Financial Times Europe - 19.10.2019 - 20.10.2019

19 October/20 October 2019 ★ FTWeekend 3

I N T E R N AT I O N A L

JA S O N K I R BY— TORONTO

If there is a single moment that crystal-
lises Justin Trudeau’s downward spiral
in the lead-up to Monday’s Canadian
election, it came in the early days of the
SNC-Lavalin scandal when the prime
minister was accused of putting pres-
sure on his former justice minister to
help the Quebec company avoid crimi-
nalcharges.
Mr Trudeau denied the allegation,
breezily suggesting that if Jody Wilson-
Raybould felt pressured, she would
have resigned. “Her presence in cabinet
should actually speak for itself,” he said
this year. Hours later Ms Wilson-
Raybould, Canada’s first indigenous
cabinetminister,quit.
The episode fuelled criticism that has
dogged Mr Trudeau throughout his first
term: that he is arrogant, out of touch
and not the progressive champion he
madehimselfouttobe.
That disparity between the soaring
rhetoric that powered his sweeping vic-
tory in 2015 — “sunny ways” and “doing
politics differently” — and his perform-
ance over the ensuing four years has
cometohauntMrTrudeau.
“If you set yourself up to be a paragon
of virtue and lord it over everyone, you
need to continue to be virtuous,” said
Lydia Miljan, an associate professor of
political science at the University of
Windsor, who draws a direct line from
MrTrudeau’shandlingoftheSNC-Lava-
lin controversy to his troubles now.
“Whenthemightyfall,theyfallhard.”
Latest polls suggest that Canada is on
course for a minority government and
not necessarily one led by Mr Trudeau.
As of Thursday afternoon 338Canada, a
poll aggregator, gave Mr Trudeau’s Lib-

erals a 12.2 per cent chance of winning

anothermajority,downdrasticallyfrom

63.3percentlessthanamonthago.

The likelihood of the Andrew Scheer-

led Conservatives winning more seats

than the Liberals, though still not

enough to form a majority, has risen

from13percentto43.7percentoverthe

sameperiod.

“This election looks like it’s ending

the way it began, with the two frontrun-

ners locked in a scrum, but the pitch has

only got muddier,” said Shachi Kurl, a

pollsterwithAngusReidInstitute.

It is all a far cry from the enthusiasm

that greeted Mr Trudeau’s win four

years ago. He built his 2015 majority on

a diverse coalition of centrist and left-

leaning voters who were drawn not just

to his charisma but also to the Liberals’

ambitious platform of ideas, such as

legalising cannabis, introducing a car-

bon tax and reducing child poverty, all

ofwhichhisgovernmentdelivered.

Along the way reality set in. President

Donald Trump’s threat to tear up the

North American Free Trade Agreement

consumed and distracted Mr Trudeau’s

cabinetformostofhisfirstterm.ButMr

Trudeau also damaged his brand —

from ethics violations and a disastrous

trip to India to broken promises and his

blackface photos. “ So much of what has

ailed the Liberals is that Justin Trudeau

and his people styled the party around

him, but when his brand broke there

wasn’talotmoretooffer,”saidMsKurl.

With their leader’s star power

depleted, the Liberals approached this

campaign from a defensive position.

Gone were the bold ideas of 2015. One of

Mr Trudeau’s most high-profile prom-

ises was a much-derided $2,000 camp-

ing bursary for low-income families,

delivered after he paddled a canoe up to

alakesidepressconference.

The Liberals wanted to hammer Mr

Scheer and his Conservatives as “back-

ward” on issues such as abortion,

LGBTQ rights, the environment and

immigration. “The Liberal strategy was

to demonise Andrew Scheer but that

became less palatable after the black-

face photos,” said Emmett Macfarlane,

an associate professor in political sci-

enceattheUniversityofWaterloo.

Remarkably, given how closely Mr

Trudeau has aligned himself with the

fight against climate change at home

and on the world stage, the environ-

mental file is now one of the biggest

threatstoMrTrudeau’sre-election,said

MrMacfarlane.

During his first term Mr Trudeau

tried to strike a balance between the

economy and the environment by both

supportingtheTransMountainPipeline

and imposing a carbon tax on every

province, but “he was not at all effective

in communicating that” to left-leaning

supporters,saidMrMacfarlane.

“It’s the left flank that’s giving them

most of the trouble,” he said, pointing to

significant gains in support for the

Green party and a resurgence in recent

weeks of the left-leaning New Demo-

craticparty(NDP).

That was clear outside a busy Toronto

transit station last Tuesday, as voters

jostled to take selfies with the young,

charismatic leader who has ignited

enthusiasm among millennial voters in

recent weeks: not Mr Trudeau but NDP

leader Jagmeet Singh. David Qian, 25,

who backed the Liberals in 2015, is sup-

porting Mr Singh because “the NDP are

the best bet for young people” this time

round.

Mr Singh could find himself with con-

siderable clout in a Liberal-led minority

government supported by the NDP. Or

theLiberals,NDPandGreenscouldsplit

the left-leaning vote and pave the way

foraslightConservativemajority.

Mr Scheer has vowed to tear up Mr

Trudeau’scarbontaxandreplaceitwith

policies to encourage the adoption of

green technologies and an ill-defined

plan to meet Canada’s emissions reduc-

tion targets by encouraging other coun-

tries to cut their carbon dioxide output

instead.

It is always possible the polls are

wrong and that disgruntled Liberals

begrudgingly back the party at the

last minute out of fear Mr Scheer

could become the next prime minister.

However, if Mr Trudeau does lose on

Monday, “he’s out” as Liberal leader,

saidMsMiljan.

Possible replacements include Mark

Carney, Bank of England governor, and

ChrystiaFreeland,foreignminister.

Credibility gap

leaves Trudeau

in survival fight

Canada PM’s poll prospects hit by claims

he has not lived up to progressive rhetoric

Election scrum: polls put Canada

on course for a minority

government not necessarily led

by Justin Trudeau, top right

Stephane Mahe/Reuters

A fiscal

conservative,

Mr Scheer has

pledged to return

the federal

government to a

balanced budget

within five years.

Mr Singh is the

first non-white

federal party

leader and has

been the

most dynamic

candidate on the

campaign trail.

The rivals

Andrew Scheer

Conservatives

Jagmeet Singh

New Democratic

party

The Aga Khan holiday

Mr Trudeau was ruled to have broken

conflict of interest rules over a 2016

holiday on an island in the Bahamas

owned by the Aga Khan, chair of the

Global Centre for Pluralism to which

his government endowed $15m.

India embarrassment

A 2018 trip turned into a fiasco after it

was revealed a Sikh extremist

convicted of attempting to murder an

Indian politician had been invited to a

reception with Mr Trudeau.

Electoral reform

Left-leaning voters were left

disillusioned by Mr Trudeau’s failure to

keep a 2015 promise to replace the

first-past-the-post electoral system.

SNC-Lavalin

Mr Trudeau violated federal ethics

rules by attempting to press his former

attorney-general to cut a deal with

SNC-Lavalin so the engineering group

could avoid corruption charges.

Black face

The revelation in the second week of

the campaign that Mr Trudeau wore

blackface make-up and dressed in faux

afros and turbans as recently as 2001

stunned supporters.

Scandals that marred

premier’s term

Timeline