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The Global Economy’s Next Winners

July/August 2019 123

In part, that’s because the global economy is rebalancing as China

and other countries with emerging markets reach the next stage o”

development. After several decades o” participating in global trade

mainly as producers, emerging economies have become the world’s

major engines o” demand. In 2016, for example, carmakers sold 40

percent more cars in China than they did in Europe. It is expected

that by 2025, emerging markets will consume two-thirds o” the

world’s manufactured goods and, by 2030, they will consume more

than hal” o” all goods.

China’s growing demand means that more o” what is made in China

is being sold there. In 2007, China exported 55 percent o” the con-

sumer electronic goods and 37 percent o” the textiles it produced; in

2017, those Ãgures were 29 percent and 17 percent, respectively. Other

emerging economies are following suit.

Developing countries also now rely less on intermediate imports.

China Ãrst stepped onto the global trading scene in the 1990s by im-

porting raw materials and parts and then assembling them into Ãn-

ished goods for export. But things have changed. In several sectors,

including computers, electronics, vehicles, and machinery, China now

produces far more sophisticated components, and a wider range o”

them, than it did two decades ago.

BRYAN

ANSELM

/ REDUX

Back in business: at an Amazon warehouse in Florence, New Jersey, August 2017