doctor,” referring
to Mr Trump’s medical exemption to
avoid military service in Vietnam.
“Between me and Meryl, at least we’ve
had some victories,” he joked.
While Mr Trump was taking a victory
lap in Texas, his acting chief of staff,
Mick Mulvaney, was creating problems
in Washington at a news conference
intended to announce that Mr Trump
would host next year’s G7 summit at his
Doral golf resort in Miami.
Mr Mulvaney said there had been a
quid pro quo when Mr Trump withheldalmost $400m in military aid from
Ukraine because the president had
wanted help probing “corruption” in the
2016 US election — appearing to provide
House investigators with a damning
admission as they pursue the impeach-
ment inquiry into Mr Trump.
Hours before Mr Mulvaney spoke,
Gordon Sondland, the wealthy hotelier
who has been Mr Trump’s ambassador
to the EU, said the president had
ordered him to deal with Rudy Giuliani,
the president’s personal lawyer, on
Ukraine. Mr Mulvaney later claimed his
words had been misconstrued, but his
protest fell on deaf ears.
As for why Mr Trump had chosen
Miami for the G7, Mr Mulvaney said:
“There was one place... where we
actually had to figure out if we’re going
to have oxygen tanks for the partici-
pants because of the altitude,”
Editorial Commentpage 8
Opinionpage 9White House tumult.Turkish incursion
Trump claims victory after self-made crisis
Week of bombastic rhetoric
and defiant decision-making
sums up US president’s style
‘We still
believe theactual
growthslowdown
might beworse than
theheadline
officialnumbers’
Quintessential
Trump: ‘It was
unconventional
what I did’, the
US president
told a campaign
rally in Dallas
on Thursday
Andrew Harnik/APVA L E R I E H O P K I N S— BUDAPESTOn a sunny Thursday morning in Buda-
pest, Gergely Karacsony cycled over to
the grand Habsburg-era city hall to
take office as the capital’s new mayor —
carrying with him the hopes of those
Hungarians who would like to see the
end of Viktor Orban’s years as prime
minister.Until municipal elections held last Sun-
day, Mr Orban’s Fidesz party seemed to
have an almost unbreakable hold on the
country’s politics. Since Mr Orban
regained power in 2010, the opposition
had been divided and weak, losing
seven consecutive elections and holding
mayoral posts in only four cities.
But in a result no pollster predicted,
Mr Karacsony, a political science lec-
turer who leads a tiny Green party, beat
the Fidesz-backed incumbent mayor by
a 6-point margin while the opposition
took control of 10 other cities, changing
the mood of the country’s politics.
“This was the first time we had real
political competition” in recent years,
Mr Karacsony, 44, told the Financial
Times. “The main message is that this
government, Fidesz, will not be inpower forever. The simple fact of saying
that it is possible to beat them breaks a
psychological barrier.”
His insurrection was modelled on
similar triumphs in Istanbul and War-
saw, where the success of opposition
candidates has challenged entrenched
elites. It was also built on unprece-
dented co-operation between opposi-
tion forces, which Mr Karacsony said
would continue in the run-up to 2022
general elections.
“There was a synthesis of values
formed by the experiences of the past
nine years,” he said. “And every actor on
the opposition... knows that there is
no alternative to this.”
But as mayor, Mr Karacsony will not
be short of challenges. To run Budapest,
he has to collaborate with Mr Orban’s
government, while simultaneously
demonstrating his power to challenge it.
“He has to maintain co-operation
with the government, while the govern-
ment is not interested in his success,”
said Andras Biro-Nagy, director of
Budapest think-tank Policy Solutions.
“But [it] is also true that the govern-
ment is not interested in turning the
whole population of Budapest againstitself... If they react too aggressively
and start punishing dozens of cities,
then next time the revenge of the people
may be even stronger than now.”
The mayor will also need to navigate
the disparate interests of the five parties
that brought him to power, some of
which were bitter enemies.
His rainbow coalition goes from the
Socialist party, which was the successor
of the communist party, to the rightwing
Jobbik, which did not support his
candidacy but declined to field its own
candidate.
In wiretaps leaked two weeks before
the vote, Mr Karacsony was heard dis-paraging some Socialist candidates and
accusing them of corruption.
The campaign had been “severe”, Mr
Karacsony admitted. “It is behind us
now and it is time to focus on obligations
we have to the citizens,” he said.
Mr Karacsony said he would ask the
Central European University to keep as
many programmes in Budapest as pos-
sible. The university, founded byGeorge
Soros, the billionaire philanthropist and
foe of Mr Orban, recently opened in
Vienna after it was forced out by Mr
Orban’s government.
He is also expected to try to ban the
application in local government offices
of a labour law backed by Mr Orban that
raises the number of hours employers
can seek from workers. Protests against
the so-called “slave law” in December
were a catalyst for opposition unity.
According to Mr Biro-Nagy, the oppo-
sition still faces an uphill battle. Mr
Orban’s power remains strong — across
Hungary, Fidesz won more votes than
the opposition — and he retains a two-
thirds majority in parliament. However,
he said: “They got the first warning that
they are not invincible, and now every-
one in Hungary knows it.”Hungary
Budapest opposition mayor prepares to take on Orban
Gergely Karacsony: ‘Time to focus
on obligations we have to citizens’MAKE A SMART INVESTMENT
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Austen’sdescendantsinsisttheRiceportraitdepictsherasagirl—seemagazineBridgeman Art Library
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FEBRUARY 4^2
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THE RISE OF ECO-GLAM
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