SUSAN LUND is a Partner at McKinsey & Company and a leader of the McKinsey Global
Institute.
JAMES MANYIKA is a Senior Partner at McKinsey & Company and Chair of the McKinsey
Global Institute.
MICHAEL SPENCE is William R. Berkley Professor of Economics and Business at New
York University. He received the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2001.
July/August 2019 121The Global Economy’s
Next Winners
What It Takes to Thrive in the
Automation Age
Susan Lund, James Manyika, and
Michael Spence
T
he countries that once led the world toward economic open-
ness are retreating into protectionism. Over the past two and
a hal years, the United States has abandoned the Trans-PaciÃc Partnership and imposed taris on steel, aluminum, and a
wide range o Chinese goods. The United Kingdom is in the process
oÊ leaving the world’s largest free-trade area. And rising nationalist
sentiment is threatening to repeat these self-destructive acts else-
where. The rich world is turning inward.
Its timing couldn’t be worse. Even as critics o free trade gain the
upper hand, globalization, wholly o its own accord, is transforming
in rich countries’ favor. Economic growth in the developing world is
boosting demand for products made in the developed world. Trade
in services is up. Companies are moving production closer to their
customers so they can respond faster to changes in demand. Auto-
mation has slowed the relentless search for people willing to work for
ever-lower wages. And the greater complexity o modern goods
means that research, design, and maintenance are coming to matter
more than production.
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