The EconomistOctober 26th 2019 Britain 53B
efore thereferendum in 2016 European Union flags were as
rare as golden eagles in Britain. Today they are as common as
sparrows. Parliament Square is permanently festooned with them.
Activist Remainers flaunt flag-themed berets and t-shirts. On Oc-
tober 19th a million-strong army of People’s Vote supporters
marched on Westminster beneath a sea of gold and blue standards.
This points to one of the oddest paradoxes in this odd period in
British politics. It took a vote to leave the euto shock millions of
Britons into realising how much they liked it. Britain had always
been an outlier in believing that the euought to be little more than
a convenient trading arrangement. A couple of Eurobarometer
polls in 2015 found that the country came 28th out of 28 in terms of
people’s sense of European identity and 26th in terms of trust in
European institutions. Yet today a significant section of the popu-
lation thinks that being European is essential to its identity.
This is part of a bigger paradox: the more Britain struggles to
leave the eu, the more it embraces European-style politics. Since
the dawn of the democratic era Britain has practised two- or two-
and-a-bit-party politics compared with the continent’s multi-
party system. That is changing, accelerated by Brexit. The Scottish
National Party controls Scotland. The ruling Conservative Party is
45 mps short of a majority. The European Research Group of hard-
line Brexiteers acts as a party within the Tory party. The Liberal
Democrats could make big gains in the forthcoming general elec-
tion, especially if Brexit seems reversible.
For the past three years British politics has hung on problems
that are familiar to continental politicians, such as the difficulty of
assembling coalitions with minority parties and the power of dis-
gruntled factions to exercise a veto. It has also endured the disad-
vantages of continental politics without the advantages.
The case for the British two-party system is that it produces
“crunchy” results even at the price of leaving a large section of the
population feeling disenfranchised. Lately it has lost the redeem-
ing feature of crunchiness. Theresa May had to rely on the votes of
ten duppoliticians to keep her government afloat. Boris Johnson,
having lost 23 Tory mps, is living in parliamentary purgatory.
Creeping Europeanisation can also be detected in the rise of the
far right. The British two-party system was masterful at margin-alising extreme figures such as Oswald Mosley and Enoch Powell.
A more fragmented system is now making room for them in Brit-
ain just as it made room for Marine Le Pen in France, Matteo Salvini
in Italy and Viktor Orban in Hungary. Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party,
and before that his ukIndependence Party, have terrified main-
stream politicians by winning seats on local councils and in the
European Parliament.
Even as it becomes more European, British politics is also be-
coming more American. It is beginning to polarise around issues
of culture and identity in much the same way as American politics
has polarised. Politics is no longer about who gets what (which is
always a matter of compromise) but about profound questions of
identity (which is not). British politics is also becoming more pres-
idential. Jeremy Corbyn remains on top of the Labour Party despite
the hostility of his fellow mps. Tories elected Mr Johnson as their
leader not because he dutifully climbed the ranks but because of
his star power.
Britain has relied on an unwritten (or at least uncodified) con-
stitution, in sharp contrast to the United States and Europe. But
leaving the euhas raised constitutional questions that demand
more than improvised answers. It has also raised the possibility
that Britons will lose the panoply of rights guaranteed by the eu.
Britain has done a good job of preventing the courts from interfer-
ing in politics. Again, Brexit is changing that. The Supreme Court’s
decision to overrule Mr Johnson’s proroguing of Parliament could
be the beginning of a new period of judicial activism.
High on the list of British oddities is that it is a composite of
four nations—England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Holding this group together was always difficult given the differ-
ent sizes of the parts (England is ten times as populous as Scotland)
and the history of internal colonisation. It has been made vastly
more difficult by Brexit because Scotland and Northern Ireland
voted to remain. Brexit increases the chance that Scotland will
claim independence and, in the longer term, that Northern Ireland
will join the Irish Republic. It also increases the pressure for Amer-
ican- or German-style federalism. The only way to prevent Eng-
land from being seen to ride roughshod over the smaller nations of
the United Kingdom may be to create regional assemblies or more
powerful metropolitan governments.Britannia chained
A future Conservative government might be able to reverse the
drift away from exceptionalism. If Mr Johnson can win a working
majority, he will no longer depend on maverick factions and there-
fore will be less likely to end up in the Supreme Court. If he can
bind Scotland and Northern Ireland to England by big spending on
infrastructure, as he plans, he might be able to head off the forces
of nationalism. If he can bring off Brexit, he may be able to asphyx-
iate both the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats.
That is a lot of “ifs”. Though it has been reinforced by Brexit, the
de-exceptionalisation of British politics began well before 2016
with New Labour’s embrace of both constitutional reform and a
presidential style of government. It also feeds on powerful forces
that have nothing to do with Brexit, such as the collapse of defe-
rence and the rise of celebrity culture. Moreover, the next election
could produce another hung parliament, which will make pres-
sure for voting reform and constitutional reform irresistible.
Whatever happens in the Commons in the next few weeks, the
dream of some Brexiteers, of restoring Britain to what it was before
it entered the eu, is for the birds. 7Bagehot The end of exceptionalism
Leaving the EU is making Britain less British